AFC North Part Two: Pushing Forward

Cincinnati Bengals

2009 Record: 10-6, First in Division
2009 Playoff Record: 0-1
Key Losses: Laverneus Coles, Shaun Smith, Larry Johnson
Key Additions: Terrell Owens, Carlos Dunlap, Jordan Shipley

For the past few seasons the Bengals have been hyping a return to the playoffs under Marvin Lewis, and every season they seem to come up just short.  Many times it's because they're hampered by injury, but last season they put together a relatively injury-free season and got back to the post-season under quarterback Carson Palmer.  After an early exit, the Bengals are looking to get to the playoffs two straight years in a row, and they look to have the right personnel in place to do it.

The good news is that the Bengals were one of the NFL's best defenses last season, ranking fourth in overall defense.  They've retained almost all of their personnel from a team that swept their division last season.  They don't seem ready to repeat that accomplishment as all of their division opponents have made major upgrades, but they are in a position to be a force within their division.  Like the rival Ravens, the Bengals were in the top ten in all major defensive categories except for sacks.  Though they got through the regular season near the middle of the league here, it could have hurt them during their playoff loss to the Jets, in which rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez victimized them for 182 yards and a touchdown while never being brought to the ground.  They clearly need a better pass rush to get farther in the playoffs, but have only made upgrades through the draft, taking Carlos Dunlap in the second round and Roddrick Muckelroy in the fourth.  They do have some big names along the defensive front-Tank Johnson, Robert Geathers, Antwan Odom, Dhani Jones, and Rey Maualuga-but their sack production will have to increase nonetheless.

Offense has its own concerns.  Since the last time the Bengals went to the playoffs, taking the division in 2005, they have had problems with the durability of Carson Palmer.  Though he did make it through last season, those concerns have yet to be assuaged as he did give the Bengals staff a scare at various points during the season.  Their hopes still rest on him and his arm, though, as the Bengals clearly are not the same team under backup J.T. O'Sullivan.  Luckily for Palmer he has an excellent running back to keep the balance in the offense and weapons at receiver to help him out.  Ced Benson re-emerged as an elite back last year, rushing for over 1,000 yards, and was a keystone to the Bengals' offense.  Now instead of a one-dimensional attack, the tandem of Palmer and Ochocinco had a run game backing them up, and it paid off in getting them to the playoffs. 

In the payoffs there was a deficiency, though, mostly at the receiver position.  Ochocinco is a top receiver, but he clearly needs some help.  Laverneus Coles didn't cut it last season, and the Bengals were set to take a chance on former Bucs receiver Antonio Bryant before he was released due to being out of shape.  The Bengals are probably holding out some hope that third round pick Jordan Shipley will produce right away, but they also got some protection for if he doesn't by signing all-pro wideout Terrell Owens.  Owens may not be all that he used to be, but he is still and excellent deep threat and one of the better receivers in this league.  The tandem of him and Ochocinco should click nicely with an offense that already has a good set of weapons in place.

Their schedule could be the biggest cause for concern, as they play one of the NFL's fastest rising divisions in the AFC East.  I expect them to have some competitive matches against the NFC South, though, and their playoff potential will be tested in facing two 2009 division champions in the Colts and Chargers.  All the teams in their division have upgraded so don't expect another sweep, but they could be in a position to dominate the Steelers and Browns and win as many as five division games.  They could take the division this year, but I expect them to be a Wild Card team instead.  Look for them to be right in the middle of the scrum for a Wild Card berth near the end of the season and giving other AFC teams looking for playoff hope a good fight.

AFC North Part One: Paradigm Shift

The AFC North has always had a reputation as a rough and tumble division.  The Steelers built their legacy on strong defensive teams, the Ravens have been among the toughest on defense since they entered the league, and the Bengals have made a recent commitment to building a great defense.  The Browns shouldn't be looked at as pushovers either, as they've made some upgrades in order to regain a competitive team in this division.  Despite the Steelers recent dominance, the Bengals have secured their place as a division contender and Baltimore is never to be counted out.  This division could end up being up for grabs late in the season, and should be one of the better stories to watch as the season progresses.

Baltimore Ravens

2009 Record: 9-7, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Quinn Sypniewski, Samari Rolle
Key Additions: Ken Hamlin, Walt Harris, Anquan Boldin

For a long while now when you thought of the Ravens, you thought defense.  They were a defense-oriented team when they moved from Cleveland, they were defense-oriented when they won the Superbowl, and they've been defense-oriented ever since.  That all changed last season with the emergence of Joe Flacco and Ray Rice as elite players at their positions.  Baltimore was usually favored to make the playoffs based on their defensive strength, now they're favored based on their offensive strength.  That doesn't mean defense won't factor into things, but it might not be as big of a plus as Ravens fans think.  Many of their defensive stars are getting old, and there has been a question for the past couple of years as to if this defense can replace its veterans and still maintain their edge.  Offseason additions to the offense will ensure that the birds will get to the playoffs, but can their defense carry them the distance in January?  It's a question that could haunt this team until they prove they can repeat the success of their predecessors from a decade ago.

The good news for the Ravens is that they have virtually no turnover due to releases.  Their only two were listed above, and only Rolle is a significant loss.  The bad news are the losses they're sustaining due to injury.  Their star special teamer, Brendon Ayanbadejo, is still on injured reserve and their star safety, Ed Reed, could miss a significant chunk of the season.  The good news for the Ravens is that they made significant investments to help with these losses, including Walt Harris and Ken Hamlin.  Both players are all-stars when performing at their peak.  Like many others on this team, though, including another defensive standout in Ray Lewis, they are aging and at increased risk for injury.  It seems that the Ravens have been very susceptible to the injury bug recently anyways, and if one of these players goes down it could mean the end of their hopes of going deep into the playoffs.  The defense is otherwise solid, finishing in the top 10 in all major defensive categories besides sacks.  They've also made a significant investment there, as they drafted two defensive linemen in the second round and signed a couple more off the street.  The Ravens' defense is looking good on paper, fans only need to hope it stays that way for 16 games or more.

In the past offense would have been a question mark, but this year looks different.  They've been steadily improving on that side of the ball, with a star player at left tackle, quarterback, and a dangerous trio at running back.  They made a huge splash on the offensive side by getting Anquan Boldin in the offseason, and he will definitely benefit perennial workhorses Todd Heap and Derrick Mason.  They also signed speedster wideout Donté Stallworth to give them an option in the deep game, but he's going to be sidelined for much of the season due to injury.  They could be looking at options to replace him in that role, but they also could be looking to replace him with current roster players.  It doesn't look like the injury will significantly alter their chances of winning right now, but they still look better with him on the field than they do with him on the sidelines.

Still, this offense should be explosive under Flacco.  Amid all the hype of young quarterbacks Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Mark Sanchez the past couple of seasons, Flacco remains the one who stands out above the rest.  He has some very impressive numbers, and with more offensive weapons at his disposal he should thrive this year.  Of course he hasn't been perfect and he still needs to take one last step before reaching the level of other young standouts like Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers, but he is well on his way there.  He, Boldin, and Rice ensure that this team will be solid during the regular season, and they should ensure a playoff berth.  Despite all the talk about great quarterback play winning Superbowls, though, I'm still sold on the notion that defense wins them.  For all the success their offense will have their defense will have to step up, especially in the post-season.

