In case you haven't realized this by my coverage or talk about the Bears, I'm kind of a big football fan. Camps are starting soon, and we are less than a month away from the Bears' first pre-season game. I wish it were tomorrow, but in the meantime I'm taking in a lot of football discussion. I've got a few thoughts on the way the dialogue's been going, and I'll get to that after I finish breaking down the NFC South.
Early Predictions:
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I was actually surprised by how much my thoughts shifted on these teams as I went over them. I thought Tampa would be higher going in, then soured a bit on them. I went back and forth on Carolina as the third or fourth place team. I also thought Atlanta could take the number one spot, but between them not making enough changes in the offseason and the Saints keeping a rock-solid team mostly intact I can't rightly put them there. They'll be in a good position to challenge for a Wild Card spot near the end of the season, though. Carolina has a great running game, which is a big part of the reason I have them beating out Tampa, but their problem areas were only given patchwork solutions in the offseason. Tampa was even worse in problem areas, and though this offense will probably thrive, expect the defense to hold them back to third place.
First off for the NFL this season, a rant about player conduct rules. The current culture in the NFL, that has completely permeated not just the league but just about anyone associated with the league, is one of sanctimonious scapegoating. To be fair, this type of hypocrisy of expecting media figures to be paragons of the highest order is present in every form of media, but Rodger Goodell, being the self-righteous ass that he is, has made this culture dominant in the NFL. Now don't get me wrong, I'm all for punishing players who actually do something wrong. You shoot a gun off in the team locker room, yeah you deserve to be punished. The problem I have is with this so-called code of payer conduct. As I said, people expect too much of professional athletes. yes, they are in a national spotlight, but at the end of the day they are just everyday people. They make mistakes, and they are entitled to make their own judgements about their own lives. They are not public property, they are not there for our amusement, and their personal affairs are not there to satisfy our own voyeuristic urges. These people do the most monotonous things and are mercilessly ridiculed for it. Micheal Vick recently was celebrating his birthday at a bar when someone he didn't know started shooting, now he's on the hot seat. Ben Roethlisberger has been suspended for being accused of a crime even though his guilt hasn't been proven. The justification is that he shouldn't be trying to meet people at bars, but he's single and still in his twenties, what do they expect of him? Punish the players who are convicted of crimes, but do not punish them for what could be absolutely no wrongdoing on their part, do not hold them to unreal standards because unreasonable fans demand it. Most importantly, though, get down off the high horse, take all the sanctimonious and self-righteous speeches about higher moral standards, and shove them up your pampered white collar ass, Rodger Goodell.
On to rant number two, over and underrated players and teams. I'm going to start out specifically with quarterbacks, as they are always one or the other and never receive proper credit. Many times it's a quarterback being underrated, such as Archie Manning or Dan Marino. Quarterbacks like these have excellent careers, yet never receive proper recognition because they never won a ring playing on bad teams. Other times a quarterback puts up decent numbers, but gets lambasted because of problem areas. Take Jay Cutler last season, 3,66 yards last season, 60.5 completion percentage, 27 touchdowns, those are good numbers. The criticism is piled on, though, because of his 26 interceptions. That's certainly not a good number, and many of them coming in the red zone doesn't help, but there are other factors that go into that. The Bears had no run game, that allowed opposing defences to put more players in coverage. They had problems protecting Cutler, allowing him to get sacked 35 times. Receivers blew routes and allowed incompletions to turn into interceptions. This all piles up, and interceptions are going to happen when things go this wrong. Still, Cutler earns the ire of fans and sportswriters everywhere because he is the one behind center, he is the one who gets blamed for the team's problems.
Conversely, quarterbacks who win championships despite bad play are praised. Eli Manning is a prime example, he won a Superbowl behind an outstanding defense and running game despite putting up average numbers. His completion percentage was below 60, he had about 200 yards less than Cutler, and he only had 23 touchdowns to go with 20 interceptions, yet he is one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the league now. How about Big Ben? During the 2005 Superbowl season he had less than 2,400 yards and 17 touchdowns to go along with 9 interceptions. During the 2008 Superbowl season his completion percentage dropped below 60 and he had 15 interceptions to go along with 17 touchdowns. Quarterbacks get praised on how many Superbowls they win, even if they're not the driving force behind winning the Superbowl.
At other positions, it's not so much being underrated because of rings but being underrated because of having issues. The Bears are perhaps the most underrated team this year, and I'm not even going to say they're going to be a force, although hopefully they will be. NFL Network did a rundown of best players at different positions. I know Brina Urlacher has been hampered by injuries, the most recent one costing him a full season, and given that I wouldn't put him on a list of best linebackers. That being said, he didn't get an honorable mention as did a couple of other players in that category. Julius Peppers was singled out as NOT being an elite end because of a low production season in 09, which was still better than a normal season for most ends. I already discussed Cutler's criticism, and the receiving corps has been lambasted by many sports commentators. Hester may not be a number one, but 700-800+ yards the past two seasons is more than enough to qualify him as an elite number two. Johnny Knox showed great speed last season and proved he could operate in traffic, and Earl Bennett showed he had some great hands. Juaquin Iglesias is reportedly doing very well in workouts after not playing last season, and Devin Aromashodu showed he could be a versatile threat that could make tough catches in his outstanding performance towards the end of last season. This Bears team is UNDERRATED. Does that mean they'll be successful next season? Who knows, but one thing is for sure, this team does not receive enough credit. Lovie Smith said his teams do best when they're pegged as underdogs, I hope he's right, because if he is the Bears are going to the Superbowl this season.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
NFC South Part Four: Youth Movement
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2009 Record: 3-13, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Josh Bidwell, Aaron Sears, Antonio Bryant
Key Additions: Reggie Brown, Arrelious Benn, Gerald McCoy
Going young seems to be pretty common for many teams this season, but the Bucs are the team that are best ready to make something out of that trend. They've been up and down since winning the Superbowl in 2002, but they seem poised to make a return to contention as they were in 2008 when they barely missed out on a playoff berth. Their team looks radically different now than it did back then, but they should still be a force. Hopes for an immediate playoff berth should be tempered, though, as they play in a tough division and could be fighting an uphill battle.
They didn't do great in retaining key players, but they didn't do awful either. They lost their punter, which is never good for a team, but it probably won't make or break any games. They also have the benefit of already having played Josh Bidwell's replacement in 09 while he was injured. Their biggest losses came from their receiving corps, veterans Mark Bradley and Antonio Bryant are no longer with them. Bradley didn't play a snap for them last season, but might have made an impact in a young corps. Bryant is a bigger loss, the absence of his production will be felt. Hopefully Reggie Brown, who was productive for the Eagles from 05-07 but fell off the past two seasons, can help to fill the void left by Bryant. Also being counted on to produce will be rookie Arrelious Benn. Pressure will be immense and he might not live up to expectations, at least not immediately. This is a problem, as the team will be counting on second year QB Josh Freeman to step up in a big manner. His supporting cast has begun to dwindle and that will make it hard for him, but he does still have some support on the offense. Tight End Kellen Davis should be a reliable go-to for him, and the line should be reliable after finishing last season near the middle of the league in sacks allowed. Losing guard Aaron Sears won't help, but he was absent from the lineup last season anyways. Finally, they have a talented back in Cadillac Williams, though the line will have to get better in run support. They didn't do much to address the offensive line, and it could turn into a problem area for them this season.
Otherwise the offense is steady. Williams is an elite back when healthy, and Freeman showed many positives during the tail end of last season. The offense showed it could win games for this team, putting up 82 points in their three wins. They weren't pushover wins by any means, either, as they came against the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints. The big question will be if the defense can keep up, and that is less clear. They did very well against the pass in terms of yards and were ninth in the league in interceptions. They were 26th in sacks, however, and 27th in scoring defense. They focused heavily on this area in the offseason, drafting two defensive tackles in the first and second round. Gerald McCoy especially looks promising, but who knows if he will produce immediately. They also still don't have good production from their ends, which is key in their system. The one thing helping them greatly will be that their secondary is almost completely in tact, but the problem areas from last year could persist. Finally, they were abysmal against the run last year, dead last in the league. This is one area where the new faces at DT should be able to help from the start, but linebacker was yet another area that didn't see significant upgrades. This, like their problems pressuring the QB and along the offensive line, could be another area where problems will mimic those of last season.
They face some very good teams this year and ones that match up favorably against them. KC in particular could gouge them with the run, and the AFC North knows how to pound the run as well. Detroit and Washington could also prove problematic, and all these games could turn to disappointment for Tampa if their problem areas do not significantly improve. On the plus side, if they mimic the offensive success of last season, then they should be in position to win a good chunk of games, but they have a lot of ifs and a lot of high hurdles to clear. They will definitely be improved in the second year under head coach Raheem Morris, but in a competitive division, facing competitive teams, and with many holes to fill it is doubtful they will make a run at the playoffs. They have a good core, though, and could be in contention next year if they make the right moves.
2009 Record: 3-13, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Josh Bidwell, Aaron Sears, Antonio Bryant
Key Additions: Reggie Brown, Arrelious Benn, Gerald McCoy
Going young seems to be pretty common for many teams this season, but the Bucs are the team that are best ready to make something out of that trend. They've been up and down since winning the Superbowl in 2002, but they seem poised to make a return to contention as they were in 2008 when they barely missed out on a playoff berth. Their team looks radically different now than it did back then, but they should still be a force. Hopes for an immediate playoff berth should be tempered, though, as they play in a tough division and could be fighting an uphill battle.
They didn't do great in retaining key players, but they didn't do awful either. They lost their punter, which is never good for a team, but it probably won't make or break any games. They also have the benefit of already having played Josh Bidwell's replacement in 09 while he was injured. Their biggest losses came from their receiving corps, veterans Mark Bradley and Antonio Bryant are no longer with them. Bradley didn't play a snap for them last season, but might have made an impact in a young corps. Bryant is a bigger loss, the absence of his production will be felt. Hopefully Reggie Brown, who was productive for the Eagles from 05-07 but fell off the past two seasons, can help to fill the void left by Bryant. Also being counted on to produce will be rookie Arrelious Benn. Pressure will be immense and he might not live up to expectations, at least not immediately. This is a problem, as the team will be counting on second year QB Josh Freeman to step up in a big manner. His supporting cast has begun to dwindle and that will make it hard for him, but he does still have some support on the offense. Tight End Kellen Davis should be a reliable go-to for him, and the line should be reliable after finishing last season near the middle of the league in sacks allowed. Losing guard Aaron Sears won't help, but he was absent from the lineup last season anyways. Finally, they have a talented back in Cadillac Williams, though the line will have to get better in run support. They didn't do much to address the offensive line, and it could turn into a problem area for them this season.
Otherwise the offense is steady. Williams is an elite back when healthy, and Freeman showed many positives during the tail end of last season. The offense showed it could win games for this team, putting up 82 points in their three wins. They weren't pushover wins by any means, either, as they came against the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints. The big question will be if the defense can keep up, and that is less clear. They did very well against the pass in terms of yards and were ninth in the league in interceptions. They were 26th in sacks, however, and 27th in scoring defense. They focused heavily on this area in the offseason, drafting two defensive tackles in the first and second round. Gerald McCoy especially looks promising, but who knows if he will produce immediately. They also still don't have good production from their ends, which is key in their system. The one thing helping them greatly will be that their secondary is almost completely in tact, but the problem areas from last year could persist. Finally, they were abysmal against the run last year, dead last in the league. This is one area where the new faces at DT should be able to help from the start, but linebacker was yet another area that didn't see significant upgrades. This, like their problems pressuring the QB and along the offensive line, could be another area where problems will mimic those of last season.
They face some very good teams this year and ones that match up favorably against them. KC in particular could gouge them with the run, and the AFC North knows how to pound the run as well. Detroit and Washington could also prove problematic, and all these games could turn to disappointment for Tampa if their problem areas do not significantly improve. On the plus side, if they mimic the offensive success of last season, then they should be in position to win a good chunk of games, but they have a lot of ifs and a lot of high hurdles to clear. They will definitely be improved in the second year under head coach Raheem Morris, but in a competitive division, facing competitive teams, and with many holes to fill it is doubtful they will make a run at the playoffs. They have a good core, though, and could be in contention next year if they make the right moves.
Monday, July 19, 2010
NFC South Part Three: From the Ground Up
Carolina Panthers
2009 Record: 8-8, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Na'il Diggs, Mushin Muhammad, Julius Peppers, Jake Delhomme
Key Additions: Eric Norwood, Greg Hardy, Jimmy Clausen
The good news for Panthers fans is they were not all that bad last season. 8-8 is a decent mark, they played some good teams, and they had some very positive aspects on both sides of the ball. The bad news is might be tough for them to repeat. They lost a good chunk of their 2009 roster, they have a lot of youth that could make or break this team, and they still have to play some very tough opponents. I'm going straight for the worst news for this team, their defense got hit hard in offseason cuts. Julius Peppers, one of the league's elite pass rushers, is gone. Chris Harris, who they thought was on a downturn, is gone, though they haven't made much of an effort to significantly upgrade the position. Na'il Diggs is gone, though they made a good effort to replace him by picking up Jamar Williams, and Chris Gamble and Jon Beason are still here. The bottom line for this defense, though, is that they are going to have to improve, especially against the run. 22nd against the run simply is not good enough for them, especially not when they face teams that can pound the run, and they'll be facing plenty of those this season. Passing was better last season; they ranked fourth ion yards per game and fifth in interceptions. They also ranked 23rd in the league in sacks, though, and without Julius Peppers' ten and a half sacks they would've ranked 31st. This is a defense that lives and dies on two principles: pressure the quarterback and produce takeaways. They still have a good ability to do the latter in 2010, but between losses in the secondary that haven't been addressed and the loss of a payer the caliber of Julius Peppers they could be in for a long year.
Their draft was simply awful from a defensive standpoint, they didn't significantly address key positions in the draft or in free agency. Offense is a different story, they made one of the biggest steals landing projected first rounder Jimmy Clausen midway through the second round. There's debate as to who will start this year, Clausen or Matt Moore, but if Clausen does start he has one of the best opportunities to mimic the success of Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Mark Sanchez. The reason, DeAngelo Williams. The man is a sensational runner and almost a lock for his third 1,000 yard season. Jonathan Stewart is no slouch, either, and this is one of the most fearsome running tandems in the league. Having a rushing attack like that helps the passing game greatly, especially with rookies. Their line did allow 33 sacks last season, which is a concern for a rookie. They only picked up one offensive lineman during the offseason, though they didn't lost any names either. Their line is great allowing rushing yards, on the fringe with protecting the QB. It's the one big question in an otherwise solid offensive unit. Also of note is star receiver Steve Smith. The rest of the receiving corps is a bit thin, but should play solid enough to keep Carolina in games. I think the biggest question is can they keep the quarterback upright, and if they do will he make the tough throws, whether it be Clausen or Matt Moore.
