San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
It's never easy with these teams, is it? Cleveland was a win, but it wasn't an overly impressive one. Beating San Diego was impressive, but they showed in week two that they were just in a funk. The Niners held the Pierre Thomas to 46 yards, though the impact of that is debatable. In the end, I believe the rush will determine this one, and both teams have sensational backs (the cuts Jamaal Charles made last week were amazing). Niners have the edge on rush defense, though, and between that and their showing last week against the Saints I think they can finally pull out their first win in week three.
Prediction: 49ers
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
Washington took Houston to task last week and Matt Schaub brought them back to win. Dallas may improve, but I don't see them improving enough to beat a sensational team on offense and defense like the Texans.
Prediction: Texans
Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants
The Titans are good with the run and the Giants did get stomped by a poor rushing team, but that was because Perry Fewell resolved to only play the pass last week and got burned. Look for him to do the opposite this week, stack extra rushers in the box and let his secondary do what they typically do in his system, get picks. They couldn't victimize Peyton, but as I said that's because he's Peyton. Collins or Young will have a harder time with them, and the Giants will pull this one out.
Prediction: Giants
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year I spent weeks and weeks predicting the Broncos to lose and they didn't, I learned my lesson. I'm done doubting Pittsburgh, that defense is elite and can win games on its own. They could end up sweeping these four games and improving once Ben gets back, they are going to be scary good if they can play at this level all year.
Prediction: Steelers
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Detroit keeps tempting me to pick them, like the sirens calling out to Odysseus. Minnesota has looked bad, but they have looked bad against some damn good defenses. Detroit can rush the passer and stuff the run, but can they shut down Brett Favre with that secondary? I think not.
Prediction: Vikings
Atlanta Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Atlanta is one of those teams that everyone keeps telling me is good, I just don't see it. 27th in rush defense, 29th in scoring defense; the only bright spots on that side of the ball are their sack and pick numbers, and I don't see Brees and that line getting burned by them. Settle into second, guys, because you're not unseating the Saints until you get some upgrades.
Prediction: Saints
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens may have stumbled against the Bengals, but no way are they going to lose at home against the Browns. The Browns haven't even convinced me they can seal up the games that are winnable, much less compete against a tough rival.
Prediction: Ravens
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Do you really have to ask? Three down, thirteen to go.
Prediction: Patriots
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers
The Bengals got me back on the bandwagon with their win over Baltimore, the Panthers got me off theirs with a loss at home to Tampa.
Prediction: Bengals
Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams
The Redskins and McNabb are both back, watch out. Both teams have surpassed expectations, but the Redskins look to be too much of a challenge for the Rams to overcome.
Prediction: Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville got absolutely burned by the pass last week and hasn't been that great against the run, either. Philly made a stand against a good passing team in the Packers, and MJD is off to a slow start. Jaguars could surprise, but I don't think it's likely.
Prediction: Eagles
San Diego Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
Passing is the key here. Both teams have quarterbacks that can make or break a game, but San Diego is ranked 8th in pass defense and Seattle 26th.
Prediction: Chargers
Oakland Raiders @ Arizona Cardinals
Both teams have slumped in certain areas and excelled in others, the question is who can exploit those weaknesses best? The answer, Oakland. Both teams are pretty equal on offense and rush defense, but Oakland beats Arizona by miles on pass defense. Oakland is ranked fifth in the league in pass defense, Arizona 21st. Oakland also holds he edge in rushing, ranking third to Arizona's thirteenth. I expect this to turn into a rushing battle, but I believe Anderson will have a hard time against this Oakland defense and that will make the difference.
Prediction: Raiders
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
Both teams had slow starts followed by comeback losses, but I am most impressed by the Colts. The Broncos are still missing pieces on defense and still have some issues on offense that the Colts can exploit. Manning and company are rock solid, and though I wouldn't expect a repeat of last week's rushing performance when the Colts were blocking safeties with linemen, I do expect them to have a decent game against a weak Denver defense. The Broncos can be a surprise team, though, and that's why this is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Colts
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
It seems like every week I'm picking an AFC East game for game of the week, which is what I think this game will be. The NFC East has fallen off, the AFC East has claimed its title of most competitive division. This is going to be a good, defensive, rush-heavy game with a possible shootout sometime in the second half, it will have it all. The Dolphins have thoroughly impressed me, though, and between that and homefield advantage they get my pick here.
Prediction: Dolphins
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
I'll admit I have some doubts about this pick. Green Bay is good, there's no denying. However, I don't think they'll sweep the Bears this season, I think a series split is more likely. This week represents the best chance for the Bears to beat them, in my opinion. Al Harris and Atari Bigby are still out and Charles Woodsen may not play, giving the Martz offense a weakness to capitalize on. The Bears are at home, and they showed last week that they can not only withstand a heavy 3-4 blitz but succeed against one. The Packers are also without perennial 1,000 yard rusher Ryan Grant, giving the Bears the opportunity to zero in on the pass.
That doesn't mean it'll be easy. The receiving corps is solid and will definitely give this secondary some problems. Lance Briggs also might not play, and with him, Nick Roach, and Brian Iwuh all looking at possibly being sidelined there could be some significant holes in the linebacking corps. Still, the Green bay line is weak and Julius Peppers should have ample opportunity to get to Rodgers. It will be a close one, but in the end I think the Bears can pull it out. Plus, the Packers were ranked first in the power rankings I go by. They continue to be an overrated team in my opinion and I would love to see the Bears knock them off the pedestal so many experts have built for them. This is my upset of the week.
Prediction: Bears
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
NFL Week Two Thoughts
I always say week two is the hardest to predict, it's when you really start to learn things about different teams and who they are. It was a tumultuous week two for me, but I think I got a better handle on most teams, with a few exceptions. There are some teams that continue to confound me (San Francisco), but it was at least entertaining. Here are my thoughts:
Green Bay Packers def. Buffalo Bills
No surprise here, Green Bay is good and Buffalo is bad.
Cincinnati Bengals def. Baltimore Ravens
This was a surprise for me. Between the way the Bengals' defense played last week and the way the Ravens played against the Jets last week I thought this was a forgone conclusion. Cincinnati might give me some problems this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Carolina Panthers
Another big surprise for me. I thought the Panthers played well against the Giants and I didn't expect the Bucs to do this well. I'm not ready to bump them up past third in the division at very best, but I will give them more respect going forward.
Kansas City Chiefs def. Cleveland Browns
I'm not very surprised by KC's performance, I knew they'd be decent this year. I am surprised by the Browns' performance in a home stand, they are in trouble this year even by their standards. To have two straight games where they have a chance at winning and just disappearing in the second half, I have to blame coaching. I've been down on Mangini since the beginning, and if I were heading this organization I'd stick Holmgren back on the sideline sooner rather than later.
Pittsburgh Steelers def. Tennessee Titans
No more doubting the Steelers, they are good. They will be in the playoffs this year, guaranteed. This defense is performing at an amazing level and winning games with backup quarterbacks, and expect Rashard Mendenhall to be mentioned up there with the better backs in this league after this season. Things are looking up for them.
Chicago Bears def. Dallas Cowboys
I love to say I told you so, especially with upsets, and ESPECIALLY when I'm picking my Bears. It was an impressive win, and it was a definitive win. Dallas played well, I wouldn't panic if I were a fan just yet, though if they do make the playoffs they might not go far. Back to the Bears, next week will be a real test for this team as Rodgers can play well even under pressure, I've still got my hopes up though.
Atlanta Falcons def. Arizona Cardinals
I was a bit surprised at just how definitive this was for the Falcons, not sure if they're better than I thought or if the Cardinals are worse. Still, I think I have a decent handle on these two teams.
Philadelphia Eagles def. Detroit Lions
Again, I was a little surprised at how close this was, but Detroit is good. They will pick up wins this year, guaranteed.
Miami Dolphins def. Minnesota Vikings
Miami has really impressed me. Chad Henne aside, they have a tremendous defense. I wasn't sure how impressed I should have been with them after week one, now I know they are for real. The Vikings, they'll get better but it might be too little too late.
Denver Broncos def. Seattle Seahawks
The Broncos impressed, especially Kyle Orton who had a great outing and isn't being held back as much by the absence of Brandon Marshall as I had thought. I still think they're a longshot to make the playoffs, but impressive nonetheless. The Seahawks are one of the teams giving me fits, I can't figure out exactly how good they are.
Oakland Raiders def. St. Louis Rams
Oakland is probably worse than I thought they were, and Jason Campbell being benched in the second game is surprising. They'll be an interesting team to watch as the season plays out. Still, a win is a win is a win.
Houston Texans def. Washington Redskins
Move over Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and the Texans are the real deal. Redskins looked good as well, better than I thought they looked against Dallas. These two teams could make waves, but the Texans are the ones who will definitely be a force in December.
New York Jets def. New England Patriots
People were ready to write the Jets off after week one, and I told them not so fast. I stand by that, they are going to be good and the East is going to be tough as nails this year.
