2009 Record: 4-12, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Jason Campbell, Rock Cartwright, Antwaan Randle El
Key Additions: Donovan McNabb, Jammal Brown, Trent Williams
I've said a number of times how competitive this division is, and I must say it again. In any other division a team like the Redskins would be a first or second place team, in the NFC East they're a third or fourth place team. They have made a lot of positive moves, ones that should bring them right into the playoff conversation. At the same time they have made a few questionable ones as well. They're tampering with an established defense that has been the reason for most of their success as of late, and they're relying on aging backs to rejuvenate a running game that has sputtered out in recent seasons. That being said, the upgrades they have made have been major and all addressing positions of need. Most of those upgrades have been on offense.
One of the biggest moves of the offseason was the acquisition of six time Pro Bowler Donovan McNabb (one of those seasons coming last year, by the way). McNabb was the biggest reason for the Eagles success in the division, leading them to eight playoff appearances, five division championships, five conference game appearances, and one conference championship over the course of ten seasons. I'll make a disclaimer first, Jason Campbell is a decent quarterback who can excel in an offensive system, he's not a quarterback who will lead an offense the way McNabb will, though. One of the Skins' issues going into the season will be their running game. Though it is a concern, the good news is that McNabb has been very successful in the past despite not having a light-out run game. He can carry an offense, and that's exactly what the Redskins were missing with Campbell.
The bad news is that the run game must improve. Last season they ranked 27th in the league in rushing with 1,510 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, and under 100 yards per game. Those numbers are dismal, and McNabb had better run support during his success with Philly. Though he has been given help, Clinton Portis will be looked to as the man primarily responsible for improving the run game. He only gained 494 yards last season when he started only eight games, but even extrapolated over an entire season his numbers have fallen off from the 1,200+ ones he was posting for the majority of his time in the league. He's still at the point in his career where he shouldn't be seeing a significant drop-off, but the mindset in Washington seems to be that fewer carries will equal better production, and he certainly could improve on his 4 YPC from last season.
His help in the backfield comes from two former Pro Bowlers in Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. Neither has made the Pro Bowl since at least 2007, though, and the feeling is they are on the down sides of their careers as well. Larry Johnson only rushed for 581 yards and a 3.3 average last year, and after three straight 1,200 yard plus seasons Willie Parker hasn't broken 800 yards in the past two seasons. Washington might not expect any of these backs to return to form, they may be satisfied with sub-1,000 seasons from all of them. What they do hope to do is get far more production from the backfield as a whole.
Also helping in this regard will be their offseason investment in offensive linemen. The two big acquisitions, Jammal Brown and Trent Williams, are both tackles and will help more in pass protection. It's another area they needed improvement in, as they were 29th in the league in sacks allowed last season. They were also fairly bad in the running game, though, and not only did they not make a significant upgrade, they released one of their most experienced guards. Randy Thomas played only two games last season due to injury, but has started every game he has played in over his ten year career. The only move they made at guard was drafting a rookie in the seventh round. Whether or not the guards can improve the run game is one of the bigger questions going into the season.
The other big question is how well will this team handle the switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4? There's so much going on in D.C. this year that the hiring of Mike Shanahan almost goes under the radar. He will most definitely get Washington's passing offense into gear, but the switch is a questionable move. Most of their front seven players are suited to a 4-3, including holdout Albert Haynesworth, and they only drafted one linebacker and no other defensive players. The good news is that the Redskins should be alright against the run. They were 16th in the league and if their linemen can adapt to the new system then the linebackers should be able to hold up. The problem is you want to be moving upwards from 16th in the league, not downwards as re-vamped defenses tend to do in their first year. If the front seven can't adapt to the new pass rush philosophy it could also hamper the secondary, which has been very strong lately. Washington was eight against the pass last season, and posted 40 sacks. Again, there's a problem of scheme, who knows if Haynesworth can fit in a 3-4 if he decides to play at all, and their other defensive star, Brian Orakpo, could have issues with it as well. If they falter the secondary suffers, which isn't good considering they should be looking to improve on their 26th-ranked 11 interceptions. This defense could be better than it has been in the past, but it could also be much worse. We won't know for sure until the season starts, but I expect the defense to fall off a little. In a division like this, that is something they cannot afford to let happen. It could be the factor that keeps them out of the playoffs.
Washington has improved vastly over this offseason, but large holes still remain. In other divisions they might have done enough, but New York and Dallas have also made some moves that will keep them extremely competitive and Washington has only enough to keep pace. They should probably get by an Eagles team that is going through some transitions, but they are a long shot to make a Wild Card berth. Much of their success hinges on their defense. They play a good deal of teams that could victimize a defense in transition, but if their defense picks up the scheme quickly they could surpass expectations. They certainly have the offense to victimize other teams, and that will win them a few games both in and out of their division, but in the end that probably won't be enough to get them into the playoffs.
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