Baltimore is a solid team top to bottom.  They have some slight injury questions, but they have no glaring holes on either side of the ball.  If their defense plays as well as they did last season they should have no reason to worry at all, as their offense is primed to be one of the better in the AFC.  By no means are their games the toughest in the league, either, and they match up very well against many of their opponents.  They could generate six to eight games outside of their division alone, and if they play their division well they could have one of the best records in the league.  That's no easy feat, as the Steelers and Bengals each look tough coming off great seasons, but Baltimore looks to have done enough to secure the Division crown this year.

NFC East Wrap-Up, The Big One

The regular season start is getting closer, and the Sox are starting to fade from the playoff race.  That means the biggest topic right now is going to be football, and I've got plenty to talk about.  I'll be going into my top teams of the past decade as the season begins and I've got my full season preview coming up pretty soon, but today I want to talk about the big game itself.  First I'll give my outlook on the NFC East.

Early Predictions:

Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles

Despite this being a competitive division, I think the direction it is going to take is pretty clear-cut.  Look at this division as two-tiered, the Cowboys and the Giants are probably going to be the top two teams, and while I think the Cowboys are going to end up on top the G-men could surprise me.  The Redskins and Eagles are going to be the bottom two teams.  They both have questions in major areas and could both finish last in the division based on those areas, but I believe the presence of McNabb puts the Redskins a cut above the Eagles and new starter Kevin Kolb.  The great thing about this division is that teams can always surprise.  Philly still has a great D, but can their offense keep up?  If it can, they could make another playoff run.  McNabb will improve the offense, but can the Skins' defense switch to a 3-4 and stay competitive?  If everything clicks as well as it possibly could they could easily take the division.  Dallas looks like the favorite right now, but they still have offensive line issues and problems in the secondary, they're not a lock by any means.  I've been saying for a while now that the East isn't as great as everyone makes it out to be.  Despite the competitiveness the same teams always seem to end up on top.  I don't see a break in that trend, but as usual the ride during the regular season will be up and down, even if it leads to expected results.

Now onto the Superbowl.  The NFL is commonly regarded as the professional league most suited to parity, and for good reason.  The salary cap rules and profit sharing have led to a league where there is always a surprise contender in the playoffs, and where surprise teams often go deep.  a recent example would be the Jets, who made a surprise push near the end of the season and went all the way to the AFC Championship Game.  The Dolphins went from one of the worst teams in the league to Division Champions a couple of years ago, and the Giants upset the heavily favored Patriots to win teh Superbowl.  Despite this, the number of teams that have won the big game is surprisingly low, just over half of the teams in the league have won it.  There are c couple of different factors at work here, for one the relative youth of the Superbowl in comparison to other professional championships.  Also factoring into this is the presence of expansion teams, who make up a good percentage of the teams that have never won.  Still, of the eight expansion teams created since the inaugural Superbowl (counting the Browns as one instead of the Ravens due to them having to create a new roster), five of the eight have gone to the Superbowl and two have won it. 

This brings us back to the question of how competitive the league really is, though.  Yes, some expansion teams have won, but the majority of Superbowls have been won by teams who already have one under their belts.  Seven teams have three or more Superbowl wins, and three have five or more.  Fourteen of the forty-five Superbowl wins belong to teams with one or two wins, meaning thirty-one are by teams considered to be dynasties during their winning period.  Furthermore, 14 teams have never won one, and of those only four have been created in the past ten years. 

This may seem like domination, but it still speaks to the competitiveness of this league.  Despite never winning a Superbowl, ten of those teams have played in the big game.  Some teams, such as Buffalo and Minnesota, have been in a good number of Superbowls and not won.  Other teams have come down to the wire in Superbowl games, such as when the Titans made a now historic two minute drive down the field, completed a pass at the one yard line, and were stopped inches short of the goal line in one of the game's iconic moments.  The number of teams that have won the Superbowl is not indicative of a failure to create competitive playoffs.  On the contrary, it is indicative of how competitive teams must be to win the big game.  It shows that teams have to play their best to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and that doing so will immortalize them forever, even if they never reach that plateau again.  For all the teams like the Titans who came just one play short or the Bills who lost four Superbowls in a row, there are always teams like the Buccaneers who upset a team that was so heavily favored many were predicting it wouldn't be worth watching in the Raiders, or like the Saints who only needed one appearance in a Superbowl after 43 years to get their first League Title. 

This season it is very likely that a team with three or five Superbowl wins like the Cowboys, Packers, or Patriots will expand their collection of Lombardi Trophies, or that a team with two wins like the Giants, Broncos, or Colts will enter that upper echelon of NFL teams.  It is also just as likely, though, that a team like the Chiefs could pull a complete turn around a la the 2008 Dolphins and win their second Superbowl, or that a team that's been sitting in mediocrity for a few seasons could pull a turnaround similar to the one New Orleans pulled going from 8-8 to Superbowl Champions.  It's also very possible that a team could emulate the success of such Cinderella seasons as the Superbowl seasons of the Rams, Jets, or Buccaneers.  The great thing about this league is that at this time of the year any team is just as likely to get to the big game as any other.  Winning the big game may be a much taller order, but given the payoff, I don't think the players or the fans would have it any other way.

NFC East Part Four: Crash Landing

Philadelphia Eagles

2009 Record: 11-5, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: 0-1
Key Losses: Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Kevin Curtis
Key Additions: Hank Baskett, Brandon Graham, Nate Allen


I told you I wasn't finished with the aviary puns.  I've talked extensively about how competitive this division is, yet Philadelphia has been at the top of the division for five of the past nine years.  They have made the playoffs seven of those nine years, including five Conference Championship appearances and one Superbowl appearance.  Their domination appears to be over, though, as Dallas has secured its place atop the division behind quarterback Tony Romo.  The Eagles fell to the Boys in convincing fashion last season, and they have their work cut out for them getting back to the top.  That will be a harder task now that the cornerstone for the team throughout all that success, Donovan McNabb, has left for division rival Washington.  Coach Andy Reid would argue that the rest of the team is still in tact, but with a defense last season that stuttered with some younger players and relied on McNabb's arm to win, this could turn out to be a bigger rebuilding process than Reid thinks.

The good news for them is that there hasn't been excessive turnover.  Aside from McNabb, the biggest player to leave was Brian Westbrook.  Westbrook has had injury problems as of late, and they feel they can replace his presence between last year's breakout LeSean McCoy and new acquisition Mike Bell.  The Philly offense has never really relied on the run game, though, and I don't expect that to change.  That's more bad news for new starting QB Kevin Kolb, as the biggest success of young QBs has largely been behind a good running game and defense.  Typically quarterbacks struggle when asked to carry a team, with the exception being Aaron Rodgers.  Kolb is drawing many comparisons to Rodgers, but the skill level just does not seem to be the same.  Kolb has struggled at times with interceptions and completion percentage, and does not have the same ability to move outside the pocket as McNabb.  Perhaps on a team like San Francisco Kolb would excel, but in Philly trying to fill McNabb's shoes, I do not see him being a breakout.  He will probably be good enough to retain the job during the season and in any other division that may be fine, but I do not see him improving enough t carry this team into the playoffs and beyond the way McNabb did.  He may improve with more experience in subsequent seasons, but the instantaneous success that Rodgers experienced should not be expected by Philly fans.