Their schedule is definitely not favorable to them. The NFC West and AFC North both have some great rushing teams from top to bottom, and if the Panthers don't fix their run defense they could be in for a long season. Their swing games are against the Giants and Bears, both of whom could rush all over the cats if their running games are improved as everyone expects them to be. Many of these teams also have potent passing attacks, and without good run coverage the secondary could be in for more trouble than they're used to. Finally, none of their division opponents slouch at running either. Unless their offense really takes tremendous strides forward, their defense could cost them a lot of games. Under an inexperienced QB, I just don't see that. They'll put the scare into some teams, but it could be another long year for John Fox and company, and possible the last year Fox will spend in Carolina.
2009 Record: 8-8, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Na'il Diggs, Mushin Muhammad, Julius Peppers, Jake Delhomme
Key Additions: Eric Norwood, Greg Hardy, Jimmy Clausen
The good news for Panthers fans is they were not all that bad last season. 8-8 is a decent mark, they played some good teams, and they had some very positive aspects on both sides of the ball. The bad news is might be tough for them to repeat. They lost a good chunk of their 2009 roster, they have a lot of youth that could make or break this team, and they still have to play some very tough opponents. I'm going straight for the worst news for this team, their defense got hit hard in offseason cuts. Julius Peppers, one of the league's elite pass rushers, is gone. Chris Harris, who they thought was on a downturn, is gone, though they haven't made much of an effort to significantly upgrade the position. Na'il Diggs is gone, though they made a good effort to replace him by picking up Jamar Williams, and Chris Gamble and Jon Beason are still here. The bottom line for this defense, though, is that they are going to have to improve, especially against the run. 22nd against the run simply is not good enough for them, especially not when they face teams that can pound the run, and they'll be facing plenty of those this season. Passing was better last season; they ranked fourth ion yards per game and fifth in interceptions. They also ranked 23rd in the league in sacks, though, and without Julius Peppers' ten and a half sacks they would've ranked 31st. This is a defense that lives and dies on two principles: pressure the quarterback and produce takeaways. They still have a good ability to do the latter in 2010, but between losses in the secondary that haven't been addressed and the loss of a payer the caliber of Julius Peppers they could be in for a long year.
Their draft was simply awful from a defensive standpoint, they didn't significantly address key positions in the draft or in free agency. Offense is a different story, they made one of the biggest steals landing projected first rounder Jimmy Clausen midway through the second round. There's debate as to who will start this year, Clausen or Matt Moore, but if Clausen does start he has one of the best opportunities to mimic the success of Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Mark Sanchez. The reason, DeAngelo Williams. The man is a sensational runner and almost a lock for his third 1,000 yard season. Jonathan Stewart is no slouch, either, and this is one of the most fearsome running tandems in the league. Having a rushing attack like that helps the passing game greatly, especially with rookies. Their line did allow 33 sacks last season, which is a concern for a rookie. They only picked up one offensive lineman during the offseason, though they didn't lost any names either. Their line is great allowing rushing yards, on the fringe with protecting the QB. It's the one big question in an otherwise solid offensive unit. Also of note is star receiver Steve Smith. The rest of the receiving corps is a bit thin, but should play solid enough to keep Carolina in games. I think the biggest question is can they keep the quarterback upright, and if they do will he make the tough throws, whether it be Clausen or Matt Moore.
Their schedule is definitely not favorable to them. The NFC West and AFC North both have some great rushing teams from top to bottom, and if the Panthers don't fix their run defense they could be in for a long season. Their swing games are against the Giants and Bears, both of whom could rush all over the cats if their running games are improved as everyone expects them to be. Many of these teams also have potent passing attacks, and without good run coverage the secondary could be in for more trouble than they're used to. Finally, none of their division opponents slouch at running either. Unless their offense really takes tremendous strides forward, their defense could cost them a lot of games. Under an inexperienced QB, I just don't see that. They'll put the scare into some teams, but it could be another long year for John Fox and company, and possible the last year Fox will spend in Carolina.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
NFC South Part Two: Flying High
Atlanta Falcons
2009 Record: 9-7, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Marty Booker, Chris Houston, Tye Hill
Key Additions: Sean Weatherspoon, Corey Peters, Dunta Robinson
Atlanta had a breakout year in 2007, and although falling short of expectations in 2008 they remained impressive in a lot of areas. During the offseason they've retained almost all of their key players, but this is a team that had some glaring weaknesses and there's a question of if they've done enough to catch the defending champion Saints. The team is looking better each year under coach Mike Smith, with a good mix of veterans and youth behind a young QB who shows a lot of promise. Despite some positive moves, though, this team still has a lot to prove.
We'll start with their biggest problem area, defense. Their rush defense was solid last season, ranking tenth in the league. They used their first two picks to supplement the linebacking and defensive line units, but I question whether this was the right move. If your run defense is solid, why draft players to play the run? A more pressing need exists in the secondary, which ranked 28th in the league in pass defense last season. The players they drafted should be excellent contributors, but they completely bucked the notion of drafting for need. Instead they waited until the fifth round to pick up a corner and the sixth to draft a safety, and did little else to improve the positions. Many of their secondary players either have not been very effective or have barely started at all, and their attempts to improve the secondary could fall flat. One excellent move is picking up cornerback Dunta Robinson. He will definitely be an improvement in the secondary, but with so little support at the other three positions I seriously question whether the secondary can be effective against quarterbacks like Phillip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck, Aaron Rodgers, and Eli Manning.
On offense things are looking better. The offensive line was solid last season, ranking eighth in sacks allowed. They only had 1,800 rushing yards, but that could be attributed to the slump that lead rusher Michael Turner was in. Matt Ryan had a solid year, although his touchdowns and interception jumped his completion rate had a slight decline. Much of the pressure this year will be on him to take the next step from having a standout season by rookie standards to being a quarterback who can lead an offense. He's got the weapons to do it, too, with Pro Bowler Roddy White joining Micheal Jenkins and Tony Gonzalez in the receiving corps. They don't have too many weapons other than those two, but hopefully between their production, coach Smith's scheme, and some of the lesser known receivers stepping up, the unit can have a breakout year.
Of slightly more concern is the rung game. Michael Turner's average went up last season, but his carries were down and experts seem to agree he lost some of his explosiveness. Jerious Norwood didn't add a whole lot when Turner wasn't on the field, accumulating a measly 3.3 YPC average. The running game wasn't awful by any means, but it wasn't great either. I'm sure coach Smith would like to see about 200 more yards added on to last season's total and about another yard added to the YPC. He should be demanding that this offseason, if the running game is able to improve to the form they had during Ryan's rookie season Ryan himself also could surpass his 2007 performance.
This team is good, good enough to beat some of the other tough teams in the division. Are they good enough to beat the defending champions or make a Superbowl run as they've been gearing up to do in recent seasons? Probably not. They have glaring holes and some of their more reliable units in the past have been slumping. Pass defense and rush offense have to improve, and coach Smith is counting on improvement from last year's players and instant production from a youth movement to do so. Furthermore, although Matt Ryan has been solid he hasn't taken that next step to be one of the elite quarterbacks in this league. His completion percentage is going to have to go up and his interceptions are going to have to go down (or stay the same while his touchdowns go up). He's got talent, but he isn't a true franchise quarterback yet. The Falcons are close, but they have to improve, and until they show improvement they shouldn't be counted on to topple the Saints.
2009 Record: 9-7, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Marty Booker, Chris Houston, Tye Hill
Key Additions: Sean Weatherspoon, Corey Peters, Dunta Robinson
Atlanta had a breakout year in 2007, and although falling short of expectations in 2008 they remained impressive in a lot of areas. During the offseason they've retained almost all of their key players, but this is a team that had some glaring weaknesses and there's a question of if they've done enough to catch the defending champion Saints. The team is looking better each year under coach Mike Smith, with a good mix of veterans and youth behind a young QB who shows a lot of promise. Despite some positive moves, though, this team still has a lot to prove.
We'll start with their biggest problem area, defense. Their rush defense was solid last season, ranking tenth in the league. They used their first two picks to supplement the linebacking and defensive line units, but I question whether this was the right move. If your run defense is solid, why draft players to play the run? A more pressing need exists in the secondary, which ranked 28th in the league in pass defense last season. The players they drafted should be excellent contributors, but they completely bucked the notion of drafting for need. Instead they waited until the fifth round to pick up a corner and the sixth to draft a safety, and did little else to improve the positions. Many of their secondary players either have not been very effective or have barely started at all, and their attempts to improve the secondary could fall flat. One excellent move is picking up cornerback Dunta Robinson. He will definitely be an improvement in the secondary, but with so little support at the other three positions I seriously question whether the secondary can be effective against quarterbacks like Phillip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck, Aaron Rodgers, and Eli Manning.
On offense things are looking better. The offensive line was solid last season, ranking eighth in sacks allowed. They only had 1,800 rushing yards, but that could be attributed to the slump that lead rusher Michael Turner was in. Matt Ryan had a solid year, although his touchdowns and interception jumped his completion rate had a slight decline. Much of the pressure this year will be on him to take the next step from having a standout season by rookie standards to being a quarterback who can lead an offense. He's got the weapons to do it, too, with Pro Bowler Roddy White joining Micheal Jenkins and Tony Gonzalez in the receiving corps. They don't have too many weapons other than those two, but hopefully between their production, coach Smith's scheme, and some of the lesser known receivers stepping up, the unit can have a breakout year.
Of slightly more concern is the rung game. Michael Turner's average went up last season, but his carries were down and experts seem to agree he lost some of his explosiveness. Jerious Norwood didn't add a whole lot when Turner wasn't on the field, accumulating a measly 3.3 YPC average. The running game wasn't awful by any means, but it wasn't great either. I'm sure coach Smith would like to see about 200 more yards added on to last season's total and about another yard added to the YPC. He should be demanding that this offseason, if the running game is able to improve to the form they had during Ryan's rookie season Ryan himself also could surpass his 2007 performance.
This team is good, good enough to beat some of the other tough teams in the division. Are they good enough to beat the defending champions or make a Superbowl run as they've been gearing up to do in recent seasons? Probably not. They have glaring holes and some of their more reliable units in the past have been slumping. Pass defense and rush offense have to improve, and coach Smith is counting on improvement from last year's players and instant production from a youth movement to do so. Furthermore, although Matt Ryan has been solid he hasn't taken that next step to be one of the elite quarterbacks in this league. His completion percentage is going to have to go up and his interceptions are going to have to go down (or stay the same while his touchdowns go up). He's got talent, but he isn't a true franchise quarterback yet. The Falcons are close, but they have to improve, and until they show improvement they shouldn't be counted on to topple the Saints.
Saturday, July 17, 2010
NFC South Part One: Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler
The NFC South is another division that probably gets more criticism than it deserves. The Falcons and Panthers, despite having some problem areas that caused them to miss out on the playoffs last year, still posted 9-7 and 8-8 records, respectively. After making some upgrades in the offseason, both teams are poised to give the Saints a run for their money. The Saints haven't been slouching in the offseason either, though, and the Superbowl Champions are showing no signs of slowing down. Also on the upswing are the Buccaneers, who despite posting a miserable three wins last season, had two 9-7 seasons before that and have quietly been building one of the strongest youth movements in the league. The competition in the South will be strong, but the Saints look poised to take the division crown again and keep their hopes at a repeat alive.
New Orleans Saints
2009 Record: 13-3, Division Champions
2009 Playoff Record: 3-0, NFL Champions
Key Losses: Scott Fujita, Charles Grant, Jammal Brown
Key Additions: Patrick Robinson, Clint Ingram, Alex Brown
The New Orleans Saints really did put together a complete team last year. Not only did they have an offense that was not only solid but outstanding in just about every aspect, but they had a defense that was often overlooked because of certain statistics that didn't favor them. Let's take a look at those stats, in 2009 New Orleans was ranked 26th in the league in yards allowed per game through the air, something many detractors are quick to point out. Still, they ranked third in the league in interceptions and thirteenth in sacks. Their defense was solid where it needed to be and outstanding in some key areas that help win games, and most importantly it kept sixteen games within a score that their offense could manage. This defense will continue to get better after offseason additions, and could be even more formidable in 2010.
Most of the big losses come on the defensive side, but it still remains remarkably in tact. Scott Fujita is the big name that will be tossed around, but the rest of the linebacking corps is still solid being led by Jonathan Vilma. One of the bigger areas for concern, though, is run defense, and the linebackers will be key to improving it. The problem should be one of coaching and improved play, as they definitely have the talent to put up better numbers against the run. Of bigger concern than Fujita, though, might be defensive end Charles Grant. Though his production has never matched his numbers from 2003-04, he was still a solid player along the offensive line. It seems his replacement will be former Bear Alex Brown, who should have a good chance to revive his career opposite Will Smith. The two should make for a fearsome tandem, and seeing the sack numbers along the line go up would not be surprising at all.
The biggest boon for this defense will be their secondary, which has all of its Superbowl Champion starters returning. Darren Sharper is a future hall of famer at safety, and is starting alongside another standout in Roman Harper. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter supplement them at the corner position, and Gregg Williams will continue to focus on this talented unit in his scheme that is big on takeaways. If the pass rush does improve, it could push their takeaway numbers up even more, which is a scary thought. The one area where they could improve against the pass is in yards and points allowed, and it's doubtful this will be ignored in the offseason. At the very least the Saints' D will be as good as it was last year, if things go right it could be better.
On the offensive side of the ball things look as bad as ever for the Saints' opponents. Their line was one of the untold stories of their Superbowl run, rating fourth in sacks allowed and leading the running game to over 2,000 yards. They haven't lost any of their starters, and added second round pick Charles Brown in the draft. This line, again, looks to be a dominant unit in the league. Also showing some outstanding play last season was the receiving corps. Marques Colston and Robert Meachem performed exceptionally, but an added bonus was the solid play of the rest of the receivers. Adrian Arrington, Devery Henderson, and Lance Moore were solid, and the entire unit remains untouched. Combine that with the fact that Drew Brees, who has passed for over 4,000 yards in four consecutive seasons, is still going strong under center and this offense remains one of the most feared in the NFL. Some would say their run game is a weak point, but it's probably more accurate to say it takes backseat to their high-powered passing attack. They amassed over 2,000 yards on the ground last season, binging their total to more than 6,000 yards of offense, and attained a 4.5 YPC average. Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas bring their own unique brands of playmaking ability to the run game, and combined with the outstanding play of the offensive line, receivers, and quarterback make this the most complete offense in the NFL.