San Diego Chargers def. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars are worse than I thought, Chargers are better. Chargers can still be beat by a good QB and run game, though.
Indianapolis Colts def. New York Giants
I expected the Colts to win, but I didn't expect it to be that one-sided. Perry Fewell looked very confused by the run, Giants fans better hope he doesn't go with one linebacker against every good QB he has to face this year, if he does teams will do what the Colts did and just run all over him. They ran over the Giants because Fewell let them, though, Giants fans shouldn't read too much into the rushing stats and neither should the Colts.
New Orleans Saints def. San Francisco 49ers
The game was decided by a field goal? Really? To be fair, the Niners I had been predicting all pre-season showed up, but was it an aberration or a sign of things to come? Were the Niners that good or was my praise of the Saints last week premature? I guess we'll have to wait to find out.
Green Bay Packers def. Buffalo Bills
No surprise here, Green Bay is good and Buffalo is bad.
Cincinnati Bengals def. Baltimore Ravens
This was a surprise for me. Between the way the Bengals' defense played last week and the way the Ravens played against the Jets last week I thought this was a forgone conclusion. Cincinnati might give me some problems this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Carolina Panthers
Another big surprise for me. I thought the Panthers played well against the Giants and I didn't expect the Bucs to do this well. I'm not ready to bump them up past third in the division at very best, but I will give them more respect going forward.
Kansas City Chiefs def. Cleveland Browns
I'm not very surprised by KC's performance, I knew they'd be decent this year. I am surprised by the Browns' performance in a home stand, they are in trouble this year even by their standards. To have two straight games where they have a chance at winning and just disappearing in the second half, I have to blame coaching. I've been down on Mangini since the beginning, and if I were heading this organization I'd stick Holmgren back on the sideline sooner rather than later.
Pittsburgh Steelers def. Tennessee Titans
No more doubting the Steelers, they are good. They will be in the playoffs this year, guaranteed. This defense is performing at an amazing level and winning games with backup quarterbacks, and expect Rashard Mendenhall to be mentioned up there with the better backs in this league after this season. Things are looking up for them.
Chicago Bears def. Dallas Cowboys
I love to say I told you so, especially with upsets, and ESPECIALLY when I'm picking my Bears. It was an impressive win, and it was a definitive win. Dallas played well, I wouldn't panic if I were a fan just yet, though if they do make the playoffs they might not go far. Back to the Bears, next week will be a real test for this team as Rodgers can play well even under pressure, I've still got my hopes up though.
Atlanta Falcons def. Arizona Cardinals
I was a bit surprised at just how definitive this was for the Falcons, not sure if they're better than I thought or if the Cardinals are worse. Still, I think I have a decent handle on these two teams.
Philadelphia Eagles def. Detroit Lions
Again, I was a little surprised at how close this was, but Detroit is good. They will pick up wins this year, guaranteed.
Miami Dolphins def. Minnesota Vikings
Miami has really impressed me. Chad Henne aside, they have a tremendous defense. I wasn't sure how impressed I should have been with them after week one, now I know they are for real. The Vikings, they'll get better but it might be too little too late.
Denver Broncos def. Seattle Seahawks
The Broncos impressed, especially Kyle Orton who had a great outing and isn't being held back as much by the absence of Brandon Marshall as I had thought. I still think they're a longshot to make the playoffs, but impressive nonetheless. The Seahawks are one of the teams giving me fits, I can't figure out exactly how good they are.
Oakland Raiders def. St. Louis Rams
Oakland is probably worse than I thought they were, and Jason Campbell being benched in the second game is surprising. They'll be an interesting team to watch as the season plays out. Still, a win is a win is a win.
Houston Texans def. Washington Redskins
Move over Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and the Texans are the real deal. Redskins looked good as well, better than I thought they looked against Dallas. These two teams could make waves, but the Texans are the ones who will definitely be a force in December.
New York Jets def. New England Patriots
People were ready to write the Jets off after week one, and I told them not so fast. I stand by that, they are going to be good and the East is going to be tough as nails this year.
San Diego Chargers def. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars are worse than I thought, Chargers are better. Chargers can still be beat by a good QB and run game, though.
Indianapolis Colts def. New York Giants
I expected the Colts to win, but I didn't expect it to be that one-sided. Perry Fewell looked very confused by the run, Giants fans better hope he doesn't go with one linebacker against every good QB he has to face this year, if he does teams will do what the Colts did and just run all over him. They ran over the Giants because Fewell let them, though, Giants fans shouldn't read too much into the rushing stats and neither should the Colts.
New Orleans Saints def. San Francisco 49ers
The game was decided by a field goal? Really? To be fair, the Niners I had been predicting all pre-season showed up, but was it an aberration or a sign of things to come? Were the Niners that good or was my praise of the Saints last week premature? I guess we'll have to wait to find out.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
NFL Week Two Predictions
Buffalo Bills @ Green Bay Packers
Do you really have to ask? Two down, fourteen to go.
Prediction: Packers
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
I'm tempted to pick the Bengals for a comeback at home, but their stock really dropped in my eyes and the Ravens are just too good.
Prediction: Ravens
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
The Panthers put up a decent fight against the Giants. Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams are still weapons, and Tampa barely held the Browns back from winning. No way the cats lose at home to a beatable division rival.
Prediction: Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
No one expects much from either of these teams this year, and they might not make the playoffs but they can still put on a good show. This game is going down to the wire and it's my sleeper of the week, and I think the Browns can pull this one out.
Prediction: Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
This is a tough call, the Steelers have a tough run defense and have played well against Chris Johnson in the past, but then again betting against him and at home is never a smart move. I'll go with the Titans in what could turn out to be a battle of the backs.
Prediction: Titans
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys
I know everyone still expects a lot from the Cowboys, and that the reverse holds true for the Bears. I know Dallas has a tremendous run game, and that their receiving corps is solid. I still think the Bears have a chance to win this game, call it wishful thinking if you like. Their line looked horrible against the Redskins, and though Marc Colombo replaces Alex Barron, I don't know if he and Doug Free can hold their own against Julius Peppers. Chicago's run defense looked amazing against the Lions and I expect the Cowboys to have problems running, and they put up a ton of yards on offense which is another performance I expect to be repeated. If anything can save the Cowboys it's Romo and his receivers, but I have a sneaking suspicion the Bears are able to pull off my upset of the week.
Prediction: Bears
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons
The Cardinals struggled to put away one of the worst teams in the NFL and a rookie passer last week. Matt Ryan passed for a nice chunk of yards against a top flight defense. The Falcons pull this one out.
Prediction: Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions
A couple of weeks ago I might have given this one to the Lions, I really don't trust Kevin Kolb. However, the Eagles rushed and passed over the Green Bay Packers when Vick was in last week, I think they can do the same to the Lions.
Prediction: Eagles
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
Chad Henne was less than convincing in the Dolphins' win against the Bills. Their rushing attack doesn't seem as potent either, though their defense looks sharp. Still, they don't seem to be working totally in sync as a team and the Vikings are looking to avenge a loss to the Saints, and they'll be tough for the Dolphins to beat at home.
Prediction: Vikings
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
More surprising than the 49ers losing last week was the Seahawks losing, perhaps they won't be desperate for Housh after all. I think they were pretty convincing and showed up as a team to keep an eye on this year. With injuries still haunting the Broncos on defense, I think the birds pull this one out.
Prediction: Seahawks
St. Louis Rams @ Oakland Raiders
Intriguing matchup. Both teams played well last week in losses, but I think Oakland has the edge despite facing Steven Jackson. Expect their passing attack to beat a weak Rams' secondary and the Raiders to pull this one out.
Prediction: Raiders
Houston Texans @ Washington Redskins
There have been a lot of bright spots for the Texans in just one game. One of those bright spots is defense, another a rejuvenated running game, and finally their perennially successful passing attack. Dallas had none of those things in their loss to the Redskins, and I don't see Washington squeaking past Houston the way they did past Dallas.
Prediction: Texans
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
I was thinking of just choosing the Patriots hands down, but I don't think the Jets defense can be counted out just yet. Darrelle Revis is still back there and he knows how to shut down receivers. New England's line did play very well against the Bengals, but they face a stiffer challenge this week. They might end up splitting the season series, but at home I'll take the Jets.
Prediction: Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers
I said San Diego would have problems against the run this season, so far it's holding true. If they could get beat by Matt Cassel and Jamaal Charles then they can get beat by Maurice Jones-Drew and David Garrard.
Prediction: Jaguars
New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts
It's the Manning Bowl! I'm very tempted to go with the younger Manning after an impressive showing against Carolina, but then again it is only Carolina. The Giants will be a top-tier offense this year, but they rely on interceptions and Peyton doesn't throw a lot of those against anyone. Eli will also have more problems against the Colts' offense, and the big weakness for the Giants will continue to be the running game. Still, it should be an amazing game and my game of the week.