Not only is his running game average, but Kolb's offensive line will be a problem if it plays the way it did last year.  McNabb had a gift for moving outside the pocket and making throws on the run, and that could make the Eagles' 21st ranked sack count go even higher.  The lack of a run game is bad thing for a young QB, 38 sacks make that even worse.  The good news on offense is that the receiving corps is sensational.  The young duo of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin is an explosive one with a penchant for making plays both in the long game and in YAC.  Jason Avant and Brent Celek are always reliable, and the addition of Hank Baskett should at least make up for the loss of Kevin Curtis, and could possibly be an improvement.  These receivers will provide some much-needed stability for Kolb, but they won't completely alleviate his problems.  All in all, this could be a high yardage, high interception season for Kolb; what will be a key factor in deciding if it is a success or failure is the number of touchdowns he throws and the timing of his picks.

Defense just hasn't been the same in Philly since they lost their defensive genius, Jim Johnson.  Though the fault doesn't always lie with his protegé, Sean McDermott, the defense has dropped off under his tenure.  Most notably, the blitz schemes are not as elaborate under McDermott, and many analysts think that much of the Eagles' success this season lies on his shoulders.  He has also lost a significant number of players recently, though, and the youth movement on defense definitely accounts for some of his growing pains.  One area of concern has been pass rush, with Trent Cole being seemingly out on an island on the defensive line.  They've made a large commitment to getting him some help at end, drafting ends in the first, third, and fifth round.  They are going to need increased production at the position, and though it isn't likely that all three ends are busts, it remains a possibility that they do not live up to expectations. 

The rest of the Eagles' defense remains solid, they ranked third in sacks, fourth in interceptions, and ninth against the run.  They seemed to have problems with consistency, though, as they ranked nineteenth in points per game.  Most Philly fans would cite the pass rush as the biggest concern on defense, but the bigger concern in my mind is scoring defense and the secondary.  Philly addressed this by drafting a safety in the second round and picking up some backup at the position off the street, but the success of this team could depend on how fast Nate Allen matures.  Other safeties are not likely to improve drastically, and the burden will be on him to patch up the biggest hole in the Eagles' D.

Rebuilding for the Eagles means something different than it does for most teams.  The Eagles still have a great defense, but to be competitive in the East it must be even better.  They still have playmakers on offense that could turn the tide on other teams, but they need more to beat their division rivals.  The biggest blow for this team is losing Donovan McNabb, who carried the team when other parts slumped.  In almost any other division this team would be looked at as a competitor, but in the East they could be looking at the first stage of a rebuilding process that could last a couple years.  Kolb will have to get much better to take this team to the top of the East, and that isn't likely to happen in one season as starter.  The defense will have to get better, and it's unreasonable to expect all of their young players will make the leap to elite NFL players immediately.  The future still looks bright for Philadelphia, but immediate success should not be expected.

NFC East Part Three: Hope

Washington Redskins

2009 Record: 4-12, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Jason Campbell, Rock Cartwright, Antwaan Randle El
Key Additions: Donovan McNabb, Jammal Brown, Trent Williams

I've said a number of times how competitive this division is, and I must say it again.  In any other division a team like the Redskins would be a first or second place team, in the NFC East they're a third or fourth place team.  They have made a lot of positive moves, ones that should bring them right into the playoff conversation.  At the same time they have made a few questionable ones as well.  They're tampering with an established defense that has been the reason for most of their success as of late, and they're relying on aging backs to rejuvenate a running game that has sputtered out in recent seasons.  That being said, the upgrades they have made have been major and all addressing positions of need.  Most of those upgrades have been on offense.

One of the biggest moves of the offseason was the acquisition of six time Pro Bowler Donovan McNabb (one of those seasons coming last year, by the way).  McNabb was the biggest reason for the Eagles success in the division, leading them to eight playoff appearances, five division championships, five conference game appearances, and one conference championship over the course of ten seasons.  I'll make a disclaimer first, Jason Campbell is a decent quarterback who can excel in an offensive system, he's not a quarterback who will lead an offense the way McNabb will, though.  One of the Skins' issues going into the season will be their running game.  Though it is a concern, the good news is that McNabb  has been very successful in the past despite not having a light-out run game.  He can carry an offense, and that's exactly what the Redskins were missing with Campbell.

The bad news is that the run game must improve.  Last season they ranked 27th in the league in rushing with 1,510 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, and under 100 yards per game.  Those numbers are dismal, and McNabb had better run support during his success with Philly.  Though he has been given help, Clinton Portis will be looked to as the man primarily responsible for improving the run game.  He only gained 494 yards last season when he started only eight games, but even extrapolated over an entire season his numbers have fallen off from the 1,200+ ones he was posting for the majority of his time in the league.  He's still at the point in his career where he shouldn't be seeing a significant drop-off, but the mindset in Washington seems to be that fewer carries will equal better production, and he certainly could improve on his 4 YPC from last season.

His help in the backfield comes from two former Pro Bowlers in Larry Johnson and Willie Parker.  Neither has made the Pro Bowl since at least 2007, though, and the feeling is they are on the down sides of their careers as well.  Larry Johnson only rushed for 581 yards and a 3.3 average last year, and after three straight 1,200 yard plus seasons Willie Parker hasn't broken 800 yards in the past two seasons.  Washington might not expect any of these backs to return to form, they may be satisfied with sub-1,000 seasons from all of them.  What they do hope to do is get far more production from the backfield as a whole. 

Also helping in this regard will be their offseason investment in offensive linemen.  The two big acquisitions, Jammal Brown and Trent Williams, are both tackles and will help more in pass protection.  It's another area they needed improvement in, as they were 29th in the league in sacks allowed last season.  They were also fairly bad in the running game, though, and not only did they not make a significant upgrade, they released one of their most experienced guards.  Randy Thomas played only two games last season due to injury, but has started every game he has played in over his ten year career.  The only move they made at guard was drafting a rookie in the seventh round.  Whether or not the guards can improve the run game is one of the bigger questions going into the season.

The other big question is how well will this team handle the switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4?  There's so much going on in D.C. this year that the hiring of Mike Shanahan almost goes under the radar.  He will most definitely get Washington's passing offense into gear, but the switch is a questionable move.  Most of their front seven players are suited to a 4-3, including holdout Albert Haynesworth, and they only drafted one linebacker and no other defensive players.  The good news is that the Redskins should be alright against the run.  They were 16th in the league and if their linemen can adapt to the new system then the linebackers should be able to hold up.  The problem is you want to be moving upwards from 16th in the league, not downwards as re-vamped defenses tend to do in their first year.  If the front seven can't adapt to the new pass rush philosophy it could also hamper the secondary, which has been very strong lately.  Washington was eight against the pass last season, and posted 40 sacks.  Again, there's a problem of scheme, who knows if Haynesworth can fit in a 3-4 if he decides to play at all, and their other defensive star, Brian Orakpo, could have issues with it as well.  If they falter the secondary suffers, which isn't good considering they should be looking to improve on their 26th-ranked 11 interceptions.  This defense could be better than it has been in the past, but it could also be much worse.  We won't know for sure until the season starts, but I expect the defense to fall off a little.  In a division like this, that is something they cannot afford to let happen.  It could be the factor that keeps them out of the playoffs.