I almost considered putting the Falcons in first, as many people are doing, but the Saints have not lost enough to warrant a prediction of them falling off. Their defense is still an extremely solid unit, and could improve in the second year under defensive genius Gregg Williams. Their offense is completely untouched, and skill at every offensive position makes them a dangerous opponent for even the best defenses. The teams in their division have improved, and weren't exactly slouches to begin with, but New Orleans has built an outstanding team and will be tough to beat this season. Expect them to be playing come January.
New Orleans Saints
2009 Record: 13-3, Division Champions
2009 Playoff Record: 3-0, NFL Champions
Key Losses: Scott Fujita, Charles Grant, Jammal Brown
Key Additions: Patrick Robinson, Clint Ingram, Alex Brown
The New Orleans Saints really did put together a complete team last year. Not only did they have an offense that was not only solid but outstanding in just about every aspect, but they had a defense that was often overlooked because of certain statistics that didn't favor them. Let's take a look at those stats, in 2009 New Orleans was ranked 26th in the league in yards allowed per game through the air, something many detractors are quick to point out. Still, they ranked third in the league in interceptions and thirteenth in sacks. Their defense was solid where it needed to be and outstanding in some key areas that help win games, and most importantly it kept sixteen games within a score that their offense could manage. This defense will continue to get better after offseason additions, and could be even more formidable in 2010.
Most of the big losses come on the defensive side, but it still remains remarkably in tact. Scott Fujita is the big name that will be tossed around, but the rest of the linebacking corps is still solid being led by Jonathan Vilma. One of the bigger areas for concern, though, is run defense, and the linebackers will be key to improving it. The problem should be one of coaching and improved play, as they definitely have the talent to put up better numbers against the run. Of bigger concern than Fujita, though, might be defensive end Charles Grant. Though his production has never matched his numbers from 2003-04, he was still a solid player along the offensive line. It seems his replacement will be former Bear Alex Brown, who should have a good chance to revive his career opposite Will Smith. The two should make for a fearsome tandem, and seeing the sack numbers along the line go up would not be surprising at all.
The biggest boon for this defense will be their secondary, which has all of its Superbowl Champion starters returning. Darren Sharper is a future hall of famer at safety, and is starting alongside another standout in Roman Harper. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter supplement them at the corner position, and Gregg Williams will continue to focus on this talented unit in his scheme that is big on takeaways. If the pass rush does improve, it could push their takeaway numbers up even more, which is a scary thought. The one area where they could improve against the pass is in yards and points allowed, and it's doubtful this will be ignored in the offseason. At the very least the Saints' D will be as good as it was last year, if things go right it could be better.
On the offensive side of the ball things look as bad as ever for the Saints' opponents. Their line was one of the untold stories of their Superbowl run, rating fourth in sacks allowed and leading the running game to over 2,000 yards. They haven't lost any of their starters, and added second round pick Charles Brown in the draft. This line, again, looks to be a dominant unit in the league. Also showing some outstanding play last season was the receiving corps. Marques Colston and Robert Meachem performed exceptionally, but an added bonus was the solid play of the rest of the receivers. Adrian Arrington, Devery Henderson, and Lance Moore were solid, and the entire unit remains untouched. Combine that with the fact that Drew Brees, who has passed for over 4,000 yards in four consecutive seasons, is still going strong under center and this offense remains one of the most feared in the NFL. Some would say their run game is a weak point, but it's probably more accurate to say it takes backseat to their high-powered passing attack. They amassed over 2,000 yards on the ground last season, binging their total to more than 6,000 yards of offense, and attained a 4.5 YPC average. Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas bring their own unique brands of playmaking ability to the run game, and combined with the outstanding play of the offensive line, receivers, and quarterback make this the most complete offense in the NFL.
I almost considered putting the Falcons in first, as many people are doing, but the Saints have not lost enough to warrant a prediction of them falling off. Their defense is still an extremely solid unit, and could improve in the second year under defensive genius Gregg Williams. Their offense is completely untouched, and skill at every offensive position makes them a dangerous opponent for even the best defenses. The teams in their division have improved, and weren't exactly slouches to begin with, but New Orleans has built an outstanding team and will be tough to beat this season. Expect them to be playing come January.
Friday, July 16, 2010
AFC South Wrap-Up, Home Stretch
The AFC South looks like an extremely dangerous division to me this year. Every team has some big playmakers on both sides of the ball, but questions arrive via suspensions, holdouts, and other positions with more glaring holes. Still, every team looks solid as ever. Last season the last place team finished with a 7-9 record, the best among teams that finished last in their division. There's a tough road ahead for some of these teams and they're going to have to fight for the Wild Card this season, as every division in the AFC looks like they have at least one team capable of getting one. Though I wouldn't put money on it now, don't be surprised to see the South take one of the Wild Cards, and bet on the Colts making the playoffs by one method or another. This was a tough division to predict, especially for the bottom two, but here's how I think it will shape up.
Early Predictions:
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
I'm making an unpopular pick putting the Jaguars in third, but I think that they've done enough improvement to move up in their division. They acquired a couple of big defensive playmakers in Kirk Morrison and Aaron Kampman and have one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL. They still have holes, but they have played very hard against division opponents in the past and should get a couple of division wins this season. The Titans also show a lot of promise, but between losing some key players in the secondary and possibly being without their running back and quarterback early in the season I think they come up just short of the cats.
The White Sox came back from break with a win over the Twins. You never like to see your opponent score seven runs, but it's good to know the bats are still going strong. If we can keep up the solid hitting we should be in a good position to beat a lot of good teams. John Danks had a good-looking outing despite giving up six runs, though we might need some more consistency out of him down the stretch. Finally, I talked about playing well against division opponents being important, and we start out the second half by beating the Twins. We need to keep this up, and if we do we can make the playoffs.
In other baseball related news, Yankees owner George Steinbrenner died. I hate to bring an argument about his tactics up so near to his death, but it's been a hot topic. Simply put, the Yankees and other teams like it are what is wrong with the NBA and MLB. The Lakers, the Celtics, the Heat, the Yanks, these are all teams that water down the professional experience by simply buying the best players on the market. What makes the NFL and NHL so good are the salary caps and the penalties that owners actually respect. The NFL is full of teams that have big names, but even the biggest spenders can't keep every position stocked with the largest salaries. Look at the Hawks in the NFL, they have to undergo dismantling after winning the Stanley Cup, and while it's sad to see players go it also keeps the league competitive. This is what the NBA and MLB are lacking, seeing the Yankees in the Series year in and year out is boring, same with seeing the Lakers and Celts always going at it. Leagues need to strive to keep their teams competitive, and Steinbrenner's mentality was exactly the opposite of that. All sports leagues should be striving to make sure there is never another George Steinbrenner within their ranks.
The Hawks will hang onto Niklas Hjalmarsson after all, but the deal might prevent them from hanging onto other big players. I still don't understand how they could dump the players they did and still not have the cap room they needed. Now they're talking about not re-signing goalie Antti Niemi, which I think would be a big mistake. Yes, he only started a small portion of the season, but he proved himself in the playoffs. Besides, who are we going to go back to, Cristobal Huet? Niemi might not be a long-term answer, but at the very least he's proven himself in the short term and deserves a chance to do so further this season. Good goalies are hard to come by, we shouldn't let Niemi get away.
You know what grinds my gears? People who think the NFL season is a forgone conclusion before the offseason has even started. The NFL is a competitive league, there are surprises every season. Furthermore, every team takes strides during the normal season, like the Browns and Raiders winning down the stretch. People act as if a bad record is an indication of the total failure of every aspect of the team, but losing teams like Jacksonville, Detroit, Oakland, and Cleveland field some very talented players, even Pro-Bowlers. Don't start counting teams out before you see what kinds of changes they've made and don't start acting like certain games are automatic wins, because I guarantee you the players on your favorite team don't. Also, Philly fans. There's being critical, and then there's being a jerk. When you slam a quarterback who consistently makes the Pro Bowl and is the leader of a team that goes to the playoffs eight out of his ten years in the league, then you're being jerks. Philly fans spout their mouths off and bash any scapegoat they can find, which usually happens to be the least worthy of criticism. Furthermore, incidents like pelting fans of the other team with snowballs and leaving the arena during the presentation of the Stanley Cup speak to the level of respect these fans have for anyone else. Philly fans, simply, are the worst fans in pro sports.
Finally, the Bulls might have missed out on Lebron, Bosh, and Wade, but they picked up three more big free agents in Kyle Korver, Carlos Boozer, and Ronnie Brewer. In doing so, the Bulls have upped their defense and perimeter shooting, and given Derrick Rose another threat on the court to compliment him. Though they may not be the Finals lock they would have been with Lebron, they definitely are now the new favorite to win the division and hopefully can go deep into the playoffs. Can they beat teams like Orlando, LA, Boston, or Miami? Who knows, but the Bulls have at least established a winning way in this town, and it looks like it will be a long while before they revert to the mediocrity that plagued them ever since the departure of MJ.
Early Predictions:
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
I'm making an unpopular pick putting the Jaguars in third, but I think that they've done enough improvement to move up in their division. They acquired a couple of big defensive playmakers in Kirk Morrison and Aaron Kampman and have one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL. They still have holes, but they have played very hard against division opponents in the past and should get a couple of division wins this season. The Titans also show a lot of promise, but between losing some key players in the secondary and possibly being without their running back and quarterback early in the season I think they come up just short of the cats.
The White Sox came back from break with a win over the Twins. You never like to see your opponent score seven runs, but it's good to know the bats are still going strong. If we can keep up the solid hitting we should be in a good position to beat a lot of good teams. John Danks had a good-looking outing despite giving up six runs, though we might need some more consistency out of him down the stretch. Finally, I talked about playing well against division opponents being important, and we start out the second half by beating the Twins. We need to keep this up, and if we do we can make the playoffs.
In other baseball related news, Yankees owner George Steinbrenner died. I hate to bring an argument about his tactics up so near to his death, but it's been a hot topic. Simply put, the Yankees and other teams like it are what is wrong with the NBA and MLB. The Lakers, the Celtics, the Heat, the Yanks, these are all teams that water down the professional experience by simply buying the best players on the market. What makes the NFL and NHL so good are the salary caps and the penalties that owners actually respect. The NFL is full of teams that have big names, but even the biggest spenders can't keep every position stocked with the largest salaries. Look at the Hawks in the NFL, they have to undergo dismantling after winning the Stanley Cup, and while it's sad to see players go it also keeps the league competitive. This is what the NBA and MLB are lacking, seeing the Yankees in the Series year in and year out is boring, same with seeing the Lakers and Celts always going at it. Leagues need to strive to keep their teams competitive, and Steinbrenner's mentality was exactly the opposite of that. All sports leagues should be striving to make sure there is never another George Steinbrenner within their ranks.
The Hawks will hang onto Niklas Hjalmarsson after all, but the deal might prevent them from hanging onto other big players. I still don't understand how they could dump the players they did and still not have the cap room they needed. Now they're talking about not re-signing goalie Antti Niemi, which I think would be a big mistake. Yes, he only started a small portion of the season, but he proved himself in the playoffs. Besides, who are we going to go back to, Cristobal Huet? Niemi might not be a long-term answer, but at the very least he's proven himself in the short term and deserves a chance to do so further this season. Good goalies are hard to come by, we shouldn't let Niemi get away.
You know what grinds my gears? People who think the NFL season is a forgone conclusion before the offseason has even started. The NFL is a competitive league, there are surprises every season. Furthermore, every team takes strides during the normal season, like the Browns and Raiders winning down the stretch. People act as if a bad record is an indication of the total failure of every aspect of the team, but losing teams like Jacksonville, Detroit, Oakland, and Cleveland field some very talented players, even Pro-Bowlers. Don't start counting teams out before you see what kinds of changes they've made and don't start acting like certain games are automatic wins, because I guarantee you the players on your favorite team don't. Also, Philly fans. There's being critical, and then there's being a jerk. When you slam a quarterback who consistently makes the Pro Bowl and is the leader of a team that goes to the playoffs eight out of his ten years in the league, then you're being jerks. Philly fans spout their mouths off and bash any scapegoat they can find, which usually happens to be the least worthy of criticism. Furthermore, incidents like pelting fans of the other team with snowballs and leaving the arena during the presentation of the Stanley Cup speak to the level of respect these fans have for anyone else. Philly fans, simply, are the worst fans in pro sports.
Finally, the Bulls might have missed out on Lebron, Bosh, and Wade, but they picked up three more big free agents in Kyle Korver, Carlos Boozer, and Ronnie Brewer. In doing so, the Bulls have upped their defense and perimeter shooting, and given Derrick Rose another threat on the court to compliment him. Though they may not be the Finals lock they would have been with Lebron, they definitely are now the new favorite to win the division and hopefully can go deep into the playoffs. Can they beat teams like Orlando, LA, Boston, or Miami? Who knows, but the Bulls have at least established a winning way in this town, and it looks like it will be a long while before they revert to the mediocrity that plagued them ever since the departure of MJ.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
AFC South Part Four: Fast Cats are Dark Horse
Jacksonville Jaguars
2009 Record: 7-9, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Torry Holt, John Henderson, Quentin Groves
Key Additions: Kirk Morrison, Aaron Kampman, Justin Smiley
The Jaguars get a lot of criticism from fans and journalists alike, and that's to be expected from a team that has finished in the last two places in the division three out of the last five years, has never won a Conference Championship, and has captured the Division Title only twice in their 15-year history. Despite all this and a particularly disappointing season last year, things are looking up for the Jaguars. They came within two points of beating the AFC Champion Colts in the season opener last year and within four points of beating them in their second meeting. That masks a lot of their problems during the rest of the season, though, as only three of their nine losses came by four points or less. They have a youth movement at many positions, but they also added some experienced veterans during the offseason. They were a particularly solid team despite their finish last year, but their success this year isn't guaranteed either due to a division full of tough opponents.
Offense, especially, is an area that receives a lot of undue criticism. Everyone knows Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the best backs in football, but the line also helps him in this regard, allowing for over 2,000 total rushing yards and a 4.5 average. Jones-Drew and the line should be just as effective this year, with the only change along the line being replacing veteran Tra Thomas with veteran Justin Smiley. Of greater concern, though, is the line's ability to protect the quarterback. They allowed 44 sacks last year and ranked 25th in the league. David Garrard quietly had a Pro Bowl year in 09, amassing 3,597 yards on 516 attempts and a plus 60 completion percentage, though with only 15 touchdowns to go along with his ten interceptions. Part of the issue here is sacks, quarterbacks simply need time to get the ball to receivers and they can't do that with a blitzer in their face. With no big moves at the position, this is a problem that is going to have to be coached out. If it isn't this will end up being another very long year for David Garrard and another disappointing one for Jaguars fans.
