Monday, August 16, 2010

AFC East Part Three: Sunny Horizons

Miami Dolphins



2009 Record: 7-9, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Joey Porter, Justin Smiley, Ted Ginn, Jr.
Key Additions: Brandon Marshall, Jared Odrick, Karlos Dansby

Three years ago the Dolphins were one of the worst teams in the NFL, posting a 1-15 record.  After a quick rebuilding by coach Tony Sparano they beat out the Patriots to make the playoffs with an 11-5 record.  Since then they've had to address problems at key positions, including a QB carousel kept going mostly by injuries.  After a pretty solid season by second year quarterback Chad Henne last year, the Dolphins have built on their solid foundation and look ready to improve on their 7-9 record.  That could be easier said than done in a tough division, and doing so will require getting past the always competitive Patriots and the breakout Jets.  They have plenty of weapons, though, and should be a force to be reckoned with.

A lot has been made of what Chad Henne is, but what should also be talked about is what he is not.  He is not an elite quarterback, maybe not even a franchise QB, but he is a reliable starter that fits the offense.  He had a nice completion percentage last season, over 60, and almost 2,900 yards, which isn't bad in a run-heavy offense.  He also started only 13 games, so he almost certainly would have been a 3,000+ yard passer.  That being said, he only had 12 touchdowns to go with his 14 interceptions.  The blame isn't all on him, though.  As stated before, Henne is a QB who excels in a system.  The tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams prevents defenses from focusing on stopping the pass, but he also needs help in other areas.  He was sacked 26 times last season, out of the 34 total sacks the Miami line gave up.  His receiving corps has also been noticeably thin. 

Thankfully for him, the team has made strides in improving those positions.  All-star receiver Brandon Marshall will certainly be a boost for Henne, and they've also made an effort to go out and reinforce their line.  They drafted a guard in the third round, and singed a couple of free agent linemen.  None of them are slam dunks, though, and losing veteran Justin Smiley won't help.  The line should be at least as good in the run game as it was last year, though, and having more reliable weapons at receiver should also help.  There might be added pressure on Henne to get the ball out quicker than he has, and it will remain an area of question going into the season.

Defense is another area that hurt the Dolphins last season.  They were 22nd in the league in yards per game, 25th in points per game, and 16th in interceptions.  The biggest are that Miami excelled in on defense was sacks, getting to the quarterback 44 times, third best in the league.  Miami's offseason moves on defense should concern fans, though.  Despite having a good pass rush, many of Miami's defensive moves were acquiring defensive linemen and linebackers.  They got rid of under-performing safety Gibril Wilson, but replaced him only with a fifth round rookie.  Their only other move in the secondary was in the fifth round taking a corner, and it remains an area of concern for them.

The pass rush should be solid as ever.  They lost Joey Porter, but gained takeaway specialist Karlos Dansby.  They drafted four linebackers and spent their first-round selection on an end, and signed six more D-linemen and linebackers in free agency.  This defense should be high-powered, and it wouldn't come as a surprise to see their average numbers against the run from last season improve.  For all of that, though, they're still vulnerable to the pass and they play some very good passing teams.  Miami's success this season very well may depend on how their pass offense plays compared to their opponents'.

Miami's season is going to rely very much on execution.  They have plenty of talent at most positions, but they will need to make the most of it.  They have plenty of games against opponents that match up well against them, with both North divisions having some potent passing attacks.  In addition their swing games against Oakland and Tennessee could be potential problems, and it will all come down to execution.  The talent they added and the presence of Coach Sparano puts them in a good position to win, but nothing is guaranteed for them yet.

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