Washington has improved vastly over this offseason, but large holes still remain.  In other divisions they might have done enough, but New York and Dallas have also made some moves that will keep them extremely competitive and Washington has only enough to keep pace.  They should probably get by an Eagles team that is going through some transitions, but they are a long shot to make a Wild Card berth.  Much of their success hinges on their defense.  They play a good deal of teams that could victimize a defense in transition, but if their defense picks up the scheme quickly they could surpass expectations.  They certainly have the offense to victimize other teams, and that will win them a few games both in and out of their division, but in the end that probably won't be enough to get them into the playoffs.

NFC East Part Two: Giant Strides

New York Giants

2009 Record: 8-8, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Antonio Pierce, Danny Clark, Fred Robbins
Key Additions: Antrel Rolle, Deon Grant, Jason Pierre-Paul

The Giants have been a very average team since winning the Superbowl three years ago.  Many of their players have lost a step, especially on the defensive line, and they haven't gotten great production out of all of their young players.  They made a number of moves in the offseason though, not the least of which was signing a new defensive coordinator, and more importantly retained a lot of key players.  They addressed areas of need, and as a result they look like a team that can compete at the top of this competitive division.  They still have questions, though, and nothing is assured in a division like the NFC East.

I'll make a departure from my usual form and start with defense, mostly because that's where a lot of the movement has occurred.  First the bad, they lost one of their best linebackers in Antonio Pierce.  They voluntarily released him, though, the logic being that he's getting older and he's going to be demanding too much money.  Pierce had an abbreviated season last year, but he put up decent numbers for the games he started and was a defensive team captain, that type of player is not immediately replaced.  The good news is they made a decent attempt by signing linebacker Keith Bullock from the Titans.  Bullock has excelled in the Titans' system and will be a boon for the New York defense, one that always plays the run well.  The rest of the linebackers are all returning, and though there is some room for improvement at 14th against the run it's still not an area of weakness.  They could have done a bit better than addressing the position in the fourth round, but they felt they had areas with more concern than linebacker.

One of those areas is the D-line.  New York's line was sensational during their Superbowl season, causing havoc in the backfield and acting as a boon to the secondary.  Coach Tom Coughlin is counting on a much improved pass rush and the return to form of some of his former elite rushers, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora.  In addition to them they drafted Jason Pierre-Paul in the first round.  The line is also anchored by Chris Canty at tackle, and they drafted a tackle in the second round.  They're obviously concerned about the position, and they hope these moves will translate to enough sacks to at least move up into the top half of the league.

One of the biggest areas they wanted to address, though, is the secondary.  They were right around the middle of the league in yards allowed, but were 30th in points allowed.  As such, they feel that their problem was at safety and not cornerback, and they spent a lot upgrading.  The likely starters will be Deon Grant, who's been reliable for the Seahawks, Jaguars, and Panthers, and the big free agent, Antrel Rolle.  They also drafted a safety in the third round, though he'll probably be expected to start down the line instead of immediately.  Rolle will be a big boon to this team, he's been one of the better safeties in the league for Arizona and will immediately upgrade this position of need.  Also a huge signing is Perry Fewell, the new defensive coordinator.  I've spent a lot of time raving about him so I'll be brief right here, I'll just say that he had Buffalo at second ion the league in pass offense with only one real big name.  He will immediately upgrade this offense and get these players giving their all on the field, and I think it will definitely show during the offseason and possibly the playoffs.  I think they have a good chance to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team, but if they do get in they could be the dark horse team to beat, a lot of that due to Perry Fewell.

Of course the difference between New York and Buffalo besides the 400 miles is that New York is a complete team.  Eli Manning may not be an elite quarterback, but he is good enough to head an offense as long as it has a good defense to rely on.  Manning will be what everyone expects, not falling off from his previous seasons but also not improving all that much.  The good news is he has a good offensive team surrounding him.  His receivers stepped up in a big way last season, and Mario Manningham, Steve Smith, and Hakeem Nicks should be just as good if not better.  The offensive line has a good upside, they were 12th in the league last yea in sacks allowed.  The bad news on offense also comes from the line, though, the Giants were 17th in the league with under 1,800 yards and a 4.1 average.  They don't have as large of a climb to improve their run game as other teams, but they must improve it if they expect to be playoff contenders.  Running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs must also improve.  This offense is not a high-octane one like San Diego or Indianapolis', they need production from their run game to support Eli Manning.

Things are looking up for New York.  They still have questions at important positions, but they made some major upgrades and the positions that still stand out don't need as drastic improvement as the ones they addressed.  They must still improve, though, as last season's numbers on both sides of the ball in the run game need to go up fro them to be a truly feared playoff team.  Regardless, the additions they made should make them at least a playoff team.  Many of the teams in their division are pass-heavy teams, as are a good majority of the teams they play save San Francisco, and if improvement in the pass D matches Fewell's success in Buffalo they should be able to victimize them, maybe enough too win the division.  Dallas is still tough, though, and I think the Giants end up coming in second.  That should still be enough to get a Wild Card, though, and the Giants could do some damage in the playoffs if all goes according to plan.

NFC East Part One: Hometown Heroes?

The NFC East has been considered one of the most competitive divisions in football for a while now.  The Eagles have been the dominant team as of late, but the Giants are always nipping at their heels and the Cowboys have made a legitimate claim to being the new top team after beating Philly three times last season.  The Redskins should never be counted out either, and top to bottom the NFC East is one of the most solid divisions in the NFL.  There can be only one champion, though, and this year the Cowboys are looking to not only repeat but make it all the way to the big game in their home stadium in Dallas.

Dallas Cowboys

2009 Record: 11-5, Division Champions
2009 Playoff Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Flozell Adams, Ken Hamlin, Bobby Carpenter
Key Additions: Alex Barron, Dez Bryant, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah

The Cowboys have some high expectations going into this season.  After years of early playoff exits and questions of whether Tony Romo and coach Wade Phillips could win in the playoffs, the Cowboys won in dominating fashion in the Wild Card round.  Immediately after they were thrashed by the Vikings and the questions returned.  As much blame as Phillips and Romo get, though, the Cowboys success lies mostly on the shoulders of others in the organization.  Let's start with Romo, he's probably the most underrated quarterback in the league.  Tony Romo owns the Cowboys' team records for most 300+ yard games in a season and career, completions in a season, passing yards in a season, passing touchdowns in a season, and is tied with Troy Aikman for most passing touchdowns in a game.  Remember, Aikman was the man who held most of these records before Romo.  Those are some lofty accomplishments for such a young quarterback, and yet he's lambasted when the Cowboys don't do well.  Tony Romo is a big reason the Cowboys are where they are at, and if they want to take the next step it's not Romo who needs improvement.
 