One of the Jaguars' problems is scoring defense. Despite putting up a decent total of yards, they ranked 24th in the league in total points. This simply doesn't get it done in their division, and they need improvement across the offense for that to happen. That won't be easy with the departure of Torry Holt, who provided some much-needed consistency for the receiving corps last season. This is the main area where youth will be key, as Mike Sims-Walker will have to lead this young corps in getting open and giving David Garrard a chance to shine. The status quo simply won't do in this area, and the passing game has to come in and provide a complement to MJD's running skills.
Defense is starting to look up, though. After getting through 09 without a lot of big names, the Jaguars made some big moves in free agency. Aaron Kampman will greatly upgrade their pass rush after suffering through injury and a new scheme in 09. They're going to need the upgrade, too, as they had only 14 sacks all last season. Also a big pickup on defense is linebacker Kirk Morrison, who will be integral in getting them up from being ranked 19th against the run last season. There are still weaknesses, though. They spent their early picks on grabbing a couple of defensive tackles who could be expected to start. They'll need to hit the ground running if the team is going to make a playoff run against teams like Houston and Tennessee. Also of concern is their secondary. They finished near the middle of the league in interceptions, but gave up 235 yards a game through the air and finished 24th in the league in points allowed per game. Their secondary is a major weak spot that saw very few upgrades in the offseason, and its success will probably rest on the play of star corner Rashean Mathis. Pass rush could improve the secondary's play, but like the pass protection it seems that Jack Del Rio is going to be counting on an improvement without significant personnel upgrades, we'll see how the gamble pays off.
The good news is they've got the Bills and the Browns for two games, and if they see even a minor improvement they should be able to steal a game from the Colts this season. The bad news is they play a lot of teams that figure to have good passing attacks and a balance of rushing thrown in. They were torn up last year by teams like the Cardinals, Seahawks, Titans, and Texans, and the pressure won't let up this season. They're going to have to step up and play as a complete team throughout the season to have a chance at the playoffs. A Wild Card berth isn't totally out of the question, though. They probably have about as good of a chance as Tennessee, but both teams could have a hard time supplanting the Texans, and the Colts still look like the team to beat in the South. Don't let that fool you, though, this is still a very talented team that has the potential to surprise a lot of people.
2009 Record: 7-9, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Torry Holt, John Henderson, Quentin Groves
Key Additions: Kirk Morrison, Aaron Kampman, Justin Smiley
The Jaguars get a lot of criticism from fans and journalists alike, and that's to be expected from a team that has finished in the last two places in the division three out of the last five years, has never won a Conference Championship, and has captured the Division Title only twice in their 15-year history. Despite all this and a particularly disappointing season last year, things are looking up for the Jaguars. They came within two points of beating the AFC Champion Colts in the season opener last year and within four points of beating them in their second meeting. That masks a lot of their problems during the rest of the season, though, as only three of their nine losses came by four points or less. They have a youth movement at many positions, but they also added some experienced veterans during the offseason. They were a particularly solid team despite their finish last year, but their success this year isn't guaranteed either due to a division full of tough opponents.
Offense, especially, is an area that receives a lot of undue criticism. Everyone knows Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the best backs in football, but the line also helps him in this regard, allowing for over 2,000 total rushing yards and a 4.5 average. Jones-Drew and the line should be just as effective this year, with the only change along the line being replacing veteran Tra Thomas with veteran Justin Smiley. Of greater concern, though, is the line's ability to protect the quarterback. They allowed 44 sacks last year and ranked 25th in the league. David Garrard quietly had a Pro Bowl year in 09, amassing 3,597 yards on 516 attempts and a plus 60 completion percentage, though with only 15 touchdowns to go along with his ten interceptions. Part of the issue here is sacks, quarterbacks simply need time to get the ball to receivers and they can't do that with a blitzer in their face. With no big moves at the position, this is a problem that is going to have to be coached out. If it isn't this will end up being another very long year for David Garrard and another disappointing one for Jaguars fans.
One of the Jaguars' problems is scoring defense. Despite putting up a decent total of yards, they ranked 24th in the league in total points. This simply doesn't get it done in their division, and they need improvement across the offense for that to happen. That won't be easy with the departure of Torry Holt, who provided some much-needed consistency for the receiving corps last season. This is the main area where youth will be key, as Mike Sims-Walker will have to lead this young corps in getting open and giving David Garrard a chance to shine. The status quo simply won't do in this area, and the passing game has to come in and provide a complement to MJD's running skills.
Defense is starting to look up, though. After getting through 09 without a lot of big names, the Jaguars made some big moves in free agency. Aaron Kampman will greatly upgrade their pass rush after suffering through injury and a new scheme in 09. They're going to need the upgrade, too, as they had only 14 sacks all last season. Also a big pickup on defense is linebacker Kirk Morrison, who will be integral in getting them up from being ranked 19th against the run last season. There are still weaknesses, though. They spent their early picks on grabbing a couple of defensive tackles who could be expected to start. They'll need to hit the ground running if the team is going to make a playoff run against teams like Houston and Tennessee. Also of concern is their secondary. They finished near the middle of the league in interceptions, but gave up 235 yards a game through the air and finished 24th in the league in points allowed per game. Their secondary is a major weak spot that saw very few upgrades in the offseason, and its success will probably rest on the play of star corner Rashean Mathis. Pass rush could improve the secondary's play, but like the pass protection it seems that Jack Del Rio is going to be counting on an improvement without significant personnel upgrades, we'll see how the gamble pays off.
The good news is they've got the Bills and the Browns for two games, and if they see even a minor improvement they should be able to steal a game from the Colts this season. The bad news is they play a lot of teams that figure to have good passing attacks and a balance of rushing thrown in. They were torn up last year by teams like the Cardinals, Seahawks, Titans, and Texans, and the pressure won't let up this season. They're going to have to step up and play as a complete team throughout the season to have a chance at the playoffs. A Wild Card berth isn't totally out of the question, though. They probably have about as good of a chance as Tennessee, but both teams could have a hard time supplanting the Texans, and the Colts still look like the team to beat in the South. Don't let that fool you, though, this is still a very talented team that has the potential to surprise a lot of people.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
AFC South Part Three: Picking Up
Tennessee Titans
2009 Record: 8-8, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Kyle Vanden Bosch, Kevin Mawae, Jevon Kearse, Rod Hood
Key Additions: Derrick Morgan, Damian Williams, LeGarrette Blount
In case you haven't noticed, I've been going with a general theme for the order of these picks based on where I think the teams might finish in the division. Who to preview after the Texans was a tough decision for me, both Jacksonville and Tennessee have shown some areas of promise. I went with the Titans, though, primarily because of 2,000 yard rusher Chris Johnson, although there is much more to this team's success than that. Just a year ago this team was set to go deep into the playoffs after finishing as the best team in football in 08 and suffering an unexpected early round loss. After an injury-plagued season that saw them finish at .500 'they're looking to return to their 2008 form and pick up where they left off as a Superbowl contender, but that may be easier said than done. They've lost a good portion of that 13-3 team, and some key elements from last season that left for other teams may hamper their chances of unseating the Colts. In addition, off-field issues for key players like Chris Johnson and Vince Young could have a negative impact, especially early in the season. The Titans will have to be firing on all cylinders to keep their playoff hopes alive, but a post-season berth isn't completely out of the question.
Defense has been the focal point of this team and the driving force behind their success, but their offense hasn't slouched much either. In 2008, quarterback Kerry Collins and halfback Chris Johnson led the team into the playoffs with a potent offensive attack to complement a dominant defense. Last season that offense slumped early, averaging less than 17 points in their first five games and 13 if you discount the 31 points they put up in a loss to Houston. Vince Young came in after their bye week and led the team to win seven of their last ten games, scoring more than 30 points in four of those contests. Young and Johnson will be counted on to get this offense back on track, but a holdout in the latter's case and a possible suspension in the former's might complicate things. Vince Young may still have some doubters, but starting the season off with uncertainty for the second straight year is not a good way to hit the ground running. Speaking of which, although the offensive line is good, the running attack squarely rests on Johnson's shoulders, for better or for worse. LenDale White is gone, and without the 2,000 yard rusher in the backfield, this offense is going to suffer no matter who is taking the snaps.
Another group that is constantly getting called out as a weak point for this team is the receiving corps, but Kenny Britt, Justin Gage, and Nate Washington have made a habit out of picking up solid production as a unit. They join up with third round pick Damian Williams this year, and if the running game remains solid and whoever is behind center retains his composure they should again lead a productive offense despite the criticism. Tight End Bo Scaife hasn't picked up a lot of yards, but his average yards per reception have been over nine for the past three years, and like the rest of the receivers on this team he should be a workhouse for this offense. Also good news for the offense, the same offensive line that netted them over 2,000 yards last season and gave up the second-fewest sacks behind the division rival Colts is largely in tact. The only piece of bad news on offense, aside from the issues, is the absence of star center Kevin Mawae. As I've said before, centers are the key component to a good offensive line, and the loss of Mawae could put a dent in the predicted second 2,000 yard season for Chris Johnson. Aside from that, the rest of this offensive unit is as solid as ever.
Defense is more of a question. The Titans lost Pro-Bowl rusher Albert Haynesworth to the Redskins after the 2008 season (though they could have a chance at getting him back, maybe?), and this season they lost his partner in crime from that year, Kyle Vanden Bosch. Jevon Kearse is also an unrestricted free agent, and if their roster on opening day is as it is now they'll be looking at a rookie starting at end opposite whichever other unproven commodity they choose to start. They did good grabbing an end in the first round, it's an important position for this defense, but without a disruptive force at the other end like this team is used to it's no guarantee that Morgan will live up to expectations out of the box. That's the problem with this position, is even if their ends have a decent year it will still be less than the production that Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch have been bringing to the position in recent years.
That would be a problem for most teams, but the Titans play with two of the best offensive lines in football in the Texans and Colts, and those lines protect some very dangerous quarterbacks. Even with all-stars in the secondary, Peyton and Schaub could pick apart a defense given enough time in the pocket. Compounding this problem is the fact that the Titans don't have all-stars in the secondary. Rod Hood and Nick Harper are both unrestricted free agents, leaving Cortland Finnegan as the sole leader of a secondary that is suddenly looking very young after the Titans spent three late round picks on defensive backs. They cannot afford to regress in this area. Last season, although ranking eighth in the league in interceptions, they allowed over 4,000 yards passing and were in the bottom five in the league in scoring defense. This simply has to change, otherwise they could be looking at another long and disappointing season. Linebacker seems to be set to mimic its production from last year. They managed to keep their corps pretty much in tact, but Keith Bullock looks to be another potential loss, the rest of the backers are going to have to make up for his production and leadership.
This team has potential, but playing in a strong division with excellent quarterbacks and some imposing defenses won't make things easy for them. Although some amazing performances last season and largely untouched units give this team hope, the loss of key players does not make things any easier and will have to be overcome if they want to make it back to the playoffs. The young players will have to step up and Coach Fisher can simply not afford mistakes. They will be facing some very potent teams, including the Steelers and Dolphins, and will have to play to their maximum potential to compete in this very tough division.
2009 Record: 8-8, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Kyle Vanden Bosch, Kevin Mawae, Jevon Kearse, Rod Hood
Key Additions: Derrick Morgan, Damian Williams, LeGarrette Blount
In case you haven't noticed, I've been going with a general theme for the order of these picks based on where I think the teams might finish in the division. Who to preview after the Texans was a tough decision for me, both Jacksonville and Tennessee have shown some areas of promise. I went with the Titans, though, primarily because of 2,000 yard rusher Chris Johnson, although there is much more to this team's success than that. Just a year ago this team was set to go deep into the playoffs after finishing as the best team in football in 08 and suffering an unexpected early round loss. After an injury-plagued season that saw them finish at .500 'they're looking to return to their 2008 form and pick up where they left off as a Superbowl contender, but that may be easier said than done. They've lost a good portion of that 13-3 team, and some key elements from last season that left for other teams may hamper their chances of unseating the Colts. In addition, off-field issues for key players like Chris Johnson and Vince Young could have a negative impact, especially early in the season. The Titans will have to be firing on all cylinders to keep their playoff hopes alive, but a post-season berth isn't completely out of the question.
Defense has been the focal point of this team and the driving force behind their success, but their offense hasn't slouched much either. In 2008, quarterback Kerry Collins and halfback Chris Johnson led the team into the playoffs with a potent offensive attack to complement a dominant defense. Last season that offense slumped early, averaging less than 17 points in their first five games and 13 if you discount the 31 points they put up in a loss to Houston. Vince Young came in after their bye week and led the team to win seven of their last ten games, scoring more than 30 points in four of those contests. Young and Johnson will be counted on to get this offense back on track, but a holdout in the latter's case and a possible suspension in the former's might complicate things. Vince Young may still have some doubters, but starting the season off with uncertainty for the second straight year is not a good way to hit the ground running. Speaking of which, although the offensive line is good, the running attack squarely rests on Johnson's shoulders, for better or for worse. LenDale White is gone, and without the 2,000 yard rusher in the backfield, this offense is going to suffer no matter who is taking the snaps.
Another group that is constantly getting called out as a weak point for this team is the receiving corps, but Kenny Britt, Justin Gage, and Nate Washington have made a habit out of picking up solid production as a unit. They join up with third round pick Damian Williams this year, and if the running game remains solid and whoever is behind center retains his composure they should again lead a productive offense despite the criticism. Tight End Bo Scaife hasn't picked up a lot of yards, but his average yards per reception have been over nine for the past three years, and like the rest of the receivers on this team he should be a workhouse for this offense. Also good news for the offense, the same offensive line that netted them over 2,000 yards last season and gave up the second-fewest sacks behind the division rival Colts is largely in tact. The only piece of bad news on offense, aside from the issues, is the absence of star center Kevin Mawae. As I've said before, centers are the key component to a good offensive line, and the loss of Mawae could put a dent in the predicted second 2,000 yard season for Chris Johnson. Aside from that, the rest of this offensive unit is as solid as ever.