Prediction: Colts
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
The Niners simply looked bad during their last outing. The run game and defense were especially suspect, and though Alex Smith had a lot of yards he had trouble getting in the end zone. None of that should improve against New Orleans. They're good against the run, they generate sacks and interceptions, and they have an explosive offense. I see no way the Niners can pull this one off.
Prediction: Saints
Do you really have to ask? Two down, fourteen to go.
Prediction: Packers
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
I'm tempted to pick the Bengals for a comeback at home, but their stock really dropped in my eyes and the Ravens are just too good.
Prediction: Ravens
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
The Panthers put up a decent fight against the Giants. Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams are still weapons, and Tampa barely held the Browns back from winning. No way the cats lose at home to a beatable division rival.
Prediction: Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
No one expects much from either of these teams this year, and they might not make the playoffs but they can still put on a good show. This game is going down to the wire and it's my sleeper of the week, and I think the Browns can pull this one out.
Prediction: Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
This is a tough call, the Steelers have a tough run defense and have played well against Chris Johnson in the past, but then again betting against him and at home is never a smart move. I'll go with the Titans in what could turn out to be a battle of the backs.
Prediction: Titans
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys
I know everyone still expects a lot from the Cowboys, and that the reverse holds true for the Bears. I know Dallas has a tremendous run game, and that their receiving corps is solid. I still think the Bears have a chance to win this game, call it wishful thinking if you like. Their line looked horrible against the Redskins, and though Marc Colombo replaces Alex Barron, I don't know if he and Doug Free can hold their own against Julius Peppers. Chicago's run defense looked amazing against the Lions and I expect the Cowboys to have problems running, and they put up a ton of yards on offense which is another performance I expect to be repeated. If anything can save the Cowboys it's Romo and his receivers, but I have a sneaking suspicion the Bears are able to pull off my upset of the week.
Prediction: Bears
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons
The Cardinals struggled to put away one of the worst teams in the NFL and a rookie passer last week. Matt Ryan passed for a nice chunk of yards against a top flight defense. The Falcons pull this one out.
Prediction: Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions
A couple of weeks ago I might have given this one to the Lions, I really don't trust Kevin Kolb. However, the Eagles rushed and passed over the Green Bay Packers when Vick was in last week, I think they can do the same to the Lions.
Prediction: Eagles
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
Chad Henne was less than convincing in the Dolphins' win against the Bills. Their rushing attack doesn't seem as potent either, though their defense looks sharp. Still, they don't seem to be working totally in sync as a team and the Vikings are looking to avenge a loss to the Saints, and they'll be tough for the Dolphins to beat at home.
Prediction: Vikings
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
More surprising than the 49ers losing last week was the Seahawks losing, perhaps they won't be desperate for Housh after all. I think they were pretty convincing and showed up as a team to keep an eye on this year. With injuries still haunting the Broncos on defense, I think the birds pull this one out.
Prediction: Seahawks
St. Louis Rams @ Oakland Raiders
Intriguing matchup. Both teams played well last week in losses, but I think Oakland has the edge despite facing Steven Jackson. Expect their passing attack to beat a weak Rams' secondary and the Raiders to pull this one out.
Prediction: Raiders
Houston Texans @ Washington Redskins
There have been a lot of bright spots for the Texans in just one game. One of those bright spots is defense, another a rejuvenated running game, and finally their perennially successful passing attack. Dallas had none of those things in their loss to the Redskins, and I don't see Washington squeaking past Houston the way they did past Dallas.
Prediction: Texans
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
I was thinking of just choosing the Patriots hands down, but I don't think the Jets defense can be counted out just yet. Darrelle Revis is still back there and he knows how to shut down receivers. New England's line did play very well against the Bengals, but they face a stiffer challenge this week. They might end up splitting the season series, but at home I'll take the Jets.
Prediction: Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers
I said San Diego would have problems against the run this season, so far it's holding true. If they could get beat by Matt Cassel and Jamaal Charles then they can get beat by Maurice Jones-Drew and David Garrard.
Prediction: Jaguars
New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts
It's the Manning Bowl! I'm very tempted to go with the younger Manning after an impressive showing against Carolina, but then again it is only Carolina. The Giants will be a top-tier offense this year, but they rely on interceptions and Peyton doesn't throw a lot of those against anyone. Eli will also have more problems against the Colts' offense, and the big weakness for the Giants will continue to be the running game. Still, it should be an amazing game and my game of the week.
Prediction: Colts
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
The Niners simply looked bad during their last outing. The run game and defense were especially suspect, and though Alex Smith had a lot of yards he had trouble getting in the end zone. None of that should improve against New Orleans. They're good against the run, they generate sacks and interceptions, and they have an explosive offense. I see no way the Niners can pull this one off.
Prediction: Saints
Saturday, September 18, 2010
NFL Week One Thoughts
Week one has come and gone with plenty of surprises. Some surprises I called, some surprises baffled even me, and some no one expected. I'll go through my picks and the outcomes for the first week of NFL ball.
New Orleans Saints def. Minnesota Vikings
I said the Saints would be the ones with the hangover, I was dead wrong. The defending champs were the ones coming out with something to prove, and anyone who doubts that this is a complete team is frankly insane. I had them going 14-2 when I thought Minnesota was going to beat them, and after week one I have no doubt that they'll take their division and get a first round bye this year. Minnesota fans shouldn't be too concerned, the Saints played a tremendous game, they'll only have to worry if the Vikings start dropping divisional games, which is a distinct possibility.
Jacksonville Jaguars def. Denver Broncos
I love to say I told you so, especially with my upsets. The win wasn't as convincing as I might have thought, though the weak spots in that offense definitely showed. 295 yards passing is definitely a concern for a Jaguars team in a pass-heavy division, though holding the Broncos' rushing game to under 100 yards is promising. Very disturbing for them, though, is the fact that they had three sacks and still managed to give up so many passing yards. This looks like the beginning of a long year for the Broncos, though, as they face much tougher defenses in the weeks to come.
Tennessee Titans def. Oakland Raiders
Another prediction I'm pretty proud of. As I said, the Raiders did pretty well, limiting the Titans' passing game and gaining 180 yards through the air. They couldn't stop Chris Johnson, though, who gained almost 150 yards rushing and set the pace for another 2,000 yards season. Don't worry Raiders fans, not every team has a back like that.
New England Patriots def. Cincinnati Bengals
I am handed my first defeat, but I also said Brady could be the game changer. Frankly, the Bengals disappointed me, if this is what we can expect from them then I see them as no better than third in the division. I was a little wary of their secondary, but frankly their entire defense sucked it up laying a goose egg in the sack column. I still think the Patriots are who I thought they were going into the season, the Bengals will show if they can really compete when they face their division rivals next week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Cleveland Browns
This is one of the misses I'm a little peeved about, I thought Cleveland was ready to make a statement and they didn't make much effort last week. Jake Delhomme passed for 227 yards, they held Cadillac Williams to 75 yards, but their defense still couldn't stop the second year QB from going up on them. If I were a Browns fan I'd be starting the campaign to oust Mangini now, only I'm not a Browns fan and I started my campaign to oust him early last year. Either way, I think his time is short.
Houston Texans def. Indianapolis Colts
I stand corrected here, the Texans beat the Colts in week one and if they play that way the rest of the season they could sweep Indy for the first time in franchise history. Peyton Manning keeps this team in contention, but the Colts are no longer the team to beat in this division.
Chicago Bears def. Detroit Lions
Ooooh, controversy. First a little analysis, kudos to the Lions on their rush defense and pass rush, those are both bright spots. My praise of them ends there, though. Nate Burleson is going to make less of a difference than I thought if this game is any indication. The line got killed by the Bears' pass rush, the receivers weren't that outstanding, and the offense looks to be an area of concern for this team yet again. People are also being to hard on the Bears, who were first in the league in total offense, second in passing offense, second in total defense, and first in rush defense. Julius Peppers looked great, and the linebackers provided excellent support. There are two areas of concern, one is the red zone offense, that has to get better. Two, the corners didn't look like they can play at an elite level. I'm especially suspicious of Zack Bowman, who was tasked with guarding Calvin Johnson on the controversial call and whom I've been saying isn't up to the task of guarding elite receivers for a long time now.
As to the call, let me first say to the Lions fans who are whining that the call wouldn't have even mattered had Lovie decided to kick the field goal instead of going for it on fourth and one. The Lions also had a call go their way when a Jahvid Best play was ruled a touchdown, and for the life of me I can't see what the refs were seeing to call it that way. It's not like the catch was the only factor in the Lions losing. Second, the call was right, Johnson grabbed the ball, got to the ground, and before he was up let go of the ball, that counts as the process of the catch. Now I do think the rule is incorrect, that should be a touchdown pass, but according to the rulebook it is not. Blame the rules, not the call. Kudos to coach Jim Schwartz for knowing as much and not making excuses, perhaps William Ford should take a page from his book. The owner's tirade this week was frankly embarrassing, someone with such a stake in the league should learn some better decorum. Again, I look forward to the rule being changed or clarified in the offseason, but the right call was made on Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers def. Atlanta Falcons
I knew Atlanta was overrated, I just didn't know how much. I knew the Steelers team was good, I just didn't know how good. Rashard Mendenhall and the defense made up for the lack of Ben Roethlisberger, though they could face a tougher challenge when they travel to Tennessee and have to face Chris Johnson. The Falcons, on the other hand, could get back on track. Matt Ryan had a good game passing, and Arizona got burned by rookie passer Sam Bradford last week, the matchup should favor the Falcons.
