Week one has come and gone with plenty of surprises. Some surprises I called, some surprises baffled even me, and some no one expected. I'll go through my picks and the outcomes for the first week of NFL ball.
New Orleans Saints def. Minnesota Vikings
I said the Saints would be the ones with the hangover, I was dead wrong. The defending champs were the ones coming out with something to prove, and anyone who doubts that this is a complete team is frankly insane. I had them going 14-2 when I thought Minnesota was going to beat them, and after week one I have no doubt that they'll take their division and get a first round bye this year. Minnesota fans shouldn't be too concerned, the Saints played a tremendous game, they'll only have to worry if the Vikings start dropping divisional games, which is a distinct possibility.
Jacksonville Jaguars def. Denver Broncos
I love to say I told you so, especially with my upsets. The win wasn't as convincing as I might have thought, though the weak spots in that offense definitely showed. 295 yards passing is definitely a concern for a Jaguars team in a pass-heavy division, though holding the Broncos' rushing game to under 100 yards is promising. Very disturbing for them, though, is the fact that they had three sacks and still managed to give up so many passing yards. This looks like the beginning of a long year for the Broncos, though, as they face much tougher defenses in the weeks to come.
Tennessee Titans def. Oakland Raiders
Another prediction I'm pretty proud of. As I said, the Raiders did pretty well, limiting the Titans' passing game and gaining 180 yards through the air. They couldn't stop Chris Johnson, though, who gained almost 150 yards rushing and set the pace for another 2,000 yards season. Don't worry Raiders fans, not every team has a back like that.
New England Patriots def. Cincinnati Bengals
I am handed my first defeat, but I also said Brady could be the game changer. Frankly, the Bengals disappointed me, if this is what we can expect from them then I see them as no better than third in the division. I was a little wary of their secondary, but frankly their entire defense sucked it up laying a goose egg in the sack column. I still think the Patriots are who I thought they were going into the season, the Bengals will show if they can really compete when they face their division rivals next week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Cleveland Browns
This is one of the misses I'm a little peeved about, I thought Cleveland was ready to make a statement and they didn't make much effort last week. Jake Delhomme passed for 227 yards, they held Cadillac Williams to 75 yards, but their defense still couldn't stop the second year QB from going up on them. If I were a Browns fan I'd be starting the campaign to oust Mangini now, only I'm not a Browns fan and I started my campaign to oust him early last year. Either way, I think his time is short.
Houston Texans def. Indianapolis Colts
I stand corrected here, the Texans beat the Colts in week one and if they play that way the rest of the season they could sweep Indy for the first time in franchise history. Peyton Manning keeps this team in contention, but the Colts are no longer the team to beat in this division.
Chicago Bears def. Detroit Lions
Ooooh, controversy. First a little analysis, kudos to the Lions on their rush defense and pass rush, those are both bright spots. My praise of them ends there, though. Nate Burleson is going to make less of a difference than I thought if this game is any indication. The line got killed by the Bears' pass rush, the receivers weren't that outstanding, and the offense looks to be an area of concern for this team yet again. People are also being to hard on the Bears, who were first in the league in total offense, second in passing offense, second in total defense, and first in rush defense. Julius Peppers looked great, and the linebackers provided excellent support. There are two areas of concern, one is the red zone offense, that has to get better. Two, the corners didn't look like they can play at an elite level. I'm especially suspicious of Zack Bowman, who was tasked with guarding Calvin Johnson on the controversial call and whom I've been saying isn't up to the task of guarding elite receivers for a long time now.
As to the call, let me first say to the Lions fans who are whining that the call wouldn't have even mattered had Lovie decided to kick the field goal instead of going for it on fourth and one. The Lions also had a call go their way when a Jahvid Best play was ruled a touchdown, and for the life of me I can't see what the refs were seeing to call it that way. It's not like the catch was the only factor in the Lions losing. Second, the call was right, Johnson grabbed the ball, got to the ground, and before he was up let go of the ball, that counts as the process of the catch. Now I do think the rule is incorrect, that should be a touchdown pass, but according to the rulebook it is not. Blame the rules, not the call. Kudos to coach Jim Schwartz for knowing as much and not making excuses, perhaps William Ford should take a page from his book. The owner's tirade this week was frankly embarrassing, someone with such a stake in the league should learn some better decorum. Again, I look forward to the rule being changed or clarified in the offseason, but the right call was made on Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers def. Atlanta Falcons
I knew Atlanta was overrated, I just didn't know how much. I knew the Steelers team was good, I just didn't know how good. Rashard Mendenhall and the defense made up for the lack of Ben Roethlisberger, though they could face a tougher challenge when they travel to Tennessee and have to face Chris Johnson. The Falcons, on the other hand, could get back on track. Matt Ryan had a good game passing, and Arizona got burned by rookie passer Sam Bradford last week, the matchup should favor the Falcons.
Miami Dolphins def. Buffalo Bills
One down, fifteen to go. Honestly, I was a little surprised it was as close as it was. Brandon Marshall only had 53 receiving yards, the Dolphins only had 130 rushing yards (I know, ONLY 130, but it's the Bills). I'm starting to lose a little faith in Miami, it'll be interesting to see how they stack up against the Vikings next week.
New York Giants def. Carolina Panthers
Again, I'm surprised at some of the numbers. I didn't think the Giants were going to give up that many points, but they did hold them to 140 passing yards and registered four sacks and three interceptions. Not the statement game you're looking for, but still a very solid performance. What surprised me most was Eli Manning's performance, we'll see if he can repeat it against the Colts.
Green Bay Packers def. Philadelphia Eagles
Yet again, another win that was closer than expected. Maybe the Packers aren't as good as everybody says, they did allow Michael Vick to rack up 278 yards of total offense, though they were able to hold in the end. Speaking of Vick, I truly believe he should be the starter when Kolb returns, though that doesn't look like it will happen. Rodgers was impressive, but we'll see if teams can't find ways to control him, especially without the presence of Ryan Grant.
Arizona Cardinals def. St. Louis Rams
I'm not sure if I should be impressed by the Rams or disappointed in the Cardinals. Both teams look to have problems at this point, I think they could be in for long years.
Seattle Seahawks def. San Francisco 49ers
I knew Seattle was going to be good, I just didn't know how good. I think you have to give the Hawks credit, they he;d Frank Gore in check and that proved to be the difference in the game. I don't think Niners fans should panic just yet, Alex Smith put up some decent yards and the defense played well. They need to play as a balanced team, though, and Seattle just showed the entire league the formula for beating them. At any rate, it could be a dogfight between these two teams for the Division Title.
Washington Redskins def. Dallas Cowboys
I love to say I told you so. I won't lie, the Cowboys are in trouble. Washington's offense looked lethargic, they have some receiver problems, and Haynesworth still seems to be a distraction. Still, the Redskins were able to beat Dallas on defense and that line does not look like it can take this team deep in the playoffs. Marc Colombo will start against the Bears, and how he performs against Julius Peppers will determine if he and Doug Free can hold their own or if Barron was the only weak link in the chain against Washington.
Baltimore Ravens def. New York Jets
I said ti would be a good defensive game, it was. People saying the Jets are out of it this early are crazy, the Ravens played an excellent game and the Jets were right there with them. They won't have an easy time against New England this week, but they won't be pushovers either.
Kansas City Chiefs def. San Diego Chargers
Another big surprise, but I said that the Chiefs would run all over the Bolts. perhaps the bigger surprise is that Phillip Rivers passed for almost 300 yards and the Chargers were still held to 14 points, or that the Chiefs held the Chargers' run game to only 109 yards. My opinion on the Chiefs hasn't changed, my opinion on the Chargers has.
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