2009 Record: 7-9, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Torry Holt, John Henderson, Quentin Groves
Key Additions: Kirk Morrison, Aaron Kampman, Justin Smiley
The Jaguars get a lot of criticism from fans and journalists alike, and that's to be expected from a team that has finished in the last two places in the division three out of the last five years, has never won a Conference Championship, and has captured the Division Title only twice in their 15-year history. Despite all this and a particularly disappointing season last year, things are looking up for the Jaguars. They came within two points of beating the AFC Champion Colts in the season opener last year and within four points of beating them in their second meeting. That masks a lot of their problems during the rest of the season, though, as only three of their nine losses came by four points or less. They have a youth movement at many positions, but they also added some experienced veterans during the offseason. They were a particularly solid team despite their finish last year, but their success this year isn't guaranteed either due to a division full of tough opponents.
Offense, especially, is an area that receives a lot of undue criticism. Everyone knows Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the best backs in football, but the line also helps him in this regard, allowing for over 2,000 total rushing yards and a 4.5 average. Jones-Drew and the line should be just as effective this year, with the only change along the line being replacing veteran Tra Thomas with veteran Justin Smiley. Of greater concern, though, is the line's ability to protect the quarterback. They allowed 44 sacks last year and ranked 25th in the league. David Garrard quietly had a Pro Bowl year in 09, amassing 3,597 yards on 516 attempts and a plus 60 completion percentage, though with only 15 touchdowns to go along with his ten interceptions. Part of the issue here is sacks, quarterbacks simply need time to get the ball to receivers and they can't do that with a blitzer in their face. With no big moves at the position, this is a problem that is going to have to be coached out. If it isn't this will end up being another very long year for David Garrard and another disappointing one for Jaguars fans.
One of the Jaguars' problems is scoring defense. Despite putting up a decent total of yards, they ranked 24th in the league in total points. This simply doesn't get it done in their division, and they need improvement across the offense for that to happen. That won't be easy with the departure of Torry Holt, who provided some much-needed consistency for the receiving corps last season. This is the main area where youth will be key, as Mike Sims-Walker will have to lead this young corps in getting open and giving David Garrard a chance to shine. The status quo simply won't do in this area, and the passing game has to come in and provide a complement to MJD's running skills.
Defense is starting to look up, though. After getting through 09 without a lot of big names, the Jaguars made some big moves in free agency. Aaron Kampman will greatly upgrade their pass rush after suffering through injury and a new scheme in 09. They're going to need the upgrade, too, as they had only 14 sacks all last season. Also a big pickup on defense is linebacker Kirk Morrison, who will be integral in getting them up from being ranked 19th against the run last season. There are still weaknesses, though. They spent their early picks on grabbing a couple of defensive tackles who could be expected to start. They'll need to hit the ground running if the team is going to make a playoff run against teams like Houston and Tennessee. Also of concern is their secondary. They finished near the middle of the league in interceptions, but gave up 235 yards a game through the air and finished 24th in the league in points allowed per game. Their secondary is a major weak spot that saw very few upgrades in the offseason, and its success will probably rest on the play of star corner Rashean Mathis. Pass rush could improve the secondary's play, but like the pass protection it seems that Jack Del Rio is going to be counting on an improvement without significant personnel upgrades, we'll see how the gamble pays off.
The good news is they've got the Bills and the Browns for two games, and if they see even a minor improvement they should be able to steal a game from the Colts this season. The bad news is they play a lot of teams that figure to have good passing attacks and a balance of rushing thrown in. They were torn up last year by teams like the Cardinals, Seahawks, Titans, and Texans, and the pressure won't let up this season. They're going to have to step up and play as a complete team throughout the season to have a chance at the playoffs. A Wild Card berth isn't totally out of the question, though. They probably have about as good of a chance as Tennessee, but both teams could have a hard time supplanting the Texans, and the Colts still look like the team to beat in the South. Don't let that fool you, though, this is still a very talented team that has the potential to surprise a lot of people.
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