AFC East Part One: Jetting to the Top

The AFC East has been all about the Patriots for the past decade, but that could be starting to change very soon.  The Pats dominated weak contenders like the Dolphins and Jets back then, but those teams have made some very good efforts at rebuilding and acquiring talent.  Bill Belichick isn't looking like the coaching genius he's been made out to be after a cheating controversy and some questionable play calls in recent seasons.  Rex Ryan is on the upswing, and Tony Sparano doesn't seem ready to abandon the upward momentum that carried the Phins to a division Title in 2008.  There are a lot of competitive teams being fielded this season, and the question of who will take the division will likely rest on who can get their best players all on the field for the longest amount of time.  Injuries, holdouts, and an expectation for young players to step up permeate through all of these teams, and the coach that can pull his team together will be the one who takes the division crown.  I'll start out with the team that went from finishing third in the division two years in a row to playing the Colts in the Conference Championships.

New York Jets

2009 Record: 9-7, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: 2-1
Key Losses: Leon Washington, Thomas Jones, Alan Faneca, Kerry Rhodes
Key Additions: Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes, LaDanian Tomlinson, Braylon Edwards

It's been a long road to the top for the Jets; before last season they hadn't had a playoff appearance since 2006, a playoff win since 2004, or a Conference Championship appearance since 1998.  Rex Ryan turned that around last season, playing a rookie quarterback behind a terrific run game and defense and taking the team all the way to the Conference game. 

Offense is the one area that left something to be desired last season, especially in the passing game, but it could be the strength of the team this year.  Most of the team's major losses have been in the running game, but most of its major additions have been in the passing game.  Losing Thomas Jones and Leon Washington is big.  Washington, when he was healthy, was one of the best number two backs in the league.  Jones was a perennial 1,000 yard rusher and his presence will be missed.  They were released, though, in part due to the performance of Shonn Greene at the end of last season.  Greene Gained 540 rushing yards with a 5.0 YPC average in limited play last season and Rex Ryan, who is committed to the running game, has plenty of faith in him.  Of all the backs who will be starting this season who have something to prove, Greene probably has the best chance to succeed playing behind a good line on a run-oriented team.

The bigger area of concern is the line, in fact, as the Jets lost one of their top stars in guard Alan Faneca.  Faneca was particularly instrumental in the run game, and the Jets will be hard pressed to replace him.  They don't harbor any illusions about replacing a 9-time Pro Bowler, but Rex Ryan, as with the running backs, thinks he has a suitable replacement ready.  Unlike with the guards, however, the Jets also made a huge pickup at running back signing All-Pro LaDanian Tomlinson.  Tomlinson has been falling off in recent seasons, but the Jets believe that's due in part to a line that didn't open up running lanes and that Tomlinson will be at least a productive back behind their line.  Again, the loss of Faneca becomes a question, but Faneca was not the only piece of a line that helped New York's backs to over 2,700 rushing yards last season. 

Perhaps of greater concern is the number of sacks given up.  Although they were 11th in the league, they gave up 30 sacks to their rookie QB.  Mark Sanchez threw for the second most interceptions in the league last season, and pressure is always a factor when that many picks are thrown.  They don't have a clear solution for whoever plays tackle opposite D'Brickashaw Ferguson, but they took a tackle in the second round.  It could turn out to be a problem area or a pleasant surprise.

Also a factor in those picks was an inexperienced receiving corps.  This year's corps is almost completely new with Laverneus Coles, Santonio Holmes, and Braylon Edwards leading it.  It's a corps of a lot of players with question marks, but a lot of players who have also produced in the past.  If these players play to their potential they could be extremely dangerous, but at worst they are all veterans and should be better able to assist Sanchez than they were last year.  Also of note are Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery, who should also prove reliable targets for Sanchez.  As crazy as it sounds, going into the season the Jets' passing game looks to have fewer questions than their running game.

Also a bit strange is the way the defense is shaping up.  After some early acquisitions they looked to have improved even more on a unit that ranked first in the NFL last season in total defense.  They lost Kerry Rhodes but picked up Antonio Cromartie, leaving them stacked at cornerback but a little more thin at safety.  That wouldn't be so problematic if it weren't for the holdout of the player Rex Ryan calls the best corner in the league, Darrelle Revis.  Not to get into the situation too deeply here, but Revis is simply an integral part of that defense.  They have good pressure, and starting next to Cromartie wouldn't be the worst thing for rookie Kyle Wilson, but you simply do not replace a player like Revis.  Wilson could outperform all expectations, he will not be as good as Revis.

That being said, on a defense this good losing Revis isn't an end-all.  They have Cromartie and they have a front seven that accumulated 32 sacks last season and ranked 8th in the league against the run.  Still, they got beat in the playoffs by the passing game and though it probably won't affect them getting to the post-season if Revis doesn't play, it might affect their chances of going deep again.  It could also factor into their regular season, though, as they play a good deal of pass-heavy teams.  The North divisions from both Conferences have more than a few quarterbacks who could benefit from Revis riding the bench, and the Broncos and Texans could take advantage as well.  Inside their division they have to deal with Tom Brady, although Chad Henne could be shut down if the Jets are as successful against the run with the Dolphins as they have been in the recent past.  The Jets have a very decent shot at winning the division, but a lot of things must line up right.  They need unproven players and older players to step up and play to their full potential, and they need Revis on the field.  If all that happens they are locks to win the division and get into the playoffs, if not they should at least be good enough to get back into the playoffs, though the division is less of a sure thing.