NFC West Part One: Singletary Smash

Similar to its AFC counterpart, the NFC West has been pretty unimpressive since the end of the greatest show on turf.  Save for a recent surge by the Cardinals the past couple of seasons, the division has garnered a reputation for being fairly unimpressive, and has fielded more than a few teams with low win seasons.  Unlike the AFC West, I see this division in a state of rebuilding.  Most of the teams have a lot of moving pieces at key positions, and every single one has questions at quarterback.  There's a lot of room for improvement, but not a lot of hope for it.  Let's start with the team that seems to be the best off so far, the 49ers:

San Francisco 49ers

2009 Record: 8-8, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did Not Qualify
Key Losses: Arnaz Battle, Dre' Bly, Walt Harris
Key Additions: Ted Ginn, Jr., Anthony Davis, Taylor Mays, Mike Iupati

The 49ers are so far unanimously considered to be the top team in the NFC West right now by all the experts I have been following. Indeed, their defense finished 2009 at 10th in the league in third down defense, 4th in points per game, tied for third in sacks, tied for 11th in interceptions, and tied for first in forced fumbles. In addition, their top division opponent has lost their star quarterback, whereas San Fran sent five players to the Pro Bowl last year and retained all of them. They also addressed key positions in the draft, and minimized the turnover of other standouts who helped them take five division games last season and come one miraculous throw away from taking down the playoff-bound Vikings.


This team isn't all upside, though.  Defense is their focus, so that's where we'll focus first.  They had one of the better secondaries in the league last year, but it isn't completely intact this season.  They seem ready to dump Walt Harris and Dre' Bly which could impact them negatively.  Harris was absent all last season, but posted three interceptions in 2008, Bly had three in 2009.  It seems like they're counting on William James and Karl Paymah, of the Lions and Vikings last season respectively, to fill that void.  Of the two Paymah is the bigger question mark, but playing in a system with a better pass rush should benefit James, who had a 2-pick 2009 with the Lions.  Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer figure to be among the front-runners to the starting corner jobs, though, and they could be a big boon to this secondary.  Spencer had a solid 2009, but the 49ers should be banking on Clements bouncing back from injury this season.  If he does, he would be a major anchor for the secondary which right now seems to be leaning a lot on youth.  Second round pick Taylor Mays figures to be part of the competition at safety, but he'll be pressed to unseat Dashon Goldson and Michael Lewis, who were also forces last season.  Their secondary has questions, but they are minor and it should be a strength again in 2010 under the direction of Singletary.  Their outstanding linebacking corps is untouched, though, and assuming nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin decides to play, all their starting defensive linemen will be back.

Offense is the bigger question, though.  The good news for Niners fans is that they play a smash-mouth style of football and didn't lose anyone big along the offensive line.  Instead, they made two huge acquisitions by drafting a tackle and a guard in the first round.  Their line was a weak point of a solid team last season, and those picks are going to have to produce out of the gate if they're going to take the pressure off young quarterback Alex Smith.  Smith will have to improve if he's going to lead this offense into the post-season.  Last season his completion percentage went up above 60 for the first time in his career, but he still had less than 2,500 yards and only eighteen touchdowns for his twelve interceptions.  Of course, being sacked 22 times doesn't help any, which is why the offensive line has such a burden to prevent sacks and create running room.

There's a lot of talk about this being a passing league, but there are plenty of examples of teams winning with a smash-mouth defense and running game, most notably Singletary's 85 Bears team.  More recently, though, the Steelers and Giants have won the big one with that strategy, and last season, despite the hype of passing powered offenses like the Saints, Colts, Vikings, Cardinals, Packers, and Chargers, teams with a run/defense strategy like the Ravens and Jets went very deep.  If the defense and running game play like they're expected to, which will require Pro-Bowler Frank Gore to stay healthy, Alex Smith will be in a prime position to follow in the footsteps of such Quarterbacks as Jim McMahon and Eli Manning.  He's proven he can succeed given the right situation, and the rest of the team looks primed to put him in the right situation.  There's plenty of talk about all the pressure being on him, but from my perspective the pressure lies on the line, running game, and defense.  The Niners look strong in all three areas, and if they live up to expectations this team could be poised to not only win the division, but go deep into the playoffs.