Football is back, and one week of the pre-season is far from enough to satisfy me. I cannot wait until kickoff weekend in a few weeks, but until then pre-season will do. I can't wait to get into Bears analysis for the first time this season, but first I'll go over my thought son the AFC East.
Early Predictions:
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills
I found this division to be one of the hardest to call. All three of the top teams are very solid in most areas, but all three also have question marks. In the end I had to base it on the players that have reported so far and the way they match up against each other. I think Miami can outdo New England this year. The Pats are solid against the pass, but porous against the run. I think Miami can take advantage of that and use their dual threat, high-octane rushing attack to power past the Pats. Having Brandon Marshall should help ease things up, and it will be even better for Miami if they can get consistent pressure on Brady. I think they take the division. Right now the Pats' defense matches up well against the Jets' offense. The Pats can stop the pass pretty well and could force them to run it. If the Jets' running game picks up where it left off that shouldn't be a problem, but because of uncertainty I have to favor New England here. On the flipside, New England excels at the pass and could victimize a Revis-less Jets team. If Revis comes back that changes, the Jets might even leapfrog both the Pats and the Dolphins, but because of the way Wes Welker is playing so far and the presence of Brandon Marshall I have to drop them down to third and a longshot to make the playoffs without their shutdown corner. Buffalo will just be plain awful, perhaps historically so.
On to the Bears. It's hard to make too many judgements about the team from the pre-season, but it can often be a decent barometer. Here's what I saw from the Bears: there was some good and some bad. First the good, the offensive line looked great in pass protection. Sacks were a problem last year with Cutler getting sacked 35 times, and time in the pocket will be a much larger issue with Martz' new system. The Bears will have their work cut out for them facing ends like Jared Allen and Kyle Vanden Bosch, and blitz-heavy Green Bay twice a season. The good news is that the Chargers threw every blitz they had at the Bears and, aside from Forte getting burned on a corner blitz pickup, the first team unit picked them all up and gave Cutler time to throw.
The bad news on the line, however, is that the running game went nowhere. Chester Taylor and Forte couldn't get out of the backfield, and the only run production came from second year back Khalil Bell whose longest run went for a whopping seven yards. We saw plenty of this last season, backs not getting past the line, and though Martz won't focus on the run, if he can't get production from his backs when he needs it the Bears could be in trouble. Having no teeth in the run game allows teams to commit more defenders to coverage, and it would make it easier for teams to disrupt Martz' system. Hopefully things will get better in that area.
Passing was a strength for the offense. Hanie had some problems, but for a backup QB I thought he performed very well, throwing a touchdown pass to Devin Aromashodu. Speaking of DA, he continued to impress me and I will again state that I think he deserves to be starting. Hester is best suited for slot duty, DA is a clutch option as a starter. Aromashodu has earned the right to start, play the man who makes the plays, Lovie. Also impressive was Johnny Knox, who caught both of Cutler's two completions. Not only was he able to get past Quentin Jammer, but he also looked smart running routes and steady with his hands. He's looking like a definite starter this year, and it's well-deserved. The same can't be said for the rest of the receivers. Perhaps the poor play of Dan LeFevour factored into it, but the backups were dropping passes and blowing routes left and right. This may not be a problem in the regular season, as most of these players probably won't supplant any of the Bears' current starters at the position.
Defense was a mixed bag, but there was certainly a lot to be disappointed about. Some of the young ends looked good, although not outstanding. A lot of people have expressed disappointment in Pepper's performance, but I saw one play where he bumrushed the tackle that made me realize what he can do. San Diego was executing a lot of quick passes anyways, which means the pressure won't always get there. That's where it falls on the linebackers and secondary to make plays, and they failed miserably. The corners continued to get beat on medium range passes and give up easy third down opportunities. Bowman and Tillman might be solid in the regular season, but most everyone behind them can't be counted on judging from this game. The safeties weren't great either. Daniel Manning continues to look out of place at the position, Chris Harris made a key mistake that cost a touchdown, and Al Afalava looked dismal in all aspects, even missing a block on a punt that allowed the kick to be blocked. The one bright spot was rookie Major Wright, who looked like he belonged as a starter. He went down with a finger injury that will require surgery, but hopefully he makes it back for the start of the regular season, as he will definitely be an asset.
Finally run defense. Brian Urlacher looked great in his return, but the rest was a mixed bag. Lance Briggs whiffed on a tackle that would have gone for a loss and instead went for a first down, and Nick Roach made plenty of mistakes along with most of the other young backers. Pisa Tinoisamoa looked good, though, and could be close to regaining his starting job from Roach. The run defense is going to have to get better overall, though. We cannot afford to miss tackles and blow assignments against the quality running backs we will be facing in the regular season.
Briefly touching on the Sox, I said beating Minnesota and Detroit would be key, and so far I have been right. We lost the lead and now trail the Twins by three games, mostly because of losses to the Tigers and Twins. We're going to have to do better if we want to make the playoffs.
Antti Niemi is looking more and more like a jerk to me. At first I was frustrated by the Hawks letting all these big names players go, but in Niemi's situation he was demanding too much. They signed Turco, who has virtually equal stats as Niemi and more experience, for a lot less. On top of that, Turco owns the league record for most shutouts in a playoff series. Keeping Niemi would have been nice, the benefit of that would be having a younger goalie and a more long-term solution, but he was simply asking for too much.
Finally, I'd like to rant a bit about switching schemes. It's been a pretty popular trends in the NFL, this year's switches put the 3-4 as the most popular defense in the league. I'm not criticizing the 3-4 itself, but sometimes it's better to stay with the 4-3, specifically when the personnel of the team is suited for that scheme. Dom Capers just instituted his 3-4 defense in Green Bay last season with some success; the defense finished second in total defense, first in run defense, eleventh in sacks, and first in interceptions. This success can be attributed in part to Dom Capers, but the players also played an integral role. Aside from Aaron Kampman, who ended up with diminished playing time, they had a host of players, including Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk, and Johnny Jolly, who were suited to the 3-4. They also drafted to fill positions, with the biggest pick being linebacker Clay Matthews, but also taking a 3-4 nose tackle in B.J. Raji.
The flip side to this, however, are teams who don't have the right personnel in place. Buffalo, for instance, struggled heavily against the run last season. New Coach Chan Gailey decided to switch to a 3-4 despite playing all the same players, who were drafted to play in a 4-3. Their defensive lineman and linebackers were already struggling against the run, and putting them in a 3-4 scheme won't solve anything. In fact, it will probably hamper things seeing as how there will be more demand for production. Linemen will have to be tougher up front and linebackers will have to be faster and tackle harder. It's ridiculous to think this will be done with the same personnel. Also, Buffalo ran a successful scheme in the secondary, switching schemes messes with that and asks players to behave differently. Blitzes are key in a 3-4, and defensive backs will have to be more aware in pass coverage. Part of the Bills' success last season was the scheme of coordinator Perry Fewell, and in a new scheme it is questionable whether the Buffalo secondary can perform as well. Sometimes these switches are a good thing, as in Green Bay, but in situations like Buffalo's they can be a costly mistake.
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