2009 Record: 9-7, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Marty Booker, Chris Houston, Tye Hill
Key Additions: Sean Weatherspoon, Corey Peters, Dunta Robinson
Atlanta had a breakout year in 2007, and although falling short of expectations in 2008 they remained impressive in a lot of areas. During the offseason they've retained almost all of their key players, but this is a team that had some glaring weaknesses and there's a question of if they've done enough to catch the defending champion Saints. The team is looking better each year under coach Mike Smith, with a good mix of veterans and youth behind a young QB who shows a lot of promise. Despite some positive moves, though, this team still has a lot to prove.
We'll start with their biggest problem area, defense. Their rush defense was solid last season, ranking tenth in the league. They used their first two picks to supplement the linebacking and defensive line units, but I question whether this was the right move. If your run defense is solid, why draft players to play the run? A more pressing need exists in the secondary, which ranked 28th in the league in pass defense last season. The players they drafted should be excellent contributors, but they completely bucked the notion of drafting for need. Instead they waited until the fifth round to pick up a corner and the sixth to draft a safety, and did little else to improve the positions. Many of their secondary players either have not been very effective or have barely started at all, and their attempts to improve the secondary could fall flat. One excellent move is picking up cornerback Dunta Robinson. He will definitely be an improvement in the secondary, but with so little support at the other three positions I seriously question whether the secondary can be effective against quarterbacks like Phillip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck, Aaron Rodgers, and Eli Manning.
On offense things are looking better. The offensive line was solid last season, ranking eighth in sacks allowed. They only had 1,800 rushing yards, but that could be attributed to the slump that lead rusher Michael Turner was in. Matt Ryan had a solid year, although his touchdowns and interception jumped his completion rate had a slight decline. Much of the pressure this year will be on him to take the next step from having a standout season by rookie standards to being a quarterback who can lead an offense. He's got the weapons to do it, too, with Pro Bowler Roddy White joining Micheal Jenkins and Tony Gonzalez in the receiving corps. They don't have too many weapons other than those two, but hopefully between their production, coach Smith's scheme, and some of the lesser known receivers stepping up, the unit can have a breakout year.
Of slightly more concern is the rung game. Michael Turner's average went up last season, but his carries were down and experts seem to agree he lost some of his explosiveness. Jerious Norwood didn't add a whole lot when Turner wasn't on the field, accumulating a measly 3.3 YPC average. The running game wasn't awful by any means, but it wasn't great either. I'm sure coach Smith would like to see about 200 more yards added on to last season's total and about another yard added to the YPC. He should be demanding that this offseason, if the running game is able to improve to the form they had during Ryan's rookie season Ryan himself also could surpass his 2007 performance.
This team is good, good enough to beat some of the other tough teams in the division. Are they good enough to beat the defending champions or make a Superbowl run as they've been gearing up to do in recent seasons? Probably not. They have glaring holes and some of their more reliable units in the past have been slumping. Pass defense and rush offense have to improve, and coach Smith is counting on improvement from last year's players and instant production from a youth movement to do so. Furthermore, although Matt Ryan has been solid he hasn't taken that next step to be one of the elite quarterbacks in this league. His completion percentage is going to have to go up and his interceptions are going to have to go down (or stay the same while his touchdowns go up). He's got talent, but he isn't a true franchise quarterback yet. The Falcons are close, but they have to improve, and until they show improvement they shouldn't be counted on to topple the Saints.
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