AFC South Part Two: Almost There

Houston Texans

2009 Record: 9-7, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Dunta Robinson, Chester Pitts, Ephraim Salaam
Key Additions: Kareem Jackson, Ben Tate, Earl Mitchell

The Texans have been chasing the Colts for a while, ever since they've been in the league really, but for the past few years they've been closer than ever.  They compiled their first winning record last season after two seasons of going 8-8, and now they look to be just on the verge of taking the next step and making the playoffs.  If they played in a division like the AFC West they'd already be there, but two games against the Colts every year and not having a true slouch elsewhere in the division until the Titans last season makes the playoffs a tougher than normal feat for a good team like the Texans.  They still have to play in a formidable division, which makes a playoff berth an uncertainty for an otherwise solid team, but they're closer than they were last year, so close they can almost taste it.

Like the Colts, there's a distinct similarity between their losses and additions players, namely that five out of all six weren't NFL starters last year.  Most of the players they lost from last year didn't start in 09, aside from Dunta Robinson who will be a big loss for them, and all three of their big additions came through the draft.  Like Indy, this gives them some pros and cons, but unlike Indy they didn't have a Superbowl winning team last year and they do have a lot more to prove this year.  It looks like they'll be counting on improved play from many of last year's players to get them to the post-season, and that could be a gamble. 

On the offensive side of the ball this team ranked first in passing offense among the entire league, but ranked 30th in rush offense.  That's a big disparity, and a big part of the reason why they came away with so many close losses last season.  They have a commendable offense run by Matt Schaub and featuring one of the best receivers in the league in Andre Johnson, but they need a balanced attack to keep the pressure off the passing attack.  If they could get even a slight boost in rush production, maybe 20 more yards to their per game average, they would have enough production to push them over the hump and give them one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league.  They seem to be relying on the backfield for increased production, though, as the line will look fairly similar to what it was last season.  Steve Slaton also returns and will be counted on to return to the form he displayed his rookie year, when he rushed for 1,282 yards and boasted a 4.8 YPC average.  Backing him up will be second round pick Ben Tate, who will be called upon to perform right out of the gate, though expectations might not be as lofty for him.  However backfield production comes, it will have to come for this team to get over the hump as the rest of their offense is solid.

Defense is another area of concern.  As mentioned, star cornerback Dunta Robinson is gone and won't be easily replaced.  That's not good news for a secondary that ranked 20th in the league in interceptions last year, especially considering they still have Peyton Manning, David Garrard, and Vince Young to deal with for six games, not to mention Jason Campbell, Phillip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez in some of their other games.  The good news is they have a few players returning from injury in the secondary, the bad news is none of them are proven.  Veteran Eugene Wilson will probably be counted on for production at free safety, but the rest of the secondary looks to be filled by first and second year players, including their first round corner, Kareem Jackson.  The pressure will be on him especially, not only as a rookie expected to perform but expected to do so against the likes of Peyton Manning.

With all the questions in the secondary, it's a good thing the Texans still have some strength at the first two levels.  Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans still lead the linebacking corps, though Cushing is slated to miss the first four games of the season on suspension.  They won't be easy either, with the Texans facing the Colts, Redskins, Cowboys, and Raiders.  On the line they still have Pro-Bowler Mario Williams, who is going to be counted on to perform at a high level and carry a large portion of the load.  He saw a slight dip in numbers last season, he'll have to keep the pressure on to keep these quarterbacks on their toes and give the secondary a chance.  Run defense is the one area where they remain solid after finishing tenth in the league last season.

This team has a lot of high expectations for next season, and with some good reason.  They had a lot of injuries last year and lost some very close games.  However, their opponents for next season are all making strides, and if they want to succeed they are going to have to step up production.  They need better run support and a much better YPC average.  They also won't survive the high-powered passing attacks without good pass rushing and solid play from their unproven secondary.  Losing a star corner doesn't help, but coach Gary Kubiak seems to have faith in this team.  He had better motivate them properly for this season, though, as word is that his job is on the line and he needs to make the playoffs, which is no guarantee at this point.