Football is finally here!!! And I'm bringing you some primo picks, almost 63% last season. This is the point in the season when I start throwing out less disclaimers, but I'll have one last disclaimer for good measure, many things change during the course of the season. Teams that were predicted to be good turn out to stink, and perennial losers surprise almost everyone. Usually which teams are going to buck the trends can be rooted out after week one, though, so although my predictions might be shaky this week, they'll probably even out fairly fast. I think I've got a good sense of where the games are headed, though, so without any further adieu, my picks for week one of the 2010 NFL season:
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
This one was tough for me. Both teams are looking good, both have high-powered offenses, and both look to do some significant damage this year. I have to admit I was leaning towards the Saints, I think their pass rush will be good this year and their secondary is better than Minnesota's. I'm going with intangibles on this one, though. I think New Orleans will have a slight Superbowl hangover and the Vikes are looking to avenge their loss in the NFC Championship game.
Prediction: Vikings
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars
This is my upset of the week. I was kind of down on the Broncos before they started losing stars to injury, without some key names on defense I think they'll do no better than third in the division. Jacksonville is an overlooked team, they have Maurice Jones-Drew, David Garrard, Aaron Kampman, and they're a hungry team. At home, to open the season, against a banged-up Broncos run defense, I'm taking Jacksonville.
Prediction: Jaguars
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
I think the Raiders will do well this season, a loss on opening day won't set them back that much. Jason Campbell is starting to mesh with his receivers, but the defense worries me. I think they will get better, but will sputter against 2k rusher Chris Johnson in the first week. Furthermore, I don't think Oakland's own run game will be that effective, and Tennessee starts the season out on the right foot.
Prediction: Titans
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
The Patriots will be good this season, but so will the Bengals. Ced Benson will come out running with a vengeance the way he did last season, and an otherwise solid Patriots run defense will have problems. New England, on the other hand, will have trouble getting their own run game going against a solid Bengals' defense. The game changer could be which quarterback performs better and I think Brady could pull out a win, but I still have more faith in the Bengals here.
Prediction: Bengals
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The difference in this game? Defense. The Browns are good at generating sacks and will create problems for young QB Josh Freeman. Delhomme will be solid in week one, we'll have to wait to see how he holds up over the rest of the season. Even more than the Browns' defense, though, is the Bucs lack of one. I think the Browns run all over them, and start an otherwise painful season out on a positive note.
Prediction: Browns
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
I think the Texans will win a game against the Colts, but not in week one. I was tempted by homefield advantage to take them, but I say Peyton and crew come out of the gates running. You don't beat Indy in week one, unless you're da Bears of course, and this year will be no exception.
Prediction: Colts
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
I was tempted to take the Lions, a young team with a lot to prove typically shines early. Still, with protection problems and Chicago picking up Julius Peppers I say Matthew Stafford has one of his longer games of the season and it costs the Lions. Jay Cutler, on the other hand, will shine and lead the Bears to victory.
Prediction: Bears
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
All season long the analysts have been talking up Atlanta, then when they have the chance to pick them against a Steelers' team missing its star QB they wimp out. Atlanta's not taking the division this year, but they take an easy win against an incomplete Steelers' team.
Prediction: Falcons
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
I had Buffalo going 0-16 in my regular season predictions. That outlook might change during the season, but they're still not going to beat division rival Miami in week one. Miami runs and passes all over them, Trent Edwards struggles early, and C.J. Spiller learns what its like running behind the most lethargic line in the NFL.
Prediction: Dolphins
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
The Panthers are a young team missing their star pass rusher. The Giants are a balanced team in terms of age with a new defensive coordinator and a great outlook. Steve Smith gets shut down by Perry Fewell, Eli Manning gets good protection and has a good game, and the Giants start out the season with an easy win.
Prediction: Giants
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Packers have a good outlook going into 2010 with an explosive defense and quarterback. The Eagles' defense has been slumping recently and they have a new QB behind center. Injuries or no, Kolb isn't going to carve up the Pack's secondary. Rodgers, on the other hand, could do some damage in the Eagles'.
Prediction: Packers
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
The Rams have problems. Anderson might not be the best quarterback ever, but he should be good enough to get enough points to beat the Rams. The Cards might not be able to stop Steven Jackson, but they'll wreak havoc with rookie QB Sam Bradford.
Prediction: Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Lotta division games in week one. The Niners are looking good this season, and I don't know that even Matt Hasslebeck will be able to carve them up. Their offense could get one-dimensional if teams focus in on Alex Smith, but I expect them to be able to maintain balance against Seattle.
Prediction: 49ers
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Dallas has some issues and the Redskins are eager to prove what they can do. More importantly, Washington matches up well. The Cowboys have secondary issues, McNabb can exploit that. The Cowboys have line issues, Orakpo can exploit that. At home, I have to take the Skins.
Prediction: Redskins
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
This is going to be an amazing game, so much so that it gets my game of the week honors. Both teams have an amazing defense, both teams can thrown the ball, both teams can run the ball. I think people are underestimating Baltimore's secondary, especially with Ken Hamlin back there. Revis might be shut-down, but I say between Rice, Boldin, and all the other playmakers the Ravens find a way to win.
Prediction: Ravens
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
I don't think the Chargers are as good as everyone makes them out to be. I don't think the Chiefs are as bad as everyone makes them out to be. The Chargers are especially weak against the run, I think the Chiefs will have an excellent run game this year. Still, I don't think they have what it takes to beat Phillip Rivers and company. The Chargers win this one, but the Chiefs make it interesting, which is why this game gets my pick for sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Chargers
There you have it, week one. Check back on Monday to see how right I was, and later next week for my week two picks.
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