Miami Dolphins def. Buffalo Bills
One down, fifteen to go. Honestly, I was a little surprised it was as close as it was. Brandon Marshall only had 53 receiving yards, the Dolphins only had 130 rushing yards (I know, ONLY 130, but it's the Bills). I'm starting to lose a little faith in Miami, it'll be interesting to see how they stack up against the Vikings next week.
New York Giants def. Carolina Panthers
Again, I'm surprised at some of the numbers. I didn't think the Giants were going to give up that many points, but they did hold them to 140 passing yards and registered four sacks and three interceptions. Not the statement game you're looking for, but still a very solid performance. What surprised me most was Eli Manning's performance, we'll see if he can repeat it against the Colts.
Green Bay Packers def. Philadelphia Eagles
Yet again, another win that was closer than expected. Maybe the Packers aren't as good as everybody says, they did allow Michael Vick to rack up 278 yards of total offense, though they were able to hold in the end. Speaking of Vick, I truly believe he should be the starter when Kolb returns, though that doesn't look like it will happen. Rodgers was impressive, but we'll see if teams can't find ways to control him, especially without the presence of Ryan Grant.
Arizona Cardinals def. St. Louis Rams
I'm not sure if I should be impressed by the Rams or disappointed in the Cardinals. Both teams look to have problems at this point, I think they could be in for long years.
Seattle Seahawks def. San Francisco 49ers
I knew Seattle was going to be good, I just didn't know how good. I think you have to give the Hawks credit, they he;d Frank Gore in check and that proved to be the difference in the game. I don't think Niners fans should panic just yet, Alex Smith put up some decent yards and the defense played well. They need to play as a balanced team, though, and Seattle just showed the entire league the formula for beating them. At any rate, it could be a dogfight between these two teams for the Division Title.
Washington Redskins def. Dallas Cowboys
I love to say I told you so. I won't lie, the Cowboys are in trouble. Washington's offense looked lethargic, they have some receiver problems, and Haynesworth still seems to be a distraction. Still, the Redskins were able to beat Dallas on defense and that line does not look like it can take this team deep in the playoffs. Marc Colombo will start against the Bears, and how he performs against Julius Peppers will determine if he and Doug Free can hold their own or if Barron was the only weak link in the chain against Washington.
Baltimore Ravens def. New York Jets
I said ti would be a good defensive game, it was. People saying the Jets are out of it this early are crazy, the Ravens played an excellent game and the Jets were right there with them. They won't have an easy time against New England this week, but they won't be pushovers either.
Kansas City Chiefs def. San Diego Chargers
Another big surprise, but I said that the Chiefs would run all over the Bolts. perhaps the bigger surprise is that Phillip Rivers passed for almost 300 yards and the Chargers were still held to 14 points, or that the Chiefs held the Chargers' run game to only 109 yards. My opinion on the Chiefs hasn't changed, my opinion on the Chargers has.
New Orleans Saints def. Minnesota Vikings
I said the Saints would be the ones with the hangover, I was dead wrong. The defending champs were the ones coming out with something to prove, and anyone who doubts that this is a complete team is frankly insane. I had them going 14-2 when I thought Minnesota was going to beat them, and after week one I have no doubt that they'll take their division and get a first round bye this year. Minnesota fans shouldn't be too concerned, the Saints played a tremendous game, they'll only have to worry if the Vikings start dropping divisional games, which is a distinct possibility.
Jacksonville Jaguars def. Denver Broncos
I love to say I told you so, especially with my upsets. The win wasn't as convincing as I might have thought, though the weak spots in that offense definitely showed. 295 yards passing is definitely a concern for a Jaguars team in a pass-heavy division, though holding the Broncos' rushing game to under 100 yards is promising. Very disturbing for them, though, is the fact that they had three sacks and still managed to give up so many passing yards. This looks like the beginning of a long year for the Broncos, though, as they face much tougher defenses in the weeks to come.
Tennessee Titans def. Oakland Raiders
Another prediction I'm pretty proud of. As I said, the Raiders did pretty well, limiting the Titans' passing game and gaining 180 yards through the air. They couldn't stop Chris Johnson, though, who gained almost 150 yards rushing and set the pace for another 2,000 yards season. Don't worry Raiders fans, not every team has a back like that.
New England Patriots def. Cincinnati Bengals
I am handed my first defeat, but I also said Brady could be the game changer. Frankly, the Bengals disappointed me, if this is what we can expect from them then I see them as no better than third in the division. I was a little wary of their secondary, but frankly their entire defense sucked it up laying a goose egg in the sack column. I still think the Patriots are who I thought they were going into the season, the Bengals will show if they can really compete when they face their division rivals next week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Cleveland Browns
This is one of the misses I'm a little peeved about, I thought Cleveland was ready to make a statement and they didn't make much effort last week. Jake Delhomme passed for 227 yards, they held Cadillac Williams to 75 yards, but their defense still couldn't stop the second year QB from going up on them. If I were a Browns fan I'd be starting the campaign to oust Mangini now, only I'm not a Browns fan and I started my campaign to oust him early last year. Either way, I think his time is short.
Houston Texans def. Indianapolis Colts
I stand corrected here, the Texans beat the Colts in week one and if they play that way the rest of the season they could sweep Indy for the first time in franchise history. Peyton Manning keeps this team in contention, but the Colts are no longer the team to beat in this division.
Chicago Bears def. Detroit Lions
Ooooh, controversy. First a little analysis, kudos to the Lions on their rush defense and pass rush, those are both bright spots. My praise of them ends there, though. Nate Burleson is going to make less of a difference than I thought if this game is any indication. The line got killed by the Bears' pass rush, the receivers weren't that outstanding, and the offense looks to be an area of concern for this team yet again. People are also being to hard on the Bears, who were first in the league in total offense, second in passing offense, second in total defense, and first in rush defense. Julius Peppers looked great, and the linebackers provided excellent support. There are two areas of concern, one is the red zone offense, that has to get better. Two, the corners didn't look like they can play at an elite level. I'm especially suspicious of Zack Bowman, who was tasked with guarding Calvin Johnson on the controversial call and whom I've been saying isn't up to the task of guarding elite receivers for a long time now.
As to the call, let me first say to the Lions fans who are whining that the call wouldn't have even mattered had Lovie decided to kick the field goal instead of going for it on fourth and one. The Lions also had a call go their way when a Jahvid Best play was ruled a touchdown, and for the life of me I can't see what the refs were seeing to call it that way. It's not like the catch was the only factor in the Lions losing. Second, the call was right, Johnson grabbed the ball, got to the ground, and before he was up let go of the ball, that counts as the process of the catch. Now I do think the rule is incorrect, that should be a touchdown pass, but according to the rulebook it is not. Blame the rules, not the call. Kudos to coach Jim Schwartz for knowing as much and not making excuses, perhaps William Ford should take a page from his book. The owner's tirade this week was frankly embarrassing, someone with such a stake in the league should learn some better decorum. Again, I look forward to the rule being changed or clarified in the offseason, but the right call was made on Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers def. Atlanta Falcons
I knew Atlanta was overrated, I just didn't know how much. I knew the Steelers team was good, I just didn't know how good. Rashard Mendenhall and the defense made up for the lack of Ben Roethlisberger, though they could face a tougher challenge when they travel to Tennessee and have to face Chris Johnson. The Falcons, on the other hand, could get back on track. Matt Ryan had a good game passing, and Arizona got burned by rookie passer Sam Bradford last week, the matchup should favor the Falcons.
Miami Dolphins def. Buffalo Bills
One down, fifteen to go. Honestly, I was a little surprised it was as close as it was. Brandon Marshall only had 53 receiving yards, the Dolphins only had 130 rushing yards (I know, ONLY 130, but it's the Bills). I'm starting to lose a little faith in Miami, it'll be interesting to see how they stack up against the Vikings next week.
New York Giants def. Carolina Panthers
Again, I'm surprised at some of the numbers. I didn't think the Giants were going to give up that many points, but they did hold them to 140 passing yards and registered four sacks and three interceptions. Not the statement game you're looking for, but still a very solid performance. What surprised me most was Eli Manning's performance, we'll see if he can repeat it against the Colts.
Green Bay Packers def. Philadelphia Eagles
Yet again, another win that was closer than expected. Maybe the Packers aren't as good as everybody says, they did allow Michael Vick to rack up 278 yards of total offense, though they were able to hold in the end. Speaking of Vick, I truly believe he should be the starter when Kolb returns, though that doesn't look like it will happen. Rodgers was impressive, but we'll see if teams can't find ways to control him, especially without the presence of Ryan Grant.