The Cowboys would've had a good shot to win it all, in fact, if their offensive line had held up.  The Vikings decimated the Cowboys, getting to Romo six times in the game.  Flozell Adams did what he could against Ray Allen, but after he went down Marc Colombo and Doug Free were getting hammered on both sides of the line.  After a showing that displayed, clear as day, just what value Pro-Bowler Adams has to the Cowboys you would think they would have made every effort to re-sign him, instead he was quickly dumped.  Simply put, this is a huge hole on offense.  It may not affect their chances of getting to the post-season, but without a significant upgrade they could be facing another heavy pass rush and it could cost them playoff wins again.  They made some moves to address the protection issues at tackle, signing Alex Barron from the Rams and drafting Sam Young.  Young was a sixth rounder, though, and will probably not start right away.  Barron has been dependable for the Rams and will be decent enough in one of the tackle slots, but he won't be enough to replace Adams.  Furthermore, whoever starts next to him is still a weakness against a good pass rush.  Everyone but Flozell got killed against Minnesota, there's no reason to think that facing the same quality of rushers things won't be just as bad.
 
The rest of the offense is a mixed bag.  File the rest of the line under the good news category, the Cowboys were seventh in rushing yards last season.  They need to find the right method to implement in their three back system as their backs struggled at times, but given the right situations Choice, Barber, and Jones are a fearsome trio.  Not so fearsome is the receiving corps.  Roy Williams is no longer looked at as a serious threat in the passing game, and there's talk of the Cowboys dealing him before the season is up.  Miles Austin should pick up right where he left off after making the Pro Bowl last season on the strength of a 1,300 yard, eleven touchdown, 81 reception season.  Unfortunately he's on a bit of an island out there.  Jason Witten is always solid, but the rest of the receiving corps is noticeably thin.  Dez Bryant has reportedly looked good so far, but he'll need to step up in order to make this receiving corps as good as it needs to be, especially if they're planning on dumping Roy Williams altogether.  An elite tackle would be number one on the list of Cowboys' needs, but another good receiver would be a close second.  The Cowboys should be solid during the regular season, Tony Romo is still electric and he has mostly the same weapons he did last season, but another receiver would make things much easier and might even alleviate some of the pressure caused by the loss of Adams.
 
Defense is another mixed bag for the Boys.  They ranked ninth overall last season and played the run exceptionally well, ranking fourth overall in run defense.  Against the pass, though, they ranked 20th.  They also ranked 26th in interceptions despite ranking second in scoring defense and seventh in sacks.  It was an area that cost them in the playoffs as well, despite stopping all-star back Adrian Peterson they got passed on for 234 yards and four touchdown passes.  Like most other positions of need, the secondary was largely ignored during the offseason.  They didn't draft a corner until the sixth round, and only took a safety in the fourth.  Safety is the biggest issue here, as two of their corners were Pro-Bowlers last year.  They released their best safety in Ken Hamlin, though, and the position is very thin.  Unless a young player steps up, it could be a glaring weakness.  Other than that defense is solid.  Their D-line, led by Jay Ratliff, is one of the best 3-4 lines in the league.  Their linebackers fly to the ball, and they should still be great against the run.  Like offense, defense should be good enough to get them into the post-season, but after that there are questions.  It's doubtful they've done enough to deter the elite passing offenses that are common in post-season play. 
 
Their schedule isn't easy, but they should be among the best teams their opponents will face.  They have a good chance to make teams one-dimensional by shutting down the run game in the NFC North and AFC South, but could also get pummeled by good passing attacks in those games if their secondary isn't shored up.  The Cardinals provide an easy swing game, but the Saints figure to be tough, that could be a defining game in week 12.  In the division the Eagles and Redskins are good, but Dallas should be better.  Their biggest competition could come from New York, where Perry Fewell should have a re-energized pass defense in place.  Still, the Cowboys look good enough to repeat as champs.  The questions of whether they can win in the post-season continue, though, as problem areas look to be just as problematic.  Those areas seem to be most prevalent in the playoffs, and the Cowboys will be hard pressed to make a Superbowl appearance in their hometown.  A lot can happen in seventeen weeks, though, and right now things look pretty good for the boys in blue.

AFC East Wrap-Up, REALLY Ready for some Football

Football is back, and one week of the pre-season is far from enough to satisfy me.  I cannot wait until kickoff weekend in a few weeks, but until then pre-season will do.  I can't wait to get into Bears analysis for the first time this season, but first I'll go over my thought son the AFC East.

Early Predictions:

Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills

I found this division to be one of the hardest to call.  All three of the top teams are very solid in most areas, but all three also have question marks.  In the end I had to base it on the players that have reported so far and the way they match up against each other.  I think Miami can outdo New England this year.  The Pats are solid against the pass, but porous against the run.  I think Miami can take advantage of that and use their dual threat, high-octane rushing attack to power past the Pats.  Having Brandon Marshall should help ease things up, and it will be even better for Miami if they can get consistent pressure on Brady.  I think they take the division.  Right now the Pats' defense matches up well against the Jets' offense.  The Pats can stop the pass pretty well and could force them to run it.  If the Jets' running game picks up where it left off that shouldn't be a problem, but because of uncertainty I have to favor New England here.  On the flipside, New England excels at the pass and could victimize a Revis-less Jets team.  If Revis comes back that changes, the Jets might even leapfrog both the Pats and the Dolphins, but because of the way Wes Welker is playing so far and the presence of Brandon Marshall I have to drop them down to third and a longshot to make the playoffs without their shutdown corner.  Buffalo will just be plain awful, perhaps historically so.

On to the Bears.  It's hard to make too many judgements about the team from the pre-season, but it can often be a decent barometer.  Here's what I saw from the Bears: there was some good and some bad.  First the good, the offensive line looked great in pass protection.  Sacks were a problem last year with Cutler getting sacked 35 times, and time in the pocket will be a much larger issue with Martz' new system.  The Bears will have their work cut out for them facing ends like Jared Allen and Kyle Vanden Bosch, and blitz-heavy Green Bay twice a season.  The good news is that the Chargers threw every blitz they had at the Bears and, aside from Forte getting burned on a corner blitz pickup, the first team unit picked them all up and gave Cutler time to throw. 

The bad news on the line, however, is that the running game went nowhere.  Chester Taylor and Forte couldn't get out of the backfield, and the only run production came from second year back Khalil Bell whose longest run went for a whopping seven yards.  We saw plenty of this last season, backs not getting past the line, and though Martz won't focus on the run, if he can't get production from his backs when he needs it the Bears could be in trouble.  Having no teeth in the run game allows teams to commit more defenders to coverage, and it would make it easier for teams to disrupt Martz' system.  Hopefully things will get better in that area.

Passing was a strength for the offense.  Hanie had some problems, but for a backup QB I thought he performed very well, throwing a touchdown pass to Devin Aromashodu.  Speaking of DA, he continued to impress me and I will again state that I think he deserves to be starting.  Hester is best suited for slot duty, DA is a clutch option as a starter.  Aromashodu has earned the right to start, play the man who makes the plays, Lovie.  Also impressive was Johnny Knox, who caught both of Cutler's two completions.  Not only was he able to get past Quentin Jammer, but he also looked smart running routes and steady with his hands.  He's looking like a definite starter this year, and it's well-deserved.  The same can't be said for the rest of the receivers.  Perhaps the poor play of Dan LeFevour factored into it, but the backups were dropping passes and blowing routes left and right.  This may not be a problem in the regular season, as most of these players probably won't supplant any of the Bears' current starters at the position. 