Defense is more of a question. The Titans lost Pro-Bowl rusher Albert Haynesworth to the Redskins after the 2008 season (though they could have a chance at getting him back, maybe?), and this season they lost his partner in crime from that year, Kyle Vanden Bosch. Jevon Kearse is also an unrestricted free agent, and if their roster on opening day is as it is now they'll be looking at a rookie starting at end opposite whichever other unproven commodity they choose to start. They did good grabbing an end in the first round, it's an important position for this defense, but without a disruptive force at the other end like this team is used to it's no guarantee that Morgan will live up to expectations out of the box. That's the problem with this position, is even if their ends have a decent year it will still be less than the production that Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch have been bringing to the position in recent years.
That would be a problem for most teams, but the Titans play with two of the best offensive lines in football in the Texans and Colts, and those lines protect some very dangerous quarterbacks. Even with all-stars in the secondary, Peyton and Schaub could pick apart a defense given enough time in the pocket. Compounding this problem is the fact that the Titans don't have all-stars in the secondary. Rod Hood and Nick Harper are both unrestricted free agents, leaving Cortland Finnegan as the sole leader of a secondary that is suddenly looking very young after the Titans spent three late round picks on defensive backs. They cannot afford to regress in this area. Last season, although ranking eighth in the league in interceptions, they allowed over 4,000 yards passing and were in the bottom five in the league in scoring defense. This simply has to change, otherwise they could be looking at another long and disappointing season. Linebacker seems to be set to mimic its production from last year. They managed to keep their corps pretty much in tact, but Keith Bullock looks to be another potential loss, the rest of the backers are going to have to make up for his production and leadership.
This team has potential, but playing in a strong division with excellent quarterbacks and some imposing defenses won't make things easy for them. Although some amazing performances last season and largely untouched units give this team hope, the loss of key players does not make things any easier and will have to be overcome if they want to make it back to the playoffs. The young players will have to step up and Coach Fisher can simply not afford mistakes. They will be facing some very potent teams, including the Steelers and Dolphins, and will have to play to their maximum potential to compete in this very tough division.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
AFC South Part Two: Almost There
Houston Texans
2009 Record: 9-7, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Dunta Robinson, Chester Pitts, Ephraim Salaam
Key Additions: Kareem Jackson, Ben Tate, Earl Mitchell
The Texans have been chasing the Colts for a while, ever since they've been in the league really, but for the past few years they've been closer than ever. They compiled their first winning record last season after two seasons of going 8-8, and now they look to be just on the verge of taking the next step and making the playoffs. If they played in a division like the AFC West they'd already be there, but two games against the Colts every year and not having a true slouch elsewhere in the division until the Titans last season makes the playoffs a tougher than normal feat for a good team like the Texans. They still have to play in a formidable division, which makes a playoff berth an uncertainty for an otherwise solid team, but they're closer than they were last year, so close they can almost taste it.
Like the Colts, there's a distinct similarity between their losses and additions players, namely that five out of all six weren't NFL starters last year. Most of the players they lost from last year didn't start in 09, aside from Dunta Robinson who will be a big loss for them, and all three of their big additions came through the draft. Like Indy, this gives them some pros and cons, but unlike Indy they didn't have a Superbowl winning team last year and they do have a lot more to prove this year. It looks like they'll be counting on improved play from many of last year's players to get them to the post-season, and that could be a gamble.
On the offensive side of the ball this team ranked first in passing offense among the entire league, but ranked 30th in rush offense. That's a big disparity, and a big part of the reason why they came away with so many close losses last season. They have a commendable offense run by Matt Schaub and featuring one of the best receivers in the league in Andre Johnson, but they need a balanced attack to keep the pressure off the passing attack. If they could get even a slight boost in rush production, maybe 20 more yards to their per game average, they would have enough production to push them over the hump and give them one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league. They seem to be relying on the backfield for increased production, though, as the line will look fairly similar to what it was last season. Steve Slaton also returns and will be counted on to return to the form he displayed his rookie year, when he rushed for 1,282 yards and boasted a 4.8 YPC average. Backing him up will be second round pick Ben Tate, who will be called upon to perform right out of the gate, though expectations might not be as lofty for him. However backfield production comes, it will have to come for this team to get over the hump as the rest of their offense is solid.
Defense is another area of concern. As mentioned, star cornerback Dunta Robinson is gone and won't be easily replaced. That's not good news for a secondary that ranked 20th in the league in interceptions last year, especially considering they still have Peyton Manning, David Garrard, and Vince Young to deal with for six games, not to mention Jason Campbell, Phillip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez in some of their other games. The good news is they have a few players returning from injury in the secondary, the bad news is none of them are proven. Veteran Eugene Wilson will probably be counted on for production at free safety, but the rest of the secondary looks to be filled by first and second year players, including their first round corner, Kareem Jackson. The pressure will be on him especially, not only as a rookie expected to perform but expected to do so against the likes of Peyton Manning.
With all the questions in the secondary, it's a good thing the Texans still have some strength at the first two levels. Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans still lead the linebacking corps, though Cushing is slated to miss the first four games of the season on suspension. They won't be easy either, with the Texans facing the Colts, Redskins, Cowboys, and Raiders. On the line they still have Pro-Bowler Mario Williams, who is going to be counted on to perform at a high level and carry a large portion of the load. He saw a slight dip in numbers last season, he'll have to keep the pressure on to keep these quarterbacks on their toes and give the secondary a chance. Run defense is the one area where they remain solid after finishing tenth in the league last season.
This team has a lot of high expectations for next season, and with some good reason. They had a lot of injuries last year and lost some very close games. However, their opponents for next season are all making strides, and if they want to succeed they are going to have to step up production. They need better run support and a much better YPC average. They also won't survive the high-powered passing attacks without good pass rushing and solid play from their unproven secondary. Losing a star corner doesn't help, but coach Gary Kubiak seems to have faith in this team. He had better motivate them properly for this season, though, as word is that his job is on the line and he needs to make the playoffs, which is no guarantee at this point.
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2009 Record: 9-7, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Dunta Robinson, Chester Pitts, Ephraim Salaam
Key Additions: Kareem Jackson, Ben Tate, Earl Mitchell
The Texans have been chasing the Colts for a while, ever since they've been in the league really, but for the past few years they've been closer than ever. They compiled their first winning record last season after two seasons of going 8-8, and now they look to be just on the verge of taking the next step and making the playoffs. If they played in a division like the AFC West they'd already be there, but two games against the Colts every year and not having a true slouch elsewhere in the division until the Titans last season makes the playoffs a tougher than normal feat for a good team like the Texans. They still have to play in a formidable division, which makes a playoff berth an uncertainty for an otherwise solid team, but they're closer than they were last year, so close they can almost taste it.
Like the Colts, there's a distinct similarity between their losses and additions players, namely that five out of all six weren't NFL starters last year. Most of the players they lost from last year didn't start in 09, aside from Dunta Robinson who will be a big loss for them, and all three of their big additions came through the draft. Like Indy, this gives them some pros and cons, but unlike Indy they didn't have a Superbowl winning team last year and they do have a lot more to prove this year. It looks like they'll be counting on improved play from many of last year's players to get them to the post-season, and that could be a gamble.
On the offensive side of the ball this team ranked first in passing offense among the entire league, but ranked 30th in rush offense. That's a big disparity, and a big part of the reason why they came away with so many close losses last season. They have a commendable offense run by Matt Schaub and featuring one of the best receivers in the league in Andre Johnson, but they need a balanced attack to keep the pressure off the passing attack. If they could get even a slight boost in rush production, maybe 20 more yards to their per game average, they would have enough production to push them over the hump and give them one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league. They seem to be relying on the backfield for increased production, though, as the line will look fairly similar to what it was last season. Steve Slaton also returns and will be counted on to return to the form he displayed his rookie year, when he rushed for 1,282 yards and boasted a 4.8 YPC average. Backing him up will be second round pick Ben Tate, who will be called upon to perform right out of the gate, though expectations might not be as lofty for him. However backfield production comes, it will have to come for this team to get over the hump as the rest of their offense is solid.
Defense is another area of concern. As mentioned, star cornerback Dunta Robinson is gone and won't be easily replaced. That's not good news for a secondary that ranked 20th in the league in interceptions last year, especially considering they still have Peyton Manning, David Garrard, and Vince Young to deal with for six games, not to mention Jason Campbell, Phillip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez in some of their other games. The good news is they have a few players returning from injury in the secondary, the bad news is none of them are proven. Veteran Eugene Wilson will probably be counted on for production at free safety, but the rest of the secondary looks to be filled by first and second year players, including their first round corner, Kareem Jackson. The pressure will be on him especially, not only as a rookie expected to perform but expected to do so against the likes of Peyton Manning.
With all the questions in the secondary, it's a good thing the Texans still have some strength at the first two levels. Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans still lead the linebacking corps, though Cushing is slated to miss the first four games of the season on suspension. They won't be easy either, with the Texans facing the Colts, Redskins, Cowboys, and Raiders. On the line they still have Pro-Bowler Mario Williams, who is going to be counted on to perform at a high level and carry a large portion of the load. He saw a slight dip in numbers last season, he'll have to keep the pressure on to keep these quarterbacks on their toes and give the secondary a chance. Run defense is the one area where they remain solid after finishing tenth in the league last season.
This team has a lot of high expectations for next season, and with some good reason. They had a lot of injuries last year and lost some very close games. However, their opponents for next season are all making strides, and if they want to succeed they are going to have to step up production. They need better run support and a much better YPC average. They also won't survive the high-powered passing attacks without good pass rushing and solid play from their unproven secondary. Losing a star corner doesn't help, but coach Gary Kubiak seems to have faith in this team. He had better motivate them properly for this season, though, as word is that his job is on the line and he needs to make the playoffs, which is no guarantee at this point.
Monday, July 12, 2010
AFC South Part One: Still the One
Despite all the talk about the NFC East and AFC North being the most competitive divisions annually, the AFC South has begun to field some very commendable teams in recent years. That is overshadowed by the fact that the Colts have won the Division Title six out of the past seven years, losing only once in 2008 to the best team in football. Their win record, however, hides the competition in many of those games; for instance, three of their division wins last season were decided by less than a touchdown, and five were determined by 10 points or less. The Colts are still the favorites to in the division, though. In fact, unlike other divisions where I predict upward momentum, the teams in the South might not be able to relate that momentum into playoff success so quickly. The Colts also still have Peyton Manning, and that always will keep them in the game. Their armor just might be starting to crack, though, to the point where one of their rivals could be seeing some post-season success. They might end up division champs, but another division sweep does not seem likely. Let's start out with the reigning AFC Champions:
Indianapolis Colts
2009 Record: 14-2, Division Champions
2009 Playoff Record: 2-1, AFC Champions
Key Losses: Ryan Lilja, Matt Stover, Hank Baskett
Key Additions: Jerry Hughes, Adam Terry, Pat Angerer
The additions and losses represent the general theme of the Colts' offseason moves, that is you probably don't see too many big names in either column. That's not really a bad thing, especially for a team that went 14-2 en route to a Superbowl berth. This team still has a lot of playmakers, and their offseason moves have been geared more towards acquiring players that could pan out in the future then to spending big money on coveted names that come along with hefty contracts. In fact, the majority of players the Colts have picked up in free agency have never played an NFL snap, which isn't necessarily a bad thing when you're simply looking to augment your roster and put these players in a position to learn from the best. What the breakdown doesn't show you, however, is that the Colts have made it a point to re-sign key players at key positions, among them Antoine Bethea and Gary Brackett. The one key player they did let go, offensive lineman Ryan Lilja, was replaced with another veteran in Adam Terry.
The bad news for the Colts is that they do have positions of need. Yes, Peyton wows everyone. Yes, the team was at the top of the league in scoring defense, but they were vulnerable against the run and stayed around the middle of the league in passing defense. Also of concern are the six games won by four points or less, some of them very dramatic. There were a lot of ifs last season; IF Belichick didn't go for a fourth down, IF the Texans' defense would have held, IF the Jags had made that field goal. The Colts are good, but they are not invincible, and after last season teams smell blood in the water. Without significant upgrades to the interior linemen, ends, and at corner they could be a weaker team than people think. Don't get me wrong, they still have Bethea, they still have Dwight Freeney, they still have Robert Mathis, and they still have Bob Sanders, if they can all stay healthy and productive. The problem is that their defense does not always play at an elite level, and with some pretty hefty offensive upgrades in their division they could be looking at a year where their supremacy is challenged.
Offense is better news, but we'll get the bad news out of the way first. They have, at best, swapped one productive lineman for another, meaning that aspect of their running game will remain unchanged. in the limited play I saw from them, that seemed to be the area of need in terms of rushing. Donald Brown could run if you gave him a big enough hole, but the rushing attack was simply not effective. They were dead last in the league in yards per game and second to last in average, it's safe to say that without some outstanding receivers and quarterback their offense would have been dead. The same may hold true for this season, but one wonders, looking at their schedule, both if their defense will be able to keep them in some of these games and if a weak running game will open the door for defenses to focus in on and shut down the Colts' passing game. They do have some favorable matchups, but those are also interspersed with some challenging ones as well, and the division will undoubtedly be tougher this year. Jacksonville and Houston came very close on numerous occasions last season, they will be chomping at the bit to beat the Colts this season.
As I said, the good news is that the line is still as good in pass protection as ever, ranking first in the league last season in sacks allowed. They still have Manning who seems to be going into his twilight years in the league in full stride and without slowing down. They also still have Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Austin Collie, Pierre Garçon, and Dallas Clark. All that equates to them posessing one of the most ptent passing attacks in the league, but without run support and great defense they could fall short of the lofty expectations everyone has for this team.
Indianapolis Colts
2009 Record: 14-2, Division Champions
2009 Playoff Record: 2-1, AFC Champions
Key Losses: Ryan Lilja, Matt Stover, Hank Baskett
Key Additions: Jerry Hughes, Adam Terry, Pat Angerer
The additions and losses represent the general theme of the Colts' offseason moves, that is you probably don't see too many big names in either column. That's not really a bad thing, especially for a team that went 14-2 en route to a Superbowl berth. This team still has a lot of playmakers, and their offseason moves have been geared more towards acquiring players that could pan out in the future then to spending big money on coveted names that come along with hefty contracts. In fact, the majority of players the Colts have picked up in free agency have never played an NFL snap, which isn't necessarily a bad thing when you're simply looking to augment your roster and put these players in a position to learn from the best. What the breakdown doesn't show you, however, is that the Colts have made it a point to re-sign key players at key positions, among them Antoine Bethea and Gary Brackett. The one key player they did let go, offensive lineman Ryan Lilja, was replaced with another veteran in Adam Terry.
The bad news for the Colts is that they do have positions of need. Yes, Peyton wows everyone. Yes, the team was at the top of the league in scoring defense, but they were vulnerable against the run and stayed around the middle of the league in passing defense. Also of concern are the six games won by four points or less, some of them very dramatic. There were a lot of ifs last season; IF Belichick didn't go for a fourth down, IF the Texans' defense would have held, IF the Jags had made that field goal. The Colts are good, but they are not invincible, and after last season teams smell blood in the water. Without significant upgrades to the interior linemen, ends, and at corner they could be a weaker team than people think. Don't get me wrong, they still have Bethea, they still have Dwight Freeney, they still have Robert Mathis, and they still have Bob Sanders, if they can all stay healthy and productive. The problem is that their defense does not always play at an elite level, and with some pretty hefty offensive upgrades in their division they could be looking at a year where their supremacy is challenged.
Offense is better news, but we'll get the bad news out of the way first. They have, at best, swapped one productive lineman for another, meaning that aspect of their running game will remain unchanged. in the limited play I saw from them, that seemed to be the area of need in terms of rushing. Donald Brown could run if you gave him a big enough hole, but the rushing attack was simply not effective. They were dead last in the league in yards per game and second to last in average, it's safe to say that without some outstanding receivers and quarterback their offense would have been dead. The same may hold true for this season, but one wonders, looking at their schedule, both if their defense will be able to keep them in some of these games and if a weak running game will open the door for defenses to focus in on and shut down the Colts' passing game. They do have some favorable matchups, but those are also interspersed with some challenging ones as well, and the division will undoubtedly be tougher this year. Jacksonville and Houston came very close on numerous occasions last season, they will be chomping at the bit to beat the Colts this season.
As I said, the good news is that the line is still as good in pass protection as ever, ranking first in the league last season in sacks allowed. They still have Manning who seems to be going into his twilight years in the league in full stride and without slowing down. They also still have Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Austin Collie, Pierre Garçon, and Dallas Clark. All that equates to them posessing one of the most ptent passing attacks in the league, but without run support and great defense they could fall short of the lofty expectations everyone has for this team.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
NFC West Wrap-Up, Hope is not Dead, Off with his [proverbial] Head
It's been a busy week and a half in the sports world. The Blackhawks are not done dismantling their playoff team, though they have begun to make additions; the All-Star break is here for Major League Baseball and the White Sox are sitting on top of the Division by half a game; oh, and breaking news, the Cubs still suck. Perhaps the biggest news is the self-proclaimed King James snubbing a host of teams looking to upgrade this season for the now star-studded Miami Heat, making him arguably one of the most hated kings in a few centuries. Before we get into that, though, I'll start off with my early predictions for the NFC West.
Early Predictions:
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams
Every prediction I've read so far has the Seahawks finishing third behind the Niners and Cards, and perhaps picking Seattle as the second team will be almost as unpopular as picking the Raiders second in the AFC West, but I'm set to defend that decision. First off, I will say that there's no doubt in my mind that San Fran will win the division and St. Louis will finish last. San Francisco has kept a dominant defense in tact for the most part, and if their offensive line and running backs can perform at a high level it should be more than enough to carry the offense despite quarterback Alex Smith's progression. The Rams, on the other hand, have not done enough to upgrade. Their defense was woeful last season, and they have made few moves to remedy that. They have upgraded on offense in some areas, but not enough to compete at a high level with their opponents, not this year at least. The Seahawks, though, are looking to have some decent upward momentum this season. Pete Carroll may be pressed to prove he can make it as a head coach in the NFL, but he has much of the right personnel in place to back him up. They upgraded positions of need on the offensive line, secondary, and receiving corps in the early rounds of the draft, and added some help on defense in the later rounds in addition to acquiring some talented veterans. Their main competition figures to be Arizona, and neither one of their quarterbacks looks to be ready to lead that offense. Arizona will also have to rely on their running game, which is still a question mark, and there's no guarantee their defense will be keeping them in a position to win after key departures. As I said, the consensus seems to be San Fran, THEN the Cardinals, then the Seahawks, but I'm confident in my picks. Arizona looks to be slipping while Seattle looks to be doing some solid building. The biggest question, I think, will be if Seattle can win enough games to capture a Wild Card. It looks doubtful, but they could surprise people.
The All-Star break is here and the Sox are in first place, but in the words of Han Solo, "we're not outta this yet." There's still a lot of ball to play in Chicago and the going is going to get tough, but can the tough get going? I'll revel a bit in light of the fact that I predicted the elven game winning streak was not a flash in the pan, and after returning to the AL and putting together a seven game streak it doesn't look like that. There are a lot of questions, though. Losing has coincided with hitting slumps in this and past seasons, can the bats stay hot? Fielding isn't a concern for me, but can the pitching hold up, especially with the loss of Jake Peavy for the season? Finally, in past seasons the Sox have missed out on the playoffs due to poor play against division rivals, can they put the screws to Minnesota and Detroit? The next couple of months have plenty of games against those two teams, who are still in hot pursuit of the division crown, the Sox will have to put up or shut up against them. Lastly in Sox news, there's still talk of trading for a left-handed bat or someone to replace Peavy, but who are the Sox going to give up? To me, the only viable option is Konerko simply because of his age, but do you really want to dump a hot bat when the club is challenging for the division? Hopefully it all pans out for this club.
You know what grinds my gears? People who talk about Zambrano going to the Sox. The man is an incident waiting to happen, who had one outstanding season in his career and has been up and down in other seasons. He's fallen off lately, and frankly I don't think he's a starting pitcher anymore. In fact, I'd be remiss to put him in any bullpen, much less one that's working as well as the Sox'. Do us a favor and keep Carlos off the South Side, there's only room for one hot-headed Latino there and Ozzie's a lot more likable. Also, people who say you need an all-star QB to win in the NFL. I know that Peyton, Favre, Brees, and Warner are all forces at the position, but they do not represent the only way to win. I will go back to the old adage, defense wins Superbowls. Every season there are teams like the Jets, the Bengals, and the Ravens who go deep in the playoffs based on defense and running. Furthermore, there have been four Superbowl winning teams this decade that have won based on that strategy, and defense has played a major role in every Superbowl for at least that long. People are saying Alex Smith must lead his team in order to make a playoff run, but I say he only needs to play consistently. During the 2006 season, the Bears went to the Superbowl behind a dominant defense and run game, and despite inconsistent play from quarterback Rex Grossman. Grossman had a plus 100 passer rating in seven games, yet a sub 50 one in five. With better play in the Superbowl the Bears could have won. They didn't need him to have a plus 100 game, they just needed him to have a 60-75 game. Alex Smith doesn't need to be Tom Brady, he needs to manage the game. Quarterbacks like him can still win behind good defenses and running games in the NFL.
In addition to the losses they suffered a couple of weeks ago, the Hawks have now lost Niklas Hjalmarsson to the Sharks. Hopefully all this means that they'll be able to keep defenseman John Madden, who a lot of people thought was a surefire loss. Hopefully the players the Hawks are getting out of a lot of these deals will work out, but the only proven commodity so far seems to be Marty Reasoner, and he needs to stay healthy. On one hand, the Hawks have gotten where they are through developing unsung talent, and there's reason to believe they can do so with their new prospects. However, it does seem like they're going a bit too far in dismantling a winning team, and I will have to again question the logic of getting rid of Bfyuglien, to me he was just too key a player both in size and production to give up. At least the Hawks aren't becoming the Yankees of the NHL, or can the Yankees still claim the title of biggest spenders in sports anymore?
And finally, the big news of the week is Lebron, Bosh, and Dwayne Wade all signing with the Miami Heat. I, like the rest of the world outside Miami, felt a little sick when I hear Lebron announce it. Yes, the whole show was self-aggrandizing, but I could forgive him if he had decided to make Chicago a better team. Hell, even New York or Cleveland would have been better than this, but now he is poison, I don't ever want to see him in a Bulls uniform or hear one more comparison to Jordan. Some people are saying that Jordan had Pippen, but that duo is still not the same as the trio of Wade, Bosh, and James. Together, they average 86 points a game, that's enough to win some of the lower-scoring games if no one else on the team scores a basket. The Bulls also didn't go out and buy three of the top stars in the NBA, both Pippen and Jordan were on the Bulls their draft seasons and the Bulls developed them into stars. And if the TV special to announce this wasn't enough, the show the three of them put on in Miami was downright disgusting. One of the hardest things to swallow is that the Bulls targeted all three, not only lost all three, but lost all three to the same team. LA and Boston were already making a mockery out of the league by buying up a horde of big names, but Miami has taken it to another level. Hopefully teams like the Magic, Hawks, and Bulls can still compete in the post-season, but this is just another example of why the MLB and NBA need to restructure their cap rules, and why the NHL and NFL have such an advantage over the former two in terms of their level of competition.
Early Predictions:
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams
Every prediction I've read so far has the Seahawks finishing third behind the Niners and Cards, and perhaps picking Seattle as the second team will be almost as unpopular as picking the Raiders second in the AFC West, but I'm set to defend that decision. First off, I will say that there's no doubt in my mind that San Fran will win the division and St. Louis will finish last. San Francisco has kept a dominant defense in tact for the most part, and if their offensive line and running backs can perform at a high level it should be more than enough to carry the offense despite quarterback Alex Smith's progression. The Rams, on the other hand, have not done enough to upgrade. Their defense was woeful last season, and they have made few moves to remedy that. They have upgraded on offense in some areas, but not enough to compete at a high level with their opponents, not this year at least. The Seahawks, though, are looking to have some decent upward momentum this season. Pete Carroll may be pressed to prove he can make it as a head coach in the NFL, but he has much of the right personnel in place to back him up. They upgraded positions of need on the offensive line, secondary, and receiving corps in the early rounds of the draft, and added some help on defense in the later rounds in addition to acquiring some talented veterans. Their main competition figures to be Arizona, and neither one of their quarterbacks looks to be ready to lead that offense. Arizona will also have to rely on their running game, which is still a question mark, and there's no guarantee their defense will be keeping them in a position to win after key departures. As I said, the consensus seems to be San Fran, THEN the Cardinals, then the Seahawks, but I'm confident in my picks. Arizona looks to be slipping while Seattle looks to be doing some solid building. The biggest question, I think, will be if Seattle can win enough games to capture a Wild Card. It looks doubtful, but they could surprise people.
The All-Star break is here and the Sox are in first place, but in the words of Han Solo, "we're not outta this yet." There's still a lot of ball to play in Chicago and the going is going to get tough, but can the tough get going? I'll revel a bit in light of the fact that I predicted the elven game winning streak was not a flash in the pan, and after returning to the AL and putting together a seven game streak it doesn't look like that. There are a lot of questions, though. Losing has coincided with hitting slumps in this and past seasons, can the bats stay hot? Fielding isn't a concern for me, but can the pitching hold up, especially with the loss of Jake Peavy for the season? Finally, in past seasons the Sox have missed out on the playoffs due to poor play against division rivals, can they put the screws to Minnesota and Detroit? The next couple of months have plenty of games against those two teams, who are still in hot pursuit of the division crown, the Sox will have to put up or shut up against them. Lastly in Sox news, there's still talk of trading for a left-handed bat or someone to replace Peavy, but who are the Sox going to give up? To me, the only viable option is Konerko simply because of his age, but do you really want to dump a hot bat when the club is challenging for the division? Hopefully it all pans out for this club.
You know what grinds my gears? People who talk about Zambrano going to the Sox. The man is an incident waiting to happen, who had one outstanding season in his career and has been up and down in other seasons. He's fallen off lately, and frankly I don't think he's a starting pitcher anymore. In fact, I'd be remiss to put him in any bullpen, much less one that's working as well as the Sox'. Do us a favor and keep Carlos off the South Side, there's only room for one hot-headed Latino there and Ozzie's a lot more likable. Also, people who say you need an all-star QB to win in the NFL. I know that Peyton, Favre, Brees, and Warner are all forces at the position, but they do not represent the only way to win. I will go back to the old adage, defense wins Superbowls. Every season there are teams like the Jets, the Bengals, and the Ravens who go deep in the playoffs based on defense and running. Furthermore, there have been four Superbowl winning teams this decade that have won based on that strategy, and defense has played a major role in every Superbowl for at least that long. People are saying Alex Smith must lead his team in order to make a playoff run, but I say he only needs to play consistently. During the 2006 season, the Bears went to the Superbowl behind a dominant defense and run game, and despite inconsistent play from quarterback Rex Grossman. Grossman had a plus 100 passer rating in seven games, yet a sub 50 one in five. With better play in the Superbowl the Bears could have won. They didn't need him to have a plus 100 game, they just needed him to have a 60-75 game. Alex Smith doesn't need to be Tom Brady, he needs to manage the game. Quarterbacks like him can still win behind good defenses and running games in the NFL.
In addition to the losses they suffered a couple of weeks ago, the Hawks have now lost Niklas Hjalmarsson to the Sharks. Hopefully all this means that they'll be able to keep defenseman John Madden, who a lot of people thought was a surefire loss. Hopefully the players the Hawks are getting out of a lot of these deals will work out, but the only proven commodity so far seems to be Marty Reasoner, and he needs to stay healthy. On one hand, the Hawks have gotten where they are through developing unsung talent, and there's reason to believe they can do so with their new prospects. However, it does seem like they're going a bit too far in dismantling a winning team, and I will have to again question the logic of getting rid of Bfyuglien, to me he was just too key a player both in size and production to give up. At least the Hawks aren't becoming the Yankees of the NHL, or can the Yankees still claim the title of biggest spenders in sports anymore?