Arizona Cardinals def. St. Louis Rams
I'm not sure if I should be impressed by the Rams or disappointed in the Cardinals. Both teams look to have problems at this point, I think they could be in for long years.
Seattle Seahawks def. San Francisco 49ers
I knew Seattle was going to be good, I just didn't know how good. I think you have to give the Hawks credit, they he;d Frank Gore in check and that proved to be the difference in the game. I don't think Niners fans should panic just yet, Alex Smith put up some decent yards and the defense played well. They need to play as a balanced team, though, and Seattle just showed the entire league the formula for beating them. At any rate, it could be a dogfight between these two teams for the Division Title.
Washington Redskins def. Dallas Cowboys
I love to say I told you so. I won't lie, the Cowboys are in trouble. Washington's offense looked lethargic, they have some receiver problems, and Haynesworth still seems to be a distraction. Still, the Redskins were able to beat Dallas on defense and that line does not look like it can take this team deep in the playoffs. Marc Colombo will start against the Bears, and how he performs against Julius Peppers will determine if he and Doug Free can hold their own or if Barron was the only weak link in the chain against Washington.
Baltimore Ravens def. New York Jets
I said ti would be a good defensive game, it was. People saying the Jets are out of it this early are crazy, the Ravens played an excellent game and the Jets were right there with them. They won't have an easy time against New England this week, but they won't be pushovers either.
Kansas City Chiefs def. San Diego Chargers
Another big surprise, but I said that the Chiefs would run all over the Bolts. perhaps the bigger surprise is that Phillip Rivers passed for almost 300 yards and the Chargers were still held to 14 points, or that the Chiefs held the Chargers' run game to only 109 yards. My opinion on the Chiefs hasn't changed, my opinion on the Chargers has.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
NFL Week One Predictions
Football is finally here!!! And I'm bringing you some primo picks, almost 63% last season. This is the point in the season when I start throwing out less disclaimers, but I'll have one last disclaimer for good measure, many things change during the course of the season. Teams that were predicted to be good turn out to stink, and perennial losers surprise almost everyone. Usually which teams are going to buck the trends can be rooted out after week one, though, so although my predictions might be shaky this week, they'll probably even out fairly fast. I think I've got a good sense of where the games are headed, though, so without any further adieu, my picks for week one of the 2010 NFL season:
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
This one was tough for me. Both teams are looking good, both have high-powered offenses, and both look to do some significant damage this year. I have to admit I was leaning towards the Saints, I think their pass rush will be good this year and their secondary is better than Minnesota's. I'm going with intangibles on this one, though. I think New Orleans will have a slight Superbowl hangover and the Vikes are looking to avenge their loss in the NFC Championship game.
Prediction: Vikings
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars
This is my upset of the week. I was kind of down on the Broncos before they started losing stars to injury, without some key names on defense I think they'll do no better than third in the division. Jacksonville is an overlooked team, they have Maurice Jones-Drew, David Garrard, Aaron Kampman, and they're a hungry team. At home, to open the season, against a banged-up Broncos run defense, I'm taking Jacksonville.
Prediction: Jaguars
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
I think the Raiders will do well this season, a loss on opening day won't set them back that much. Jason Campbell is starting to mesh with his receivers, but the defense worries me. I think they will get better, but will sputter against 2k rusher Chris Johnson in the first week. Furthermore, I don't think Oakland's own run game will be that effective, and Tennessee starts the season out on the right foot.
Prediction: Titans
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
The Patriots will be good this season, but so will the Bengals. Ced Benson will come out running with a vengeance the way he did last season, and an otherwise solid Patriots run defense will have problems. New England, on the other hand, will have trouble getting their own run game going against a solid Bengals' defense. The game changer could be which quarterback performs better and I think Brady could pull out a win, but I still have more faith in the Bengals here.
Prediction: Bengals
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The difference in this game? Defense. The Browns are good at generating sacks and will create problems for young QB Josh Freeman. Delhomme will be solid in week one, we'll have to wait to see how he holds up over the rest of the season. Even more than the Browns' defense, though, is the Bucs lack of one. I think the Browns run all over them, and start an otherwise painful season out on a positive note.
Prediction: Browns
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
I think the Texans will win a game against the Colts, but not in week one. I was tempted by homefield advantage to take them, but I say Peyton and crew come out of the gates running. You don't beat Indy in week one, unless you're da Bears of course, and this year will be no exception.
Prediction: Colts
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
I was tempted to take the Lions, a young team with a lot to prove typically shines early. Still, with protection problems and Chicago picking up Julius Peppers I say Matthew Stafford has one of his longer games of the season and it costs the Lions. Jay Cutler, on the other hand, will shine and lead the Bears to victory.
Prediction: Bears
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
All season long the analysts have been talking up Atlanta, then when they have the chance to pick them against a Steelers' team missing its star QB they wimp out. Atlanta's not taking the division this year, but they take an easy win against an incomplete Steelers' team.
Prediction: Falcons
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
I had Buffalo going 0-16 in my regular season predictions. That outlook might change during the season, but they're still not going to beat division rival Miami in week one. Miami runs and passes all over them, Trent Edwards struggles early, and C.J. Spiller learns what its like running behind the most lethargic line in the NFL.
Prediction: Dolphins
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
The Panthers are a young team missing their star pass rusher. The Giants are a balanced team in terms of age with a new defensive coordinator and a great outlook. Steve Smith gets shut down by Perry Fewell, Eli Manning gets good protection and has a good game, and the Giants start out the season with an easy win.
Prediction: Giants
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Packers have a good outlook going into 2010 with an explosive defense and quarterback. The Eagles' defense has been slumping recently and they have a new QB behind center. Injuries or no, Kolb isn't going to carve up the Pack's secondary. Rodgers, on the other hand, could do some damage in the Eagles'.
Prediction: Packers
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
The Rams have problems. Anderson might not be the best quarterback ever, but he should be good enough to get enough points to beat the Rams. The Cards might not be able to stop Steven Jackson, but they'll wreak havoc with rookie QB Sam Bradford.
Prediction: Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Lotta division games in week one. The Niners are looking good this season, and I don't know that even Matt Hasslebeck will be able to carve them up. Their offense could get one-dimensional if teams focus in on Alex Smith, but I expect them to be able to maintain balance against Seattle.
Prediction: 49ers
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Dallas has some issues and the Redskins are eager to prove what they can do. More importantly, Washington matches up well. The Cowboys have secondary issues, McNabb can exploit that. The Cowboys have line issues, Orakpo can exploit that. At home, I have to take the Skins.
Prediction: Redskins
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
This is going to be an amazing game, so much so that it gets my game of the week honors. Both teams have an amazing defense, both teams can thrown the ball, both teams can run the ball. I think people are underestimating Baltimore's secondary, especially with Ken Hamlin back there. Revis might be shut-down, but I say between Rice, Boldin, and all the other playmakers the Ravens find a way to win.
Prediction: Ravens
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
I don't think the Chargers are as good as everyone makes them out to be. I don't think the Chiefs are as bad as everyone makes them out to be. The Chargers are especially weak against the run, I think the Chiefs will have an excellent run game this year. Still, I don't think they have what it takes to beat Phillip Rivers and company. The Chargers win this one, but the Chiefs make it interesting, which is why this game gets my pick for sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Chargers
There you have it, week one. Check back on Monday to see how right I was, and later next week for my week two picks.
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
This one was tough for me. Both teams are looking good, both have high-powered offenses, and both look to do some significant damage this year. I have to admit I was leaning towards the Saints, I think their pass rush will be good this year and their secondary is better than Minnesota's. I'm going with intangibles on this one, though. I think New Orleans will have a slight Superbowl hangover and the Vikes are looking to avenge their loss in the NFC Championship game.
Prediction: Vikings
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars
This is my upset of the week. I was kind of down on the Broncos before they started losing stars to injury, without some key names on defense I think they'll do no better than third in the division. Jacksonville is an overlooked team, they have Maurice Jones-Drew, David Garrard, Aaron Kampman, and they're a hungry team. At home, to open the season, against a banged-up Broncos run defense, I'm taking Jacksonville.
Prediction: Jaguars
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
I think the Raiders will do well this season, a loss on opening day won't set them back that much. Jason Campbell is starting to mesh with his receivers, but the defense worries me. I think they will get better, but will sputter against 2k rusher Chris Johnson in the first week. Furthermore, I don't think Oakland's own run game will be that effective, and Tennessee starts the season out on the right foot.
Prediction: Titans
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
The Patriots will be good this season, but so will the Bengals. Ced Benson will come out running with a vengeance the way he did last season, and an otherwise solid Patriots run defense will have problems. New England, on the other hand, will have trouble getting their own run game going against a solid Bengals' defense. The game changer could be which quarterback performs better and I think Brady could pull out a win, but I still have more faith in the Bengals here.
Prediction: Bengals
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The difference in this game? Defense. The Browns are good at generating sacks and will create problems for young QB Josh Freeman. Delhomme will be solid in week one, we'll have to wait to see how he holds up over the rest of the season. Even more than the Browns' defense, though, is the Bucs lack of one. I think the Browns run all over them, and start an otherwise painful season out on a positive note.
Prediction: Browns
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
I think the Texans will win a game against the Colts, but not in week one. I was tempted by homefield advantage to take them, but I say Peyton and crew come out of the gates running. You don't beat Indy in week one, unless you're da Bears of course, and this year will be no exception.
Prediction: Colts
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
I was tempted to take the Lions, a young team with a lot to prove typically shines early. Still, with protection problems and Chicago picking up Julius Peppers I say Matthew Stafford has one of his longer games of the season and it costs the Lions. Jay Cutler, on the other hand, will shine and lead the Bears to victory.
Prediction: Bears
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
All season long the analysts have been talking up Atlanta, then when they have the chance to pick them against a Steelers' team missing its star QB they wimp out. Atlanta's not taking the division this year, but they take an easy win against an incomplete Steelers' team.
Prediction: Falcons
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
I had Buffalo going 0-16 in my regular season predictions. That outlook might change during the season, but they're still not going to beat division rival Miami in week one. Miami runs and passes all over them, Trent Edwards struggles early, and C.J. Spiller learns what its like running behind the most lethargic line in the NFL.
Prediction: Dolphins
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
The Panthers are a young team missing their star pass rusher. The Giants are a balanced team in terms of age with a new defensive coordinator and a great outlook. Steve Smith gets shut down by Perry Fewell, Eli Manning gets good protection and has a good game, and the Giants start out the season with an easy win.
Prediction: Giants
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Packers have a good outlook going into 2010 with an explosive defense and quarterback. The Eagles' defense has been slumping recently and they have a new QB behind center. Injuries or no, Kolb isn't going to carve up the Pack's secondary. Rodgers, on the other hand, could do some damage in the Eagles'.
Prediction: Packers
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
The Rams have problems. Anderson might not be the best quarterback ever, but he should be good enough to get enough points to beat the Rams. The Cards might not be able to stop Steven Jackson, but they'll wreak havoc with rookie QB Sam Bradford.
Prediction: Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Lotta division games in week one. The Niners are looking good this season, and I don't know that even Matt Hasslebeck will be able to carve them up. Their offense could get one-dimensional if teams focus in on Alex Smith, but I expect them to be able to maintain balance against Seattle.
Prediction: 49ers
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Dallas has some issues and the Redskins are eager to prove what they can do. More importantly, Washington matches up well. The Cowboys have secondary issues, McNabb can exploit that. The Cowboys have line issues, Orakpo can exploit that. At home, I have to take the Skins.
Prediction: Redskins
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
This is going to be an amazing game, so much so that it gets my game of the week honors. Both teams have an amazing defense, both teams can thrown the ball, both teams can run the ball. I think people are underestimating Baltimore's secondary, especially with Ken Hamlin back there. Revis might be shut-down, but I say between Rice, Boldin, and all the other playmakers the Ravens find a way to win.
Prediction: Ravens
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
I don't think the Chargers are as good as everyone makes them out to be. I don't think the Chiefs are as bad as everyone makes them out to be. The Chargers are especially weak against the run, I think the Chiefs will have an excellent run game this year. Still, I don't think they have what it takes to beat Phillip Rivers and company. The Chargers win this one, but the Chiefs make it interesting, which is why this game gets my pick for sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Chargers
There you have it, week one. Check back on Monday to see how right I was, and later next week for my week two picks.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
2010 Predictions
Based on my previews, I went through the regular season NFL Schedule and saw how different teams matched up against each other. Even I was surprised by the records of some teams, and I don't in any way expect them to hold true throughout the entire season. Many things happen in an NFL season, and unexpected teams always step up. Still, here is the way I see the season panning out as a preliminary prediction:
NFC North NFC East NFC South NFC West
Vikings-10-6 Giants-14-2 Saints-14-2 49ers-3-13
Bears-9-7 Cowboys-10-6 Falcons-9-7 Cardinals-8-8
Packers-8-8 Redskins-8-8 Panthers-3-13 Seahawks-5-11
Lions-4-12 Eagles-3-13 Buccaneers-2-14 Rams-2-14
Division Seeding Wild Card
Saints Cowboys
Giants Bears
49ers
Cowboys
NFC Wild Card Round
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings-Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers-Chicago Bears
NFC Divisional Round
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints-New Orleans Saints
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants-New York Giants
NFC Championship Game
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints-New York Giants
AFC North AFC East AFC South AFC West
Ravens-13-3 Jets-14-2 Texans-12-4 Chargers-10-6
Bengals-11-5 Patriots-12-4 Colts-10-6 Raiders-9-7
Steelers-7-9 Dolphins8-8 Titans-7-9 Chiefs-4-12
Browns-5-11 Bills-0-16-3-13 Jaguars-5-11 Broncos-4-12
Division Seeding Wild Card
Jets Patriots
Ravens Bengals
Texans
Chargers
AFC Wild Card Round
New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers-San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans-Cincinnati Bengals
AFC Divisional Round
San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets-New York Jets
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens-Baltimore Ravens
AFC Championship Game
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets-Baltimore Ravens
Superbowl XLV
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants-Baltimore Ravens
NFC North NFC East NFC South NFC West
Vikings-10-6 Giants-14-2 Saints-14-2 49ers-3-13
Bears-9-7 Cowboys-10-6 Falcons-9-7 Cardinals-8-8
Packers-8-8 Redskins-8-8 Panthers-3-13 Seahawks-5-11
Lions-4-12 Eagles-3-13 Buccaneers-2-14 Rams-2-14
Division Seeding Wild Card
Saints Cowboys
Giants Bears
49ers
Cowboys
NFC Wild Card Round
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings-Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers-Chicago Bears
NFC Divisional Round
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints-New Orleans Saints
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants-New York Giants
NFC Championship Game
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints-New York Giants
AFC North AFC East AFC South AFC West
Ravens-13-3 Jets-14-2 Texans-12-4 Chargers-10-6
Bengals-11-5 Patriots-12-4 Colts-10-6 Raiders-9-7
Steelers-7-9 Dolphins8-8 Titans-7-9 Chiefs-4-12
Browns-5-11 Bills-0-16-3-13 Jaguars-5-11 Broncos-4-12
Division Seeding Wild Card
Jets Patriots
Ravens Bengals
Texans
Chargers
AFC Wild Card Round
New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers-San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans-Cincinnati Bengals
AFC Divisional Round
San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets-New York Jets
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens-Baltimore Ravens
AFC Championship Game
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets-Baltimore Ravens
Superbowl XLV
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants-Baltimore Ravens
NFC North Wrap-Up, Decade of Disaster
The football season is almost here! I'll be posting my week one predictions before kickoff tomorrow, and then the games kick off, but first I'm going to start my preview of the past decade of football. Before all that I'll finish my preview of NFL divisions by wrapping up the NFC North.
Early Predictions:
Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
There may be undue hype surrounding the Packers this year, but they are definitely a good team. Don't lock them in too early, though, as they play some tough teams and could be upset if they're not careful. I think the Bears will be an improved team regardless of if they make the playoffs or not, and right now I think there's enough evidence to at least hold out hope. The secondary and line present problems and they probably won't go deep if they do make it, but they could be good enough to pull out enough wins within the division in addition to some teams they match up well against. Minnesota is in a position to fall off I believe. Their defense is good, but the teams they face will know how to exploit them, and given performances against the Bears and 49ers last season I believe they are vulnerable. Detroit will get better, but not by much. I expect about four wins from them this season.
On to my retrospective on the past decade of football. I devised a mathematical system to rank the teams based on number of League Championships, Conference Championships, Division Championships, and Wild Card appearances. Tiebreakers were determined by record, and an (x) next to the team name means they gained the higher spot through a tiebreaker. I'll start out with the worst four teams of the decade, where there should be no debate.
32. Detroit Lions
This one is a no-brainer, when you compile the worst single-season record in NFL history you're bound to claim this dubious honor. The Detroit Lions have been on a championship drought for a long time, but they were at least competitive at some points in the past. Since Barry Sanders left after the 1998 season the team has been on a downward slide, posting a league worst 42-118 record over that span of time. In addition to that they have not made a single playoff appearance since the 1999 season, which makes them unquestionably the worst NFL team of the past decade.
31. Houston Texans (x)
Houston gets handicapped a bit here by virtue of not playing the first two seasons of the decade, but they still have not made a single playoff appearance since their inception in 2002. Despite having a better winning percentage than the Browns, the Browns have actually had a playoff appearance this decade, and their regular season record is still not good enough to beat out the only other of the three teams to not make a playoff appearance in the new millennium, the Buffalo Bills.
30. Buffalo Bills (x)
The Bills, like the Lions, are also plagued by a playoff drought going back to 1999, in addition to a dearth of sub-par seasons. Unlike the Lions, they have never gone 0-16 and have kept their win totals to around 6 a season. That's not good enough to get them anywhere near the playoffs, but it is enough to keep this fifty year old team just ahead of an eight year old expansion team.
29. Cleveland Browns
Some might object to Cleveland being so high on this list, and indeed the Browns do have a worse record than the Bills over the same period, and a worse percentage than the Texans. Still, the Browns did snag a Wild Card in 2002. They lost in the first round and have never returned, but the worst team to make the playoffs during 2000-2010 is still better than the worst teams who haven't made the playoffs.
Tomorrow will be the week one preview, but I'll return to the look back at the 2000's of football as the season goes on.
Early Predictions:
Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
There may be undue hype surrounding the Packers this year, but they are definitely a good team. Don't lock them in too early, though, as they play some tough teams and could be upset if they're not careful. I think the Bears will be an improved team regardless of if they make the playoffs or not, and right now I think there's enough evidence to at least hold out hope. The secondary and line present problems and they probably won't go deep if they do make it, but they could be good enough to pull out enough wins within the division in addition to some teams they match up well against. Minnesota is in a position to fall off I believe. Their defense is good, but the teams they face will know how to exploit them, and given performances against the Bears and 49ers last season I believe they are vulnerable. Detroit will get better, but not by much. I expect about four wins from them this season.
On to my retrospective on the past decade of football. I devised a mathematical system to rank the teams based on number of League Championships, Conference Championships, Division Championships, and Wild Card appearances. Tiebreakers were determined by record, and an (x) next to the team name means they gained the higher spot through a tiebreaker. I'll start out with the worst four teams of the decade, where there should be no debate.
32. Detroit Lions
This one is a no-brainer, when you compile the worst single-season record in NFL history you're bound to claim this dubious honor. The Detroit Lions have been on a championship drought for a long time, but they were at least competitive at some points in the past. Since Barry Sanders left after the 1998 season the team has been on a downward slide, posting a league worst 42-118 record over that span of time. In addition to that they have not made a single playoff appearance since the 1999 season, which makes them unquestionably the worst NFL team of the past decade.
31. Houston Texans (x)
Houston gets handicapped a bit here by virtue of not playing the first two seasons of the decade, but they still have not made a single playoff appearance since their inception in 2002. Despite having a better winning percentage than the Browns, the Browns have actually had a playoff appearance this decade, and their regular season record is still not good enough to beat out the only other of the three teams to not make a playoff appearance in the new millennium, the Buffalo Bills.
30. Buffalo Bills (x)
The Bills, like the Lions, are also plagued by a playoff drought going back to 1999, in addition to a dearth of sub-par seasons. Unlike the Lions, they have never gone 0-16 and have kept their win totals to around 6 a season. That's not good enough to get them anywhere near the playoffs, but it is enough to keep this fifty year old team just ahead of an eight year old expansion team.
29. Cleveland Browns
Some might object to Cleveland being so high on this list, and indeed the Browns do have a worse record than the Bills over the same period, and a worse percentage than the Texans. Still, the Browns did snag a Wild Card in 2002. They lost in the first round and have never returned, but the worst team to make the playoffs during 2000-2010 is still better than the worst teams who haven't made the playoffs.
Tomorrow will be the week one preview, but I'll return to the look back at the 2000's of football as the season goes on.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
NFC North Part Four: Da Bears!
Chicago Bears
2009 Record: 7-9, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Alex Brown, Gaines Adams, Adewale Ogunleye
Key Additions: Chester Taylor, Major Wright, Julius Peppers
And the moment I have been waiting for since I started these previews finally arrives, I get to preview my Chicago Bears. It's not all fun previewing my favorite team, they play in a tough division and have some looming questions. Still, despite the pre-season troubles the Bears have had, there are a lot of things to be excited about with this team, not the least of which is getting a dominant pass rusher on the team in Julius Peppers. They've got a long climb back to the post-season, they'll need to surpass either Green Bay or Minnesota just to have a shot, but they have more talent and potential than any year in recent history, I'll go so far as to say more than when they went to the Superbowl. Whether they can capitalize on it or not, though, remains to be seen.
Defense has been the big question for this team since the 06 season, so I'll start there. Good news first, again, Julius Peppers is lining up on the outside. Bad news, our number two end looks to be less of a slam dunk now that both Wale and Alex Brown are out of the picture. Personally, I would feel much better with Brown and Peppers providing a good one two, but this team is counting on Mark Anderson to produce. If he can come close to mimicking the success of his rookie season when he had 12 sacks we could return to being one of the top defenses in the league, but Bears fans have been expecting that for years now and it never comes to pass. He should be improved from last year with Peppers at end, but how much remains to be seen. Henry Melton, Israel Idonije, and Corey Wooten figure to be part of the equation at end, but all are unproven and production isn't a guarantee. Personally, I don't like Idonije at end, I think he is better suited for one of the inside positions.
Speaking of which, there is also uncertainty on the inside. Tommie Harris is back and healthy, but he has a history of breaking down as the season goes on. The pass rush cannot be reliant on Peppers alone, and having Harris stay healthy will be a key on our defense to being strong against the pass and the run. Starting next to him will be Anthony Adams, but I feel it would be better for the team if he didn't start the entire season. The best case scenario would be if either Matt Toeaina or Marcus Harrison stepped up and contributed to this offense, but again they remain unproven.
More good news, bad news. Good news, our starting linebacker trio looks to be ready for opening day. Bad news, Briggs is still banged up and Urlacher and Tinoisamoa have a history of injuries. By the way, I do still expect Pisa to start, I think he looked leaps and bounds better than Nick Roach in the pre-season. If this trio does start it can be one of the best units in the league, but if we have a repeat of last season where two of the three went down for the entire season then we could be in trouble.
The secondary is still what worries me most, though. I can never feel entirely comfortable about that unit. Major Wright had me feeling good about the starting free safety position until he went down with a finger injury, now the idea of Daniel Manning or Craig Steltz starting the entire season has me cringing. Even if Wright plays with the injury, as he said he intends to, the question of if it will hinder him in getting interceptions and how vulnerable he will be to reinjury has me worried. At strong safety Harris had me feeling good, until he made some ridiculous mistakes against Cleveland. I still feel better about him than the rest of the secondary. Corner has me especially worried, though. I don't care what Lovie says, Zack Bowman cannot cover the elite receivers in this league. This season we have to face Calvin Johnson (twice), Donald Driver (twice), DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Wes Welker, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, and Steve Smith (both of them). Bowman was getting beat on routes by the Cardinals' backup receivers, he is not a number one corner in this league. The coverage during the preseason, especially in man situations, has me pulling my hair out as usual, it could get ugly in that aspect. Finally, despite Manning being most successful at nickel, he is still at safety while two players who have had ups and downs, D.J. Moore and Corey Graham fight over the nickel position. I was under the impression that we'd be keeping one or possibly neither of them, but while special teams standout Tim Shaw gets cut those two both make the 53 man roster. This borders on ridiculous, and they had better stand out at nickel to justify their roster spots.
Offense offers more hope, despite what ever Chicago sports fan will tell you. Jay Cutler is a franchise quarterback, if he can make completions in the red zone he can be among the elite despite interceptions (hey, Brett Favre did it). Matt Forte and Chester Taylor are also great when they get room to run, both sprung a huge run in the pre-season. They also look extremely effective on screens, as does backup Khalil Bell who looks to figure in more than most would think with some solid runs in pre-season play. The tight ends are one of the most talented groups in football, and despite what everyone says our receivers are looking good. Everyone knows I'm high on Aromashodu, Hester is a good receiver as long as he isn't being highlighted, Knox looks to be progressing very nicely, Bennett is still a solid option, and I never thought I'd be hearing myself say this but Rashied Davis looked damn good in the pre-season. This offense is solid top to bottom, for the most part.
The big question, the one make or break, could be the line. Four of our five starters are starting in new positions, only Kreutz remains where he was last year. Three of those starters are unproven, and Lance Louis is getting thrown into the pool so to speak. Left tackle Chris Williams has looked good at times, but gets beat consistently by speedy rushers. Run blocking has looked good at times, but breaks down at others. This unit HAS to play not just well, but with consistency. 1,500 yards, a 4.0 average, and 35 sacks just are not going to cut it this year.
Not only could this be a make or break year for Lovie Smith, but it is a tough schedule as well. The vast majority of the teams we face are passing teams, and if we can't nail down the coverage especially on third downs we are going to get killed. The good news is that our offense can keep up so long as the offensive line plays at a high level. Ultimately, this season could come down to injuries. The defense is riddled with key players who have a tendency to go down, but if they can stay healthy the whole year we have a much better chance of winning. We are also going to be dependent on increased production at key positions, specifically in the secondary and offensive line. If they cannot do their part we could be in for a long season. For the first time in a while, though, we have an elite pass rusher on the team. Peppers joins a defense with three extremely talented linebackers, and a team with an underrated and potentially elite offense. At the end of the season we should at least be in the Wild Card conversation.
2009 Record: 7-9, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Alex Brown, Gaines Adams, Adewale Ogunleye
Key Additions: Chester Taylor, Major Wright, Julius Peppers
And the moment I have been waiting for since I started these previews finally arrives, I get to preview my Chicago Bears. It's not all fun previewing my favorite team, they play in a tough division and have some looming questions. Still, despite the pre-season troubles the Bears have had, there are a lot of things to be excited about with this team, not the least of which is getting a dominant pass rusher on the team in Julius Peppers. They've got a long climb back to the post-season, they'll need to surpass either Green Bay or Minnesota just to have a shot, but they have more talent and potential than any year in recent history, I'll go so far as to say more than when they went to the Superbowl. Whether they can capitalize on it or not, though, remains to be seen.
Defense has been the big question for this team since the 06 season, so I'll start there. Good news first, again, Julius Peppers is lining up on the outside. Bad news, our number two end looks to be less of a slam dunk now that both Wale and Alex Brown are out of the picture. Personally, I would feel much better with Brown and Peppers providing a good one two, but this team is counting on Mark Anderson to produce. If he can come close to mimicking the success of his rookie season when he had 12 sacks we could return to being one of the top defenses in the league, but Bears fans have been expecting that for years now and it never comes to pass. He should be improved from last year with Peppers at end, but how much remains to be seen. Henry Melton, Israel Idonije, and Corey Wooten figure to be part of the equation at end, but all are unproven and production isn't a guarantee. Personally, I don't like Idonije at end, I think he is better suited for one of the inside positions.
Speaking of which, there is also uncertainty on the inside. Tommie Harris is back and healthy, but he has a history of breaking down as the season goes on. The pass rush cannot be reliant on Peppers alone, and having Harris stay healthy will be a key on our defense to being strong against the pass and the run. Starting next to him will be Anthony Adams, but I feel it would be better for the team if he didn't start the entire season. The best case scenario would be if either Matt Toeaina or Marcus Harrison stepped up and contributed to this offense, but again they remain unproven.
More good news, bad news. Good news, our starting linebacker trio looks to be ready for opening day. Bad news, Briggs is still banged up and Urlacher and Tinoisamoa have a history of injuries. By the way, I do still expect Pisa to start, I think he looked leaps and bounds better than Nick Roach in the pre-season. If this trio does start it can be one of the best units in the league, but if we have a repeat of last season where two of the three went down for the entire season then we could be in trouble.
The secondary is still what worries me most, though. I can never feel entirely comfortable about that unit. Major Wright had me feeling good about the starting free safety position until he went down with a finger injury, now the idea of Daniel Manning or Craig Steltz starting the entire season has me cringing. Even if Wright plays with the injury, as he said he intends to, the question of if it will hinder him in getting interceptions and how vulnerable he will be to reinjury has me worried. At strong safety Harris had me feeling good, until he made some ridiculous mistakes against Cleveland. I still feel better about him than the rest of the secondary. Corner has me especially worried, though. I don't care what Lovie says, Zack Bowman cannot cover the elite receivers in this league. This season we have to face Calvin Johnson (twice), Donald Driver (twice), DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Wes Welker, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, and Steve Smith (both of them). Bowman was getting beat on routes by the Cardinals' backup receivers, he is not a number one corner in this league. The coverage during the preseason, especially in man situations, has me pulling my hair out as usual, it could get ugly in that aspect. Finally, despite Manning being most successful at nickel, he is still at safety while two players who have had ups and downs, D.J. Moore and Corey Graham fight over the nickel position. I was under the impression that we'd be keeping one or possibly neither of them, but while special teams standout Tim Shaw gets cut those two both make the 53 man roster. This borders on ridiculous, and they had better stand out at nickel to justify their roster spots.
Offense offers more hope, despite what ever Chicago sports fan will tell you. Jay Cutler is a franchise quarterback, if he can make completions in the red zone he can be among the elite despite interceptions (hey, Brett Favre did it). Matt Forte and Chester Taylor are also great when they get room to run, both sprung a huge run in the pre-season. They also look extremely effective on screens, as does backup Khalil Bell who looks to figure in more than most would think with some solid runs in pre-season play. The tight ends are one of the most talented groups in football, and despite what everyone says our receivers are looking good. Everyone knows I'm high on Aromashodu, Hester is a good receiver as long as he isn't being highlighted, Knox looks to be progressing very nicely, Bennett is still a solid option, and I never thought I'd be hearing myself say this but Rashied Davis looked damn good in the pre-season. This offense is solid top to bottom, for the most part.
The big question, the one make or break, could be the line. Four of our five starters are starting in new positions, only Kreutz remains where he was last year. Three of those starters are unproven, and Lance Louis is getting thrown into the pool so to speak. Left tackle Chris Williams has looked good at times, but gets beat consistently by speedy rushers. Run blocking has looked good at times, but breaks down at others. This unit HAS to play not just well, but with consistency. 1,500 yards, a 4.0 average, and 35 sacks just are not going to cut it this year.
Not only could this be a make or break year for Lovie Smith, but it is a tough schedule as well. The vast majority of the teams we face are passing teams, and if we can't nail down the coverage especially on third downs we are going to get killed. The good news is that our offense can keep up so long as the offensive line plays at a high level. Ultimately, this season could come down to injuries. The defense is riddled with key players who have a tendency to go down, but if they can stay healthy the whole year we have a much better chance of winning. We are also going to be dependent on increased production at key positions, specifically in the secondary and offensive line. If they cannot do their part we could be in for a long season. For the first time in a while, though, we have an elite pass rusher on the team. Peppers joins a defense with three extremely talented linebackers, and a team with an underrated and potentially elite offense. At the end of the season we should at least be in the Wild Card conversation.
Monday, September 6, 2010
NFC North Part Three: The Winter of my Discontent
Green Bay Packers
2009 Record: 11-5, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: 0-1
Key Losses: Ahman Green, Aaron Kampman, Johnny Jolly
Key Additions: Bryan Bulaga, Mike Neal, Morgan Burnett
All the buzz in the NFL has been around the Green Bay Packers since they exited the playoffs early last year despite scoring 45 points in their only game. I tend to be a person who downplays hype, and considering the team I would typically be expected to downplay it even more. The Packers are good this year, I am forced to admit it. As usual, though, the hype still exceeds actual potential and I am all too happy to act as a wet blanket to the media spark surrounding the Packers' season.
Despite all this hype and despite Green Bay having excellent success in previous offseason acquisitions, their draft was somewhat weak. Green Bay knew their line was a weak spot and addressed the tackle position first, but they still have some problems on defense that need addressing. Their corners, specifically, are getting up there in years and though they're set at the position, the logical move would be to draft their eventual replacements now instead of waiting until they're gone. Green Bay might be realizing that now, as starting strong safety Atari Bigby is out 4-8 weeks and starting corner Al Harris 6 weeks, both with injury. Part of the success of Green Bay's defense last season was their league-high 30 picks, with two starters gone they could fall behind early.
Another big loss for Green Bay is that of their nose tackle from last season, Johnny Jolly. They were expected to move Jolly to end and start 2009 draft pick B.J. Raji at nose tackle, which also could be a make or break move for the Pack, but now that he's out for all of 2010 on suspension they're going to have to make due without him at either position. They did draft two ends in 2010, and they're going to have to make due with those and their remaining veterans to pick up the slack.
The best news for Green Bay on defense is in their linebacking corps. Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk, and Clay Matthews make up one of the best corps in the league, and they fit in perfectly with Dom Capers' high octane blitz schemes. The Packers combined for 36 sacks as a team last year, enough to make most quarterbacks cringe. They were also dominant in overall pass and rush defense, ranking fifth and first, respectively. If Green Bay can mimic their success from last season they should have a good shot at taking the division.
Offense has its high and low points. Among the low points is their offensive line, which gave up a league-high 51 sacks. News on the running side is slightly better, with the team gaining 1,800 yards and a 4.3 average. They did draft a tackle in the first round and a guard in the fifth, but other than that the line looks similar to last year's. If the rookies cannot produce immediately then the unit could be in for a long year, especially in a division now containing Julius Peppers, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Ray Edwards.
The good news is that those 51 sacks didn't seem to slow Rodgers down too much last season. If they don't begin to compromise his health then he should be able to play through them just fine. He does have an aging receiving corps, though Jermicheal Finley adds some youth at tight end. On the running side of things, Ryan Grant quietly put up 1,200 yards last season, though they'd probably like to see better production from Brandon Jackson. The offense is very solid on the whole, though, and they possess the potential to go deep into the post-season.
The hype surrounding this team can be muted, but not by that much. They do, unquestionably, look good and should be a lