AFC South Part One: Still the One

Despite all the talk about the NFC East and AFC North being the most competitive divisions annually, the AFC South has begun to field some very commendable teams in recent years.  That is overshadowed by the fact that the Colts have won the Division Title six out of the past seven years, losing only once in 2008 to the best team in football.  Their win record, however, hides the competition in many of those games; for instance, three of their division wins last season were decided by less than a touchdown, and five were determined by 10 points or less.  The Colts are still the favorites to in the division, though.  In fact, unlike other divisions where I predict upward momentum, the teams in the South might not be able to relate that momentum into playoff success so quickly.  The Colts also still have Peyton Manning, and that always will keep them in the game.  Their armor just might be starting to crack, though, to the point where one of their rivals could be seeing some post-season success.  They might end up division champs, but another division sweep does not seem likely.  Let's start out with the reigning AFC Champions:

Indianapolis Colts




2009 Record: 14-2, Division Champions
2009 Playoff Record: 2-1, AFC Champions
Key Losses: Ryan Lilja, Matt Stover, Hank Baskett
Key Additions: Jerry Hughes, Adam Terry, Pat Angerer

The additions and losses represent the general theme of the Colts' offseason moves, that is you probably don't see too many big names in either column.  That's not really a bad thing, especially for a team that went 14-2 en route to a Superbowl berth.  This team still has a lot of playmakers, and their offseason moves have been geared more towards acquiring players that could pan out in the future then to spending big money on coveted names that come along with hefty contracts.  In fact, the majority of players the Colts have picked up in free agency have never played an NFL snap, which isn't necessarily a bad thing when you're simply looking to augment your roster and put these players in a position to learn from the best.  What the breakdown doesn't show you, however, is that the Colts have made it a point to re-sign key players at key positions, among them Antoine Bethea and Gary Brackett.  The one key player they did let go, offensive lineman Ryan Lilja, was replaced with another veteran in Adam Terry.

The bad news for the Colts is that they do have positions of need.  Yes, Peyton wows everyone.  Yes, the team was at the top of the league in scoring defense, but they were vulnerable against the run and stayed around the middle of the league in passing defense.  Also of concern are the six games won by four points or less, some of them very dramatic.  There were a lot of ifs last season; IF Belichick didn't go for a fourth down, IF the Texans' defense would have held, IF the Jags had made that field goal.  The Colts are good, but they are not invincible, and after last season teams smell blood in the water.  Without significant upgrades to the interior linemen, ends, and at corner they could be a weaker team than people think.  Don't get me wrong, they still have Bethea, they still have Dwight Freeney, they still have Robert Mathis, and they still have Bob Sanders, if they can all stay healthy and productive.  The problem is that their defense does not always play at an elite level, and with some pretty hefty offensive upgrades in their division they could be looking at a year where their supremacy is challenged.

Offense is better news, but we'll get the bad news out of the way first.  They have, at best, swapped one productive lineman for another, meaning that aspect of their running game will remain unchanged.  in the limited play I saw from them, that seemed to be the area of need in terms of rushing.  Donald Brown could run if you gave him a big enough hole, but the rushing attack was simply not effective.  They were dead last in the league in yards per game and second to last in average, it's safe to say that without some outstanding receivers and quarterback their offense would have been dead.  The same may hold true for this season, but one wonders, looking at their schedule, both if their defense will be able to keep them in some of these games and if a weak running game will open the door for defenses to focus in on and shut down the Colts' passing game.  They do have some favorable matchups, but those are also interspersed with some challenging ones as well, and the division will undoubtedly be tougher this year.  Jacksonville and Houston came very close on numerous occasions last season, they will be chomping at the bit to beat the Colts this season.

As I said, the good news is that the line is still as good in pass protection as ever, ranking first in the league last season in sacks allowed.  They still have Manning who seems to be going into his twilight years in the league in full stride and without slowing down.  They also still have Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Austin Collie, Pierre Garçon, and Dallas Clark.  All that equates to them posessing one of the most ptent passing attacks in the league, but without run support and great defense they could fall short of the lofty expectations everyone has for this team.