And finally, the big news of the week is Lebron, Bosh, and Dwayne Wade all signing with the Miami Heat. I, like the rest of the world outside Miami, felt a little sick when I hear Lebron announce it. Yes, the whole show was self-aggrandizing, but I could forgive him if he had decided to make Chicago a better team. Hell, even New York or Cleveland would have been better than this, but now he is poison, I don't ever want to see him in a Bulls uniform or hear one more comparison to Jordan. Some people are saying that Jordan had Pippen, but that duo is still not the same as the trio of Wade, Bosh, and James. Together, they average 86 points a game, that's enough to win some of the lower-scoring games if no one else on the team scores a basket. The Bulls also didn't go out and buy three of the top stars in the NBA, both Pippen and Jordan were on the Bulls their draft seasons and the Bulls developed them into stars. And if the TV special to announce this wasn't enough, the show the three of them put on in Miami was downright disgusting. One of the hardest things to swallow is that the Bulls targeted all three, not only lost all three, but lost all three to the same team. LA and Boston were already making a mockery out of the league by buying up a horde of big names, but Miami has taken it to another level. Hopefully teams like the Magic, Hawks, and Bulls can still compete in the post-season, but this is just another example of why the MLB and NBA need to restructure their cap rules, and why the NHL and NFL have such an advantage over the former two in terms of their level of competition.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
NFC West Part Four: Scraping the Bottom
St. Louis Rams
2009 Record: 1-15, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did Not Qualify
Key Losses: Marc Bulger, Alex Barron, Leonard Little
Key Additions: Kevin Payne, Bobby Carpenter, Sam Bradford
That may be harsh, but for three seasons straight the St. Louis Rams have amassed three wins or less for a grand total of six wins in three seasons. To put that in perspective, the first year they really fell off from their success of the early part of the decade they had a record of 6-10. Simply put, they've become one of the worst teams in football and have been trying to put together a winning team for a while now. Though the team has more than a few young standouts on both sides of the ball, they still have a plethora of holes to fill. Steve Spagnuolo finds himself in a similar position to the one Jim Schwartz was in last year, having a roster with some very good players, but one still incapable of making even a late-season run. If Spagnuolo is given the time to assemble the right team he could go down as the coach who saved the Rams. He's a great defensive mind, but unfortunately doesn't have key players especially on defense to lead this team to a playoff berth yet. Whether he can assemble a team that can do so or not will take longer than one season to answer, but it must be assumed that he will need to show some notable improvement this season if he wants to get the chance. That probably means getting 4-6 wins, which might be a challenge in and of itself.
The Rams have holes all over their roster, but the best news is probably in their offense. Last season was a mixed bag, on the positive side they had Steven Jackson, on the negative side they had a lot of inconsistency at quarterback, a lack of playmakers at receiver, and an offensive line that neither protected the QB nor opened up a lot of running room for Jackson. The good news for this season, they possibly have a first round pick starting at QB and a second rounder starting at tackle. That might not be good news for most teams, but for a team in as dire need of playmakers as the Rams it's always a good thing to get youth in and have them learn, especially on the offensive line. Quarterback is a different story, though the young QBs who succeed typically do so behind a good line and rushing attack. There's a lot of potential for Bradford to be the next breakout QB with a back like Jackson behind him.
The bad news is that they don't have a ton of playmakers on the line or in the receiving corps. To be fair, it's very hard for them to address every single position of need in one offseason, but that doesn't change the fact that some positions are still sorely lacking. Their offensive line has been a shuffle for a while now, and they simply have to play better in run and pass support for this team to succeed. Their receiving corps is also noticeably thin, including their tight ends. They drafted two TEs in the fifth and sixth round, immediate production will probably be expected. Receiver is a bigger question, though, as no name really stands out aside from veteran Donnie Avery. This is one area that could be particularly damaging, as a young QB needs good receivers to throw to and help him out. This is another team that makes me question why so many veteran receivers are still looking for teams. Aside from the obvious big name of Terrell Owens, other receivers who are still available include Marty Booker, Javon Walker, Kevin Curtis, Laveranues Coles, and Mark Bradley. Any of these would provide an upgrade to a Rams' offense that is desperately in need of one, especially with a rookie taking the reigns at QB.
Defense looks to have even worse prospects. Aside from taking cornerback Jerome Murphy in the third round, they really didn't focus on defense until midway through the fifth round. The good news is that they have some good young players in safety O.J. Atogwe, and linebackers James Laurinaitis and Na'il Diggs. The bad news is they lack talent just about everywhere else. The Rams were ranked 29th in overall defense last year and have made very few additions to a unit that ranked so low. In addition, they allowed more points than any other team except the Lions, ranked 29th in third down percentage, 30th in sacks, and dead last in interceptions. This is not something that can be coached back to normal, especially when coach Spagnuolo has a definite lack of playmakers at one of the key positions in his scheme, defensive line. There is really not much to get excited about on defense, unless unheralded rookies step up in a big way expect them to be near the bottom of the league again.
Their schedule does also not bode well for them. Count San Francisco as two losses for the Rams right away, and the Cardinals and Seahawks don't look promising. Perhaps if those teams' problems are more pronounced than they are counting on the Rams could pull out a couple of division wins, but Rams fans should expect two division wins at best this season, another season of getting swept in the division at worst. They also play the AFC West and NFC South, and all those teams have the potential to beat up on St. Louis. I'd say the Rams' best chances for wins come from the Panthers and Bucs
Steve Spagnuolo still has his work cut out for him despite being in his second year. He still has many holes to fill and many positions of need, especially at key places such as along the offensive and defensive line. He has some good rookies and young stars who should at least keep the Rams competitive, but it doesn't look like it will be enough to overcome teams who have made larger strides such as the Raiders and Lions. They have a tough schedule ahead of them, and the rebuilding process is starting to put Spagnuolo in a position where he'll be pressed to keep his job. He might still do so if he can hang on another year and fill some of the big defensive holes, but as far as this season goes, it looks like another dismal finish for Rams fans.
2009 Record: 1-15, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did Not Qualify
Key Losses: Marc Bulger, Alex Barron, Leonard Little
Key Additions: Kevin Payne, Bobby Carpenter, Sam Bradford
That may be harsh, but for three seasons straight the St. Louis Rams have amassed three wins or less for a grand total of six wins in three seasons. To put that in perspective, the first year they really fell off from their success of the early part of the decade they had a record of 6-10. Simply put, they've become one of the worst teams in football and have been trying to put together a winning team for a while now. Though the team has more than a few young standouts on both sides of the ball, they still have a plethora of holes to fill. Steve Spagnuolo finds himself in a similar position to the one Jim Schwartz was in last year, having a roster with some very good players, but one still incapable of making even a late-season run. If Spagnuolo is given the time to assemble the right team he could go down as the coach who saved the Rams. He's a great defensive mind, but unfortunately doesn't have key players especially on defense to lead this team to a playoff berth yet. Whether he can assemble a team that can do so or not will take longer than one season to answer, but it must be assumed that he will need to show some notable improvement this season if he wants to get the chance. That probably means getting 4-6 wins, which might be a challenge in and of itself.
The Rams have holes all over their roster, but the best news is probably in their offense. Last season was a mixed bag, on the positive side they had Steven Jackson, on the negative side they had a lot of inconsistency at quarterback, a lack of playmakers at receiver, and an offensive line that neither protected the QB nor opened up a lot of running room for Jackson. The good news for this season, they possibly have a first round pick starting at QB and a second rounder starting at tackle. That might not be good news for most teams, but for a team in as dire need of playmakers as the Rams it's always a good thing to get youth in and have them learn, especially on the offensive line. Quarterback is a different story, though the young QBs who succeed typically do so behind a good line and rushing attack. There's a lot of potential for Bradford to be the next breakout QB with a back like Jackson behind him.
The bad news is that they don't have a ton of playmakers on the line or in the receiving corps. To be fair, it's very hard for them to address every single position of need in one offseason, but that doesn't change the fact that some positions are still sorely lacking. Their offensive line has been a shuffle for a while now, and they simply have to play better in run and pass support for this team to succeed. Their receiving corps is also noticeably thin, including their tight ends. They drafted two TEs in the fifth and sixth round, immediate production will probably be expected. Receiver is a bigger question, though, as no name really stands out aside from veteran Donnie Avery. This is one area that could be particularly damaging, as a young QB needs good receivers to throw to and help him out. This is another team that makes me question why so many veteran receivers are still looking for teams. Aside from the obvious big name of Terrell Owens, other receivers who are still available include Marty Booker, Javon Walker, Kevin Curtis, Laveranues Coles, and Mark Bradley. Any of these would provide an upgrade to a Rams' offense that is desperately in need of one, especially with a rookie taking the reigns at QB.
Defense looks to have even worse prospects. Aside from taking cornerback Jerome Murphy in the third round, they really didn't focus on defense until midway through the fifth round. The good news is that they have some good young players in safety O.J. Atogwe, and linebackers James Laurinaitis and Na'il Diggs. The bad news is they lack talent just about everywhere else. The Rams were ranked 29th in overall defense last year and have made very few additions to a unit that ranked so low. In addition, they allowed more points than any other team except the Lions, ranked 29th in third down percentage, 30th in sacks, and dead last in interceptions. This is not something that can be coached back to normal, especially when coach Spagnuolo has a definite lack of playmakers at one of the key positions in his scheme, defensive line. There is really not much to get excited about on defense, unless unheralded rookies step up in a big way expect them to be near the bottom of the league again.
Their schedule does also not bode well for them. Count San Francisco as two losses for the Rams right away, and the Cardinals and Seahawks don't look promising. Perhaps if those teams' problems are more pronounced than they are counting on the Rams could pull out a couple of division wins, but Rams fans should expect two division wins at best this season, another season of getting swept in the division at worst. They also play the AFC West and NFC South, and all those teams have the potential to beat up on St. Louis. I'd say the Rams' best chances for wins come from the Panthers and Bucs
Steve Spagnuolo still has his work cut out for him despite being in his second year. He still has many holes to fill and many positions of need, especially at key places such as along the offensive and defensive line. He has some good rookies and young stars who should at least keep the Rams competitive, but it doesn't look like it will be enough to overcome teams who have made larger strides such as the Raiders and Lions. They have a tough schedule ahead of them, and the rebuilding process is starting to put Spagnuolo in a position where he'll be pressed to keep his job. He might still do so if he can hang on another year and fill some of the big defensive holes, but as far as this season goes, it looks like another dismal finish for Rams fans.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
NFC West Part Three: Learning to Fly
Seattle Seahawks
2009 Record: 5-11, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did Not Qualify
Key Losses: Nate Burleson, Patrick Kerney, Walter Jones
Key Additions: Leon Washington, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate, Russell Okung
Alright, I know soon enough I'll be out of the NFC West and I'll be devoid of aviary puns, but for now I'm milking it for all it's worth. The Seahawks were the team to beat between the reigns of Warner in Arizona recently and St. Louis during the Greatest Show on Turf. Following a breakdown during Mike Holmgren's final year as head coach, the Seahawks quickly became one of the lower teams in the pecking order of the NFL, no pun intended, and are looking to rebound after two sub-.500 seasons.
The biggest story for the Seahawks so far, and there have been other big stories, is the acquisition of new coach Pete Carroll. Allow me a mini-rant here, Jim Mora should never have been fired so early on. Jim Mora inherited the Seahawks and had very little control over personnel. He received a 4-12 team and turned it into a 5-11 team, which isn't bad considering most new coaches typically regress during their first season. Furthermore, his much-praised predecessor, Mike Holmgren, was the coach who complied a 4-12 record the season before and who left him the majority of the personnel present. The good news is that Carroll shouldn't be a downgrade, at worst he should mirror Mora's performance. Carroll is a defensive-minded coach, and Seattle's primary weakness has been with its defense. Carroll hasn't been overly impressive with his NFL track record, though, and ironically was fired from the Jets after one season when he led them to a record that was just one game better than the one that got Mora fired from Seattle. It's a safe assumption he'll get at least one season to implement his system, but there could be problems if he doesn't show some immediate improvement. That might be easier said than done, considering the personnel moves he has made this season.
Seattle's offense has two very different sides. Up to this point, it has been predicated on a passing attack led by Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. That's a good thing and a bad thing, seeing as how despite his brilliant performance at times, Hasselbeck has been very prone to injury, and one could argue that said injury has kept the Seahawks from a better record the past two years. That brings the other aspect of the offense to light, the running and blocking. Both areas have been sub-par, and could be blamed in part for the excessive number of hits on Hasselbeck. Given that he sustained 41 sacks and 91 hits, it's no surprise that he missed three games last season. His running backs also did very little to take the pressure off him, amassing a meager four yards per carry and allowing defenses to focus in.
The news going into the season is also very lopsided. The good news is that Carroll has instituted a new zone blocking scheme and signed a handful of talented running backs. They added Leon Washington, a standout for the Jets, to veteran Julius Jones and newcomer Justin Forsett, both of whom have the potential to reach 1,000 yards given the right opportunity. The more likely scenario, though, is that the carries are split between all three, and if they can all hover around 500-700 yards the running game should be sufficient to keep pressure off Hasselbeck. That's no guarantee, though, as all three have questions of either durability or talent. Carroll will have to motivate them to play at their best to get that kind of production out of all three. He's also going to have to get his blocking scheme run very well by his line, which will likely rely heavily on the play of first round pick Russell Okung. Especially dependent on him will be pass defense, if Hasselbeck is hit as often as he was last season he probably won't make it all the way through. There's reason for optimism along the line and in the backfield, but the players must perform at a high level.
While Passing has typically been the strength for Seattle heading into the season, this season it looks like the area that has seen the least improvement. Among all the positions undergoing changes, the most active movement has been at the wide receiver position. Nate Burleson is arguably the biggest loss on the whole team, and his 812 yards won't easily be replaced. Seattle's offense sputtered when it lost Burleson last season, and the pressure will be on a group of veterans and youngsters to pick up the slack. having T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch around certainly helps things, but second round choice Golden Tate is yet another offensive rookie who must live up to high expectations if Seattle is to succeed.
Defensively, the Seahawks are also heavily reliant on rookies. They drafted on of the best safeties in the draft in Earl Thomas, and he will also have to meet expectations if Seattle is going to drag its pass defense up from 31st in the league. They haven't made too many other moves in the secondary, though, and in addition to the production from Thomas they will be relying on increased production from their corners. Their D-line is another area full of questions, last season they ranked last in the league in pass rush and the departure of veteran ends Darryl Tapp and Patrick Kerney won't help matters much. They picked up ends Chris Clemons and Robert Henderson, but comparing sack totals of the four from 2009 amounts to a net loss of four and a half sacks. Again, they will be heavily reliant on late round picks E.J. Wilson and Dexter Davis, and Henderson, who has never taken an NFL snap, for increased production. As far as run defense goes, they were just on the better side of half the league last year, and they should be counting on the continued improvement of young linebackers Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry to improve in that aspect or, at worst, remain at that level.
Seattle's strength of schedule will largely be determined by how all of their question marks turn out. Their defense will have to maintain a balance, as they face both pass and run heavy teams, but not a lot of balanced offenses. They do face some heavy pass rushes, however, and they will have to have a very good running game to keep pressure off Hasselbeck. Their swing games are no walks in the park, either, with Chicago fielding Julius Peppers and a high-octane passing system, and New York fielding what figures to be a dominant defense in terms of pass rush and secondary. Their biggest respite comes within their own division, with all of their opponents fielding offenses with shaky pass production. They should be poised to win a minimum of three division games, although San Fran looks to be a major hurdle for them; I wouldn't bet on them beating them in either game or challenging them for the division. They should be extremely competitive with the Cards, though, and have a decent chance of taking second place, with a Wild Card berth being an extreme longshot.