Defense was a mixed bag, but there was certainly a lot to be disappointed about.  Some of the young ends looked good, although not outstanding.  A lot of people have expressed disappointment in Pepper's performance, but I saw one play where he bumrushed the tackle that made me realize what he can do.  San Diego was executing a lot of quick passes anyways, which means the pressure won't always get there.  That's where it falls on the linebackers and secondary to make plays, and they failed miserably.  The corners continued to get beat on medium range passes and give up easy third down opportunities.  Bowman and Tillman might be solid in the regular season, but most everyone behind them can't be counted on judging from this game.  The safeties weren't great either.  Daniel Manning continues to look out of place at the position, Chris Harris made a key mistake that cost a touchdown, and Al Afalava looked dismal in all aspects, even missing a block on a punt that allowed the kick to be blocked.  The one bright spot was rookie Major Wright, who looked like he belonged as a starter.  He went down with a finger injury that will require surgery, but hopefully he makes it back for the start of the regular season, as he will definitely be an asset.

Finally run defense.  Brian Urlacher looked great in his return, but the rest was a mixed bag.  Lance Briggs whiffed on a tackle that would have gone for a loss and instead went for a first down, and Nick Roach made plenty of mistakes along with most of the other young backers.  Pisa Tinoisamoa looked good, though, and could be close to regaining his starting job from Roach.  The run defense is going to have to get better overall, though.  We cannot afford to miss tackles and blow assignments against the quality running backs we will be facing in the regular season.

Briefly touching on the Sox, I said beating Minnesota and Detroit would be key, and so far I have been right.  We lost the lead and now trail the Twins by three games, mostly because of losses to the Tigers and Twins.  We're going to have to do better if we want to make the playoffs.

Antti Niemi is looking more and more like a jerk to me.  At first I was frustrated by the Hawks letting all these big names players go, but in Niemi's situation he was demanding too much.  They signed Turco, who has virtually equal stats as Niemi and more experience, for a lot less.  On top of that, Turco owns the league record for most shutouts in a playoff series.  Keeping Niemi would have been nice, the benefit of that would be having a younger goalie and a more long-term solution, but he was simply asking for too much.

Finally, I'd like to rant a bit about switching schemes.  It's been a pretty popular trends in the NFL, this year's switches put the 3-4 as the most popular defense in the league.  I'm not criticizing the 3-4 itself, but sometimes it's better to stay with the 4-3, specifically when the personnel of the team is suited for that scheme.  Dom Capers just instituted his 3-4 defense in Green Bay last season with some success; the defense finished second in total defense, first in run defense, eleventh in sacks, and first in interceptions.  This success can be attributed in part to Dom Capers, but the players also played an integral role.  Aside from Aaron Kampman, who ended up with diminished playing time, they had a host of players, including Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk, and Johnny Jolly, who were suited to the 3-4.  They also drafted to fill positions, with the biggest pick being linebacker Clay Matthews, but also taking a 3-4 nose tackle in B.J. Raji.

The flip side to this, however, are teams who don't have the right personnel in place.  Buffalo, for instance, struggled heavily against the run last season.  New Coach Chan Gailey decided to switch to a 3-4 despite playing all the same players, who were drafted to play in a 4-3.  Their defensive lineman and linebackers were already struggling against the run, and putting them in a 3-4 scheme won't solve anything.  In fact, it will probably hamper things seeing as how there will be more demand for production.  Linemen will have to be tougher up front and linebackers will have to be faster and tackle harder.  It's ridiculous to think this will be done with the same personnel.  Also, Buffalo ran a successful scheme in the secondary, switching schemes messes with that and asks players to behave differently.  Blitzes are key in a 3-4, and defensive backs will have to be more aware in pass coverage.  Part of the Bills' success last season was the scheme of coordinator Perry Fewell, and in a new scheme it is questionable whether the Buffalo secondary can perform as well.  Sometimes these switches are a good thing, as in Green Bay, but in situations like Buffalo's they can be a costly mistake.

AFC East Part Four: Same Old, Same Old

Buffalo Bills

2009 Record: 6-10, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Richie Incognito, Terrell Owens, Aaron Schobel
Key Additions: C.J. Spiller, Alex Carrington, Marcus Easley

I've been pretty generous to most teams so far in previews. Many of them are showing signs of progress, and while they can't all win they all have potential. It's time to take the gloves off and get down and dirty, Buffalo is not showing much to make their fans hopeful this coming season. It's hard to predict that they could actually move backwards from a 6-10 season, but it is possible they not only do that but post the second ever 0-16 season in league history, an inauspicious scenario for new coach Chan Gailey. It looks to be a perfect storm in Buffalo, though, and the Bills could be looking to make league history in the worst possible way.

What's wrong with the Bills? Well, let's start with offense. Everything starts up front with the line, and not only did a line that has been a thorn in the side of this organization not get any upgrades, they actually lost their best lineman in Richie Incognito. The line was woeful last season, giving up 46 sacks and just making it out of the bottom half of the league in rushing yards. They need improvement, and they haven't made any solid moves to improve that line. They only addressed offensive line positions in the fifth and seventh rounds of a horribly crafted team draft, and haven't made any splashes at the position in free agency. Whoever the quarterback is will probably be on the ground a good deal this next season.

Speaking of the quarterback, it remains another position filled with questions. Brian Bohm, Trent Edwards, and Ryan Fitzpatrick have been battling for a starting position for years, and none has stood out as a quarterback capable of leading this team. With a number of quarterbacks available this offseason the Bills once again passed up an opportunity to at least address a position of weakness, but are again settling with what got them to this point in the first place. It's not going to get any better for the Bills at quarterback this year.

The one place it might get better on offense is running back. Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson are both still capable backs, if perhaps a bit injury prone. There's still talk of trading Lynch and that seems like a mistake, even with touted rookie back C.J. Spiller it would seem to be a better idea to go into the season with a wealth of weapons in the one position of strength on this offense. Still, the Buffalo line needs to be better at opening holes for any of the three to have success. Spiller is bringing high praise and Lynch has shown flashes, it may be only hope to count on their success but it is the one bright spot in this offense, receivers included. The Bills are basically going into the season with the same receiving corps as last season except with a fourth round rookie replacing T.O. I'll get into the T.O. hate in a later post, but suffice to say the receiving corps needs all the help it can get, and will probably be yet another weakness.

Defense is a horrible mess. One thing I'll also get into in a later post is teams switching schemes without the right personnel, and this is an example. Green Bay had some good players when they switched to Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme and they drafted linebackers to fit the scheme. Buffalo, on the other hand, had a 4-3 scheme in place with personnel built around it. Not only did they have personnel more suited to be 4-3 ends or lineman than 3-4 backers or linemen, but they spent three picks on defensive ends, one on a tackle, and no picks on backers. This is a mistake, and Buffalo is going to pay for it. They were near last in the league in run defense and they expect the exact same personnel to learn a new scheme and go from 30th in the league to a run defense that can compete in the AFC East, it's not going to happen. They simply have no playmakers on their front seven after losing their best end to retirement and not making any moves to improve. That also hurts them in the sack department, where they were 18th in the league last season. That number could very well go down.

Perhaps the biggest error, though, is in toying with a successful pass offense. The Bills were second in the league in passing yards allowed per game and in interceptions. They didn't have all that many big names in the secondary, they got there based on the coaching and successful scheme of ex-defensive coordinator Perry Fewell. When I get to the Bears I'm going to go on about how good Fewell is and what a difference he can make, and I'll probably do the same when I get to his new team, the Giants. Fewell is a standout coach, he ran a great scheme, and headed a pass defense that gets nowhere near the credit it should because of the team he was on. Congratulations Chan Gailey, way to gut that in order to get your system in place. The one bright spot should be that Jarius Byrd should have a standout year if he's healthy, but this defense should be in disarray until they get some better personnel on the field.

Gailey is making a host of blunders, including tampering with a defense and setting it back to square one instead of building on it. The personnel is wrong, the scheme is wrong, and Gailey's NFL credentials aren't all that impressive. The Bills have a tough schedule ahead of them, and they haven't done even enough to fix their mistakes from last season. It looks to be another long season in Buffalo.

AFC East Part Three: Sunny Horizons

Miami Dolphins



2009 Record: 7-9, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Joey Porter, Justin Smiley, Ted Ginn, Jr.
Key Additions: Brandon Marshall, Jared Odrick, Karlos Dansby

Three years ago the Dolphins were one of the worst teams in the NFL, posting a 1-15 record.  After a quick rebuilding by coach Tony Sparano they beat out the Patriots to make the playoffs with an 11-5 record.  Since then they've had to address problems at key positions, including a QB carousel kept going mostly by injuries.  After a pretty solid season by second year quarterback Chad Henne last year, the Dolphins have built on their solid foundation and look ready to improve on their 7-9 record.  That could be easier said than done in a tough division, and doing so will require getting past the always competitive Patriots and the breakout Jets.  They have plenty of weapons, though, and should be a force to be reckoned with.

A lot has been made of what Chad Henne is, but what should also be talked about is what he is not.  He is not an elite quarterback, maybe not even a franchise QB, but he is a reliable starter that fits the offense.  He had a nice completion percentage last season, over 60, and almost 2,900 yards, which isn't bad in a run-heavy offense.  He also started only 13 games, so he almost certainly would have been a 3,000+ yard passer.  That being said, he only had 12 touchdowns to go with his 14 interceptions.  The blame isn't all on him, though.  As stated before, Henne is a QB who excels in a system.  The tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams prevents defenses from focusing on stopping the pass, but he also needs help in other areas.  He was sacked 26 times last season, out of the 34 total sacks the Miami line gave up.  His receiving corps has also been noticeably thin. 

Thankfully for him, the team has made strides in improving those positions.  All-star receiver Brandon Marshall will certainly be a boost for Henne, and they've also made an effort to go out and reinforce their line.  They drafted a guard in the third round, and singed a couple of free agent linemen.  None of them are slam dunks, though, and losing veteran Justin Smiley won't help.  The line should be at least as good in the run game as it was last year, though, and having more reliable weapons at receiver should also help.  There might be added pressure on Henne to get the ball out quicker than he has, and it will remain an area of question going into the season.

Defense is another area that hurt the Dolphins last season.  They were 22nd in the league in yards per game, 25th in points per game, and 16th in interceptions.  The biggest are that Miami excelled in on defense was sacks, getting to the quarterback 44 times, third best in the league.  Miami's offseason moves on defense should concern fans, though.  Despite having a good pass rush, many of Miami's defensive moves were acquiring defensive linemen and linebackers.  They got rid of under-performing safety Gibril Wilson, but replaced him only with a fifth round rookie.  Their only other move in the secondary was in the fifth round taking a corner, and it remains an area of concern for them.

The pass rush should be solid as ever.  They lost Joey Porter, but gained takeaway specialist Karlos Dansby.  They drafted four linebackers and spent their first-round selection on an end, and signed six more D-linemen and linebackers in free agency.  This defense should be high-powered, and it wouldn't come as a surprise to see their average numbers against the run from last season improve.  For all of that, though, they're still vulnerable to the pass and they play some very good passing teams.  Miami's success this season very well may depend on how their pass offense plays compared to their opponents'.

Miami's season is going to rely very much on execution.  They have plenty of talent at most positions, but they will need to make the most of it.  They have plenty of games against opponents that match up well against them, with both North divisions having some potent passing attacks.  In addition their swing games against Oakland and Tennessee could be potential problems, and it will all come down to execution.  The talent they added and the presence of Coach Sparano puts them in a good position to win, but nothing is guaranteed for them yet.

AFC East Part Two: Rebuilding a Dynasty

New England Patriots



2009 Record: 10-6, Division Champions
2009 Playoff Record: 0-1
Key Losses: Jarvis Green, Adalius Thomas, Benjamin Watson
Key Additions: Alge Crumpler, Tory Holt, Devin McCourty

The Patriots have been the best team of the past decade, winning three Superbowls in four years and compiling the longest NFL win streak.  They've been hard-pressed to live up to that history in recent years, though, losing to the Giants and going a full season without Brady.  2009 was supposed to be the year they finally got back to the top, but an early playoff exit exposed the team as no longer being the dynasty they were only a few years ago.  Coach Bill Belichick is trying to get the team back to that level with a drastically changed lineup.  Most of his players from those championships have left, and he now has a team composed primarily of rookies and veterans.  If the Patriots are going to repeat as Division Champs they're going to have to get the most out of both groups.

Their defense is one area that used to be lights-out, but with marquee players either going to other teams or retiring there is a considerable pool of youth there trying to play at the Patriot level.  There aren't many major changes this season, and Belichick seems to be expecting improvement from his young players that are entering their second and third years.  That task isn't as monumental as it sounds, though.  Last season the Patriots ranked in the upper half of the league in all major categories of pass defense, their problems came against the run and in generating sacks.  Their secondary is solid, and with a first round pick at cornerback they should be a strong team against the pass.

Their front seven is another story, though.  Linebacker is an obvious area of need after losing Adalius Thomas, the latest of the New England backers to take off for another team.  It showed, as they drafted two linebackers in the second round.  These players are going to be hard-pressed to produce right away, which in itself isn't that strange in Belichick's system, but they are going to be asked to produce in an area of weakness.  The Pats can't be content with status quo, they need more pressure on the QB and better play against the run.  Further compounding this problem is the holdout of star linebacker Derrick Burgess who accounted for five sacks last season.  This means the pressure will be on Tully Banta-Cain, Jerod Mayo, and the rookies to step up play at that position and get this team back to a point of being a feared playoff contender.

The front three don't look much better.  Those positions weren't addressed until the seventh round of the draft, and the line as it is now looks to be comprised of a group of aging veterans.  Gerrard Warren was brought in to stop the run, but his sack production hasn't been very impressive ion recent seasons.  Vince Wilfork is in a similar situation, and these two veterans will be called upon to elevate the defense and be a dominating force up front.  Whether or not this combination of youth and veterans will produce better results than last year is a question, though.

