2009 Record: 11-5, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: 0-1
Key Losses: Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Kevin Curtis
Key Additions: Hank Baskett, Brandon Graham, Nate Allen
I told you I wasn't finished with the aviary puns. I've talked extensively about how competitive this division is, yet Philadelphia has been at the top of the division for five of the past nine years. They have made the playoffs seven of those nine years, including five Conference Championship appearances and one Superbowl appearance. Their domination appears to be over, though, as Dallas has secured its place atop the division behind quarterback Tony Romo. The Eagles fell to the Boys in convincing fashion last season, and they have their work cut out for them getting back to the top. That will be a harder task now that the cornerstone for the team throughout all that success, Donovan McNabb, has left for division rival Washington. Coach Andy Reid would argue that the rest of the team is still in tact, but with a defense last season that stuttered with some younger players and relied on McNabb's arm to win, this could turn out to be a bigger rebuilding process than Reid thinks.
The good news for them is that there hasn't been excessive turnover. Aside from McNabb, the biggest player to leave was Brian Westbrook. Westbrook has had injury problems as of late, and they feel they can replace his presence between last year's breakout LeSean McCoy and new acquisition Mike Bell. The Philly offense has never really relied on the run game, though, and I don't expect that to change. That's more bad news for new starting QB Kevin Kolb, as the biggest success of young QBs has largely been behind a good running game and defense. Typically quarterbacks struggle when asked to carry a team, with the exception being Aaron Rodgers. Kolb is drawing many comparisons to Rodgers, but the skill level just does not seem to be the same. Kolb has struggled at times with interceptions and completion percentage, and does not have the same ability to move outside the pocket as McNabb. Perhaps on a team like San Francisco Kolb would excel, but in Philly trying to fill McNabb's shoes, I do not see him being a breakout. He will probably be good enough to retain the job during the season and in any other division that may be fine, but I do not see him improving enough t carry this team into the playoffs and beyond the way McNabb did. He may improve with more experience in subsequent seasons, but the instantaneous success that Rodgers experienced should not be expected by Philly fans.
Not only is his running game average, but Kolb's offensive line will be a problem if it plays the way it did last year. McNabb had a gift for moving outside the pocket and making throws on the run, and that could make the Eagles' 21st ranked sack count go even higher. The lack of a run game is bad thing for a young QB, 38 sacks make that even worse. The good news on offense is that the receiving corps is sensational. The young duo of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin is an explosive one with a penchant for making plays both in the long game and in YAC. Jason Avant and Brent Celek are always reliable, and the addition of Hank Baskett should at least make up for the loss of Kevin Curtis, and could possibly be an improvement. These receivers will provide some much-needed stability for Kolb, but they won't completely alleviate his problems. All in all, this could be a high yardage, high interception season for Kolb; what will be a key factor in deciding if it is a success or failure is the number of touchdowns he throws and the timing of his picks.
Defense just hasn't been the same in Philly since they lost their defensive genius, Jim Johnson. Though the fault doesn't always lie with his protegé, Sean McDermott, the defense has dropped off under his tenure. Most notably, the blitz schemes are not as elaborate under McDermott, and many analysts think that much of the Eagles' success this season lies on his shoulders. He has also lost a significant number of players recently, though, and the youth movement on defense definitely accounts for some of his growing pains. One area of concern has been pass rush, with Trent Cole being seemingly out on an island on the defensive line. They've made a large commitment to getting him some help at end, drafting ends in the first, third, and fifth round. They are going to need increased production at the position, and though it isn't likely that all three ends are busts, it remains a possibility that they do not live up to expectations.
The rest of the Eagles' defense remains solid, they ranked third in sacks, fourth in interceptions, and ninth against the run. They seemed to have problems with consistency, though, as they ranked nineteenth in points per game. Most Philly fans would cite the pass rush as the biggest concern on defense, but the bigger concern in my mind is scoring defense and the secondary. Philly addressed this by drafting a safety in the second round and picking up some backup at the position off the street, but the success of this team could depend on how fast Nate Allen matures. Other safeties are not likely to improve drastically, and the burden will be on him to patch up the biggest hole in the Eagles' D.
Rebuilding for the Eagles means something different than it does for most teams. The Eagles still have a great defense, but to be competitive in the East it must be even better. They still have playmakers on offense that could turn the tide on other teams, but they need more to beat their division rivals. The biggest blow for this team is losing Donovan McNabb, who carried the team when other parts slumped. In almost any other division this team would be looked at as a competitor, but in the East they could be looking at the first stage of a rebuilding process that could last a couple years. Kolb will have to get much better to take this team to the top of the East, and that isn't likely to happen in one season as starter. The defense will have to get better, and it's unreasonable to expect all of their young players will make the leap to elite NFL players immediately. The future still looks bright for Philadelphia, but immediate success should not be expected.
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