2009 Record: 5-11, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did Not Qualify
Key Losses: Nate Burleson, Patrick Kerney, Walter Jones
Key Additions: Leon Washington, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate, Russell Okung
Alright, I know soon enough I'll be out of the NFC West and I'll be devoid of aviary puns, but for now I'm milking it for all it's worth. The Seahawks were the team to beat between the reigns of Warner in Arizona recently and St. Louis during the Greatest Show on Turf. Following a breakdown during Mike Holmgren's final year as head coach, the Seahawks quickly became one of the lower teams in the pecking order of the NFL, no pun intended, and are looking to rebound after two sub-.500 seasons.
The biggest story for the Seahawks so far, and there have been other big stories, is the acquisition of new coach Pete Carroll. Allow me a mini-rant here, Jim Mora should never have been fired so early on. Jim Mora inherited the Seahawks and had very little control over personnel. He received a 4-12 team and turned it into a 5-11 team, which isn't bad considering most new coaches typically regress during their first season. Furthermore, his much-praised predecessor, Mike Holmgren, was the coach who complied a 4-12 record the season before and who left him the majority of the personnel present. The good news is that Carroll shouldn't be a downgrade, at worst he should mirror Mora's performance. Carroll is a defensive-minded coach, and Seattle's primary weakness has been with its defense. Carroll hasn't been overly impressive with his NFL track record, though, and ironically was fired from the Jets after one season when he led them to a record that was just one game better than the one that got Mora fired from Seattle. It's a safe assumption he'll get at least one season to implement his system, but there could be problems if he doesn't show some immediate improvement. That might be easier said than done, considering the personnel moves he has made this season.
Seattle's offense has two very different sides. Up to this point, it has been predicated on a passing attack led by Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. That's a good thing and a bad thing, seeing as how despite his brilliant performance at times, Hasselbeck has been very prone to injury, and one could argue that said injury has kept the Seahawks from a better record the past two years. That brings the other aspect of the offense to light, the running and blocking. Both areas have been sub-par, and could be blamed in part for the excessive number of hits on Hasselbeck. Given that he sustained 41 sacks and 91 hits, it's no surprise that he missed three games last season. His running backs also did very little to take the pressure off him, amassing a meager four yards per carry and allowing defenses to focus in.
The news going into the season is also very lopsided. The good news is that Carroll has instituted a new zone blocking scheme and signed a handful of talented running backs. They added Leon Washington, a standout for the Jets, to veteran Julius Jones and newcomer Justin Forsett, both of whom have the potential to reach 1,000 yards given the right opportunity. The more likely scenario, though, is that the carries are split between all three, and if they can all hover around 500-700 yards the running game should be sufficient to keep pressure off Hasselbeck. That's no guarantee, though, as all three have questions of either durability or talent. Carroll will have to motivate them to play at their best to get that kind of production out of all three. He's also going to have to get his blocking scheme run very well by his line, which will likely rely heavily on the play of first round pick Russell Okung. Especially dependent on him will be pass defense, if Hasselbeck is hit as often as he was last season he probably won't make it all the way through. There's reason for optimism along the line and in the backfield, but the players must perform at a high level.
While Passing has typically been the strength for Seattle heading into the season, this season it looks like the area that has seen the least improvement. Among all the positions undergoing changes, the most active movement has been at the wide receiver position. Nate Burleson is arguably the biggest loss on the whole team, and his 812 yards won't easily be replaced. Seattle's offense sputtered when it lost Burleson last season, and the pressure will be on a group of veterans and youngsters to pick up the slack. having T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch around certainly helps things, but second round choice Golden Tate is yet another offensive rookie who must live up to high expectations if Seattle is to succeed.
Defensively, the Seahawks are also heavily reliant on rookies. They drafted on of the best safeties in the draft in Earl Thomas, and he will also have to meet expectations if Seattle is going to drag its pass defense up from 31st in the league. They haven't made too many other moves in the secondary, though, and in addition to the production from Thomas they will be relying on increased production from their corners. Their D-line is another area full of questions, last season they ranked last in the league in pass rush and the departure of veteran ends Darryl Tapp and Patrick Kerney won't help matters much. They picked up ends Chris Clemons and Robert Henderson, but comparing sack totals of the four from 2009 amounts to a net loss of four and a half sacks. Again, they will be heavily reliant on late round picks E.J. Wilson and Dexter Davis, and Henderson, who has never taken an NFL snap, for increased production. As far as run defense goes, they were just on the better side of half the league last year, and they should be counting on the continued improvement of young linebackers Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry to improve in that aspect or, at worst, remain at that level.
Seattle's strength of schedule will largely be determined by how all of their question marks turn out. Their defense will have to maintain a balance, as they face both pass and run heavy teams, but not a lot of balanced offenses. They do face some heavy pass rushes, however, and they will have to have a very good running game to keep pressure off Hasselbeck. Their swing games are no walks in the park, either, with Chicago fielding Julius Peppers and a high-octane passing system, and New York fielding what figures to be a dominant defense in terms of pass rush and secondary. Their biggest respite comes within their own division, with all of their opponents fielding offenses with shaky pass production. They should be poised to win a minimum of three division games, although San Fran looks to be a major hurdle for them; I wouldn't bet on them beating them in either game or challenging them for the division. They should be extremely competitive with the Cards, though, and have a decent chance of taking second place, with a Wild Card berth being an extreme longshot.
Friday, July 2, 2010
NFC West Part Two: Clipped Wings
Arizona Cardinals
2009 Record: 10-6, Division Champions
2009 Playoff Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Karlos Dansby, Antrel Rolle
Key Additions: Joey Porter, Kerry Rhodes, Dan Williams, Alan Faneca
The Cards have been the team to beat in the West since the glory days of Mike Holmgren ended after the 07 season. Normally a team that went to the Superbowl two years ago and the Division Championship Game last season would be considered a heavy favorite to win their division again, but the recent resurgence of the Cardinals has also coincided with the recent resurgence of the now retired Kurt Warner. Despite the recent success of this team, one has to wonder if Ken Whisenhunt can succeed despite the lack of a suitable replacement for Warner at QB. Furthermore, there have been losses on the defensive side that could hamper the Cardinals' quest to return to the big game, and with Seattle and St. Louis both taking steps towards building better clubs it's not a particularly good time to be slipping. Still, they should at least have enough left in the tank to finish second in the division, although their chances of unseating the explosive looking Niners or getting a Wild Card berth seem slim at this point.
We'll start out on offense, last season everyone knew that this club was capable of winning on any given week because of their high-powered passing attack led by Kurt Warner. They finished the season ranked fourteenth in total offense, posting an average of 344 yards per game and 23 points per game, despite the running game producing less than 100 yards per game and a sub-par 4.1 YPC average. Word is that Whisenhunt will be running a more traditional offense, running the ball to set up the pass. This is probably mostly out of necessity, seeing as how he doesn't have Kurt Warner in the pocket anymore. We'll see how this works out with the young tandem of Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower in the backfield. Both have showed flashes at times, but will have to perform consistently if they are to fulfill their role in the Cardinals' new offense. Also key to the running game will be the performance of the offensive line. Pro-Bowler Alan Faneca was a great pickup who should be a big factor in this regard, but the rest of the line is a question mark. Furthermore, one of the biggest factors in a line's performance is typically the center, and there's a question of if Faneca will be a difference-maker on the line without a commanding center leading it.
Also among the offensive concerns are the departures of receivers Anquan Boldin and Jerheme Urban. One thing that always helps a struggling QB is having good receivers to pass to. Not that the Cards don't have good receivers; Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston are still extremely good starters, and Early Doucet should still be able to fill in nicely as the third receiver. Steve Breaston, though, is just no Anquan Boldin. Having Boldin and Fitzgerald on the field at once gave the Cards a dangerous starting duo, and Breaston, Doucet, and Urban filled in at other receiving positions nicely. With Breaston now taking on starting duties and Doucet being the only other accomplished receiver one has to wonder if the passing game won't be hampered further.
Their secondary is a bit of a question, they were ranked seventh in the league in interceptions last year, but sixteenth in touchdowns allowed. They lost safety Antrel Rolle, but gained Kerry Rhodes, essentially a wash, and their strong safety, Adrian Wilson, should still be phenomenal at the position. Cornerback, however, is still a patchwork, maybe even more so after the departure of Bryant McFadden. The corner position now rests solely on the shoulders of Dominique Rodgers-Cromarite, who will have to continue to produce at the position alongside whoever wins the second starting job from the free agents they've picked up.
Their rushing defense is another story, however, as they ranked 28th in the league at the end of 2009. They spent their first and second round picks on a defensive tackle and lineman, and those young players will have heavy pressure to perform well right out of the gate. They also could be looking at an almost entirely new linebacking corps this season, as Karlos Dansby is now gone and Chike Okeafor has yet to re-sign. They added Joey Porter, but he's getting on in years as is their projected starter at nose tackle, Bryan Robinson. This defense front could figure to see no improvement from last year, which would put a major hole in their chances at a post-season.
They still have a decent core of players on both sides of the ball. Kerry Rhodes, Adrian Wilson, and Darnell Dockett are among the players who should figure to keep them competitive on defense, but there are still some major areas of importance where players will have to step up. On offense, every single area is in need of improvement except for receiver, and the pressure will be on a corps that has lost its second star to pick up some of the slack. The talent is there in most areas on offense, if Wells, Hightower, Faneca, and the backup receivers perform to their highest level of talent they should be in good shape. However, slips in any of those areas could put pressure on either Derek Anderson or Matt Leinart, and neither has proven they have what it takes to lead a team the way Kurt Warner did. They'll have their work cut out for them playing 2009 playoff teams like Minnesota and Dallas who haven't had the roster changes that Arizona has had, in addition to some dangerous teams in the NFC South and a resurgent AFC West. They could also run into mismatches within their division, and the 49ers are in a decent position to sweep the Cards for the second season in a row. Arizona is in a tough position, and they will have to fire on all cylinders if they want to have any hopes of making the playoffs.
2009 Record: 10-6, Division Champions
2009 Playoff Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Karlos Dansby, Antrel Rolle
Key Additions: Joey Porter, Kerry Rhodes, Dan Williams, Alan Faneca
The Cards have been the team to beat in the West since the glory days of Mike Holmgren ended after the 07 season. Normally a team that went to the Superbowl two years ago and the Division Championship Game last season would be considered a heavy favorite to win their division again, but the recent resurgence of the Cardinals has also coincided with the recent resurgence of the now retired Kurt Warner. Despite the recent success of this team, one has to wonder if Ken Whisenhunt can succeed despite the lack of a suitable replacement for Warner at QB. Furthermore, there have been losses on the defensive side that could hamper the Cardinals' quest to return to the big game, and with Seattle and St. Louis both taking steps towards building better clubs it's not a particularly good time to be slipping. Still, they should at least have enough left in the tank to finish second in the division, although their chances of unseating the explosive looking Niners or getting a Wild Card berth seem slim at this point.
We'll start out on offense, last season everyone knew that this club was capable of winning on any given week because of their high-powered passing attack led by Kurt Warner. They finished the season ranked fourteenth in total offense, posting an average of 344 yards per game and 23 points per game, despite the running game producing less than 100 yards per game and a sub-par 4.1 YPC average. Word is that Whisenhunt will be running a more traditional offense, running the ball to set up the pass. This is probably mostly out of necessity, seeing as how he doesn't have Kurt Warner in the pocket anymore. We'll see how this works out with the young tandem of Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower in the backfield. Both have showed flashes at times, but will have to perform consistently if they are to fulfill their role in the Cardinals' new offense. Also key to the running game will be the performance of the offensive line. Pro-Bowler Alan Faneca was a great pickup who should be a big factor in this regard, but the rest of the line is a question mark. Furthermore, one of the biggest factors in a line's performance is typically the center, and there's a question of if Faneca will be a difference-maker on the line without a commanding center leading it.
Also among the offensive concerns are the departures of receivers Anquan Boldin and Jerheme Urban. One thing that always helps a struggling QB is having good receivers to pass to. Not that the Cards don't have good receivers; Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston are still extremely good starters, and Early Doucet should still be able to fill in nicely as the third receiver. Steve Breaston, though, is just no Anquan Boldin. Having Boldin and Fitzgerald on the field at once gave the Cards a dangerous starting duo, and Breaston, Doucet, and Urban filled in at other receiving positions nicely. With Breaston now taking on starting duties and Doucet being the only other accomplished receiver one has to wonder if the passing game won't be hampered further.
Their secondary is a bit of a question, they were ranked seventh in the league in interceptions last year, but sixteenth in touchdowns allowed. They lost safety Antrel Rolle, but gained Kerry Rhodes, essentially a wash, and their strong safety, Adrian Wilson, should still be phenomenal at the position. Cornerback, however, is still a patchwork, maybe even more so after the departure of Bryant McFadden. The corner position now rests solely on the shoulders of Dominique Rodgers-Cromarite, who will have to continue to produce at the position alongside whoever wins the second starting job from the free agents they've picked up.
Their rushing defense is another story, however, as they ranked 28th in the league at the end of 2009. They spent their first and second round picks on a defensive tackle and lineman, and those young players will have heavy pressure to perform well right out of the gate. They also could be looking at an almost entirely new linebacking corps this season, as Karlos Dansby is now gone and Chike Okeafor has yet to re-sign. They added Joey Porter, but he's getting on in years as is their projected starter at nose tackle, Bryan Robinson. This defense front could figure to see no improvement from last year, which would put a major hole in their chances at a post-season.
They still have a decent core of players on both sides of the ball. Kerry Rhodes, Adrian Wilson, and Darnell Dockett are among the players who should figure to keep them competitive on defense, but there are still some major areas of importance where players will have to step up. On offense, every single area is in need of improvement except for receiver, and the pressure will be on a corps that has lost its second star to pick up some of the slack. The talent is there in most areas on offense, if Wells, Hightower, Faneca, and the backup receivers perform to their highest level of talent they should be in good shape. However, slips in any of those areas could put pressure on either Derek Anderson or Matt Leinart, and neither has proven they have what it takes to lead a team the way Kurt Warner did. They'll have their work cut out for them playing 2009 playoff teams like Minnesota and Dallas who haven't had the roster changes that Arizona has had, in addition to some dangerous teams in the NFC South and a resurgent AFC West. They could also run into mismatches within their division, and the 49ers are in a decent position to sweep the Cards for the second season in a row. Arizona is in a tough position, and they will have to fire on all cylinders if they want to have any hopes of making the playoffs.
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