Offense is still strong behind Tom Brady, but not invincible without Wes Welker for an undetermined amount of time.  New England invested Heavily in the tight end position during the offseason, bringing in Alge Crumpler and drafting Rob Gronkowski in the second round.  They should make up somewhat for he presence Welker brings in short yardage situations, but the Pats have stalled without Welker on the field despite their tight ends before.  This adds yet another question to a team that has a good deal of them already. 

Another question will be their rushing attack.  One move that would clear up some of these questions would be to get guard Logan Mankins back under contract, as guards play a big factor in rushing performance.  Otherwise, though, they ranked near the top of the league last season, but are again going with a running back by committee.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis looked good in limited play last year, but it seems more likely that they will stay with a committee with proven veterans Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, and Kevin Faulk on the roster.  They could stand to improve their per carry average, but other than that their rushing attack was solid.  If they build on what they did last year it should provide a boost to the offense. 

The rest of the offense is rock solid.  Brady is back under center, and Torry Holt will be in the lineup next to Randy Moss.  The rest of the receiving corps is suspect, but if they can play solid until Welker comes back they should have a surge late in the season.  Their line is also rock-solid in pass protection, ranking third in the league last season.  If they can repeat that success this team should have a good shot at making the playoffs.

The Pats are a better team than they seem, though they are showing some chips in the armor.  They have some areas where they could improve, but those areas won't hold them back dramatically.  They have some favorable matchups this year, but some problem ones as well such as the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, the Baltimore Ravens.  If they can't solidify their run D it could cost them a playoff berth, though that speaks to the strength of their division as well.  The Patriots have plenty of potential, they just need to translate that into post-season success.

AFC East Part One: Jetting to the Top

The AFC East has been all about the Patriots for the past decade, but that could be starting to change very soon.  The Pats dominated weak contenders like the Dolphins and Jets back then, but those teams have made some very good efforts at rebuilding and acquiring talent.  Bill Belichick isn't looking like the coaching genius he's been made out to be after a cheating controversy and some questionable play calls in recent seasons.  Rex Ryan is on the upswing, and Tony Sparano doesn't seem ready to abandon the upward momentum that carried the Phins to a division Title in 2008.  There are a lot of competitive teams being fielded this season, and the question of who will take the division will likely rest on who can get their best players all on the field for the longest amount of time.  Injuries, holdouts, and an expectation for young players to step up permeate through all of these teams, and the coach that can pull his team together will be the one who takes the division crown.  I'll start out with the team that went from finishing third in the division two years in a row to playing the Colts in the Conference Championships.

New York Jets

2009 Record: 9-7, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: 2-1
Key Losses: Leon Washington, Thomas Jones, Alan Faneca, Kerry Rhodes
Key Additions: Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes, LaDanian Tomlinson, Braylon Edwards

It's been a long road to the top for the Jets; before last season they hadn't had a playoff appearance since 2006, a playoff win since 2004, or a Conference Championship appearance since 1998.  Rex Ryan turned that around last season, playing a rookie quarterback behind a terrific run game and defense and taking the team all the way to the Conference game. 

Offense is the one area that left something to be desired last season, especially in the passing game, but it could be the strength of the team this year.  Most of the team's major losses have been in the running game, but most of its major additions have been in the passing game.  Losing Thomas Jones and Leon Washington is big.  Washington, when he was healthy, was one of the best number two backs in the league.  Jones was a perennial 1,000 yard rusher and his presence will be missed.  They were released, though, in part due to the performance of Shonn Greene at the end of last season.  Greene Gained 540 rushing yards with a 5.0 YPC average in limited play last season and Rex Ryan, who is committed to the running game, has plenty of faith in him.  Of all the backs who will be starting this season who have something to prove, Greene probably has the best chance to succeed playing behind a good line on a run-oriented team.

The bigger area of concern is the line, in fact, as the Jets lost one of their top stars in guard Alan Faneca.  Faneca was particularly instrumental in the run game, and the Jets will be hard pressed to replace him.  They don't harbor any illusions about replacing a 9-time Pro Bowler, but Rex Ryan, as with the running backs, thinks he has a suitable replacement ready.  Unlike with the guards, however, the Jets also made a huge pickup at running back signing All-Pro LaDanian Tomlinson.  Tomlinson has been falling off in recent seasons, but the Jets believe that's due in part to a line that didn't open up running lanes and that Tomlinson will be at least a productive back behind their line.  Again, the loss of Faneca becomes a question, but Faneca was not the only piece of a line that helped New York's backs to over 2,700 rushing yards last season. 

Perhaps of greater concern is the number of sacks given up.  Although they were 11th in the league, they gave up 30 sacks to their rookie QB.  Mark Sanchez threw for the second most interceptions in the league last season, and pressure is always a factor when that many picks are thrown.  They don't have a clear solution for whoever plays tackle opposite D'Brickashaw Ferguson, but they took a tackle in the second round.  It could turn out to be a problem area or a pleasant surprise.

Also a factor in those picks was an inexperienced receiving corps.  This year's corps is almost completely new with Laverneus Coles, Santonio Holmes, and Braylon Edwards leading it.  It's a corps of a lot of players with question marks, but a lot of players who have also produced in the past.  If these players play to their potential they could be extremely dangerous, but at worst they are all veterans and should be better able to assist Sanchez than they were last year.  Also of note are Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery, who should also prove reliable targets for Sanchez.  As crazy as it sounds, going into the season the Jets' passing game looks to have fewer questions than their running game.

Also a bit strange is the way the defense is shaping up.  After some early acquisitions they looked to have improved even more on a unit that ranked first in the NFL last season in total defense.  They lost Kerry Rhodes but picked up Antonio Cromartie, leaving them stacked at cornerback but a little more thin at safety.  That wouldn't be so problematic if it weren't for the holdout of the player Rex Ryan calls the best corner in the league, Darrelle Revis.  Not to get into the situation too deeply here, but Revis is simply an integral part of that defense.  They have good pressure, and starting next to Cromartie wouldn't be the worst thing for rookie Kyle Wilson, but you simply do not replace a player like Revis.  Wilson could outperform all expectations, he will not be as good as Revis.

That being said, on a defense this good losing Revis isn't an end-all.  They have Cromartie and they have a front seven that accumulated 32 sacks last season and ranked 8th in the league against the run.  Still, they got beat in the playoffs by the passing game and though it probably won't affect them getting to the post-season if Revis doesn't play, it might affect their chances of going deep again.  It could also factor into their regular season, though, as they play a good deal of pass-heavy teams.  The North divisions from both Conferences have more than a few quarterbacks who could benefit from Revis riding the bench, and the Broncos and Texans could take advantage as well.  Inside their division they have to deal with Tom Brady, although Chad Henne could be shut down if the Jets are as successful against the run with the Dolphins as they have been in the recent past.  The Jets have a very decent shot at winning the division, but a lot of things must line up right.  They need unproven players and older players to step up and play to their full potential, and they need Revis on the field.  If all that happens they are locks to win the division and get into the playoffs, if not they should at least be good enough to get back into the playoffs, though the division is less of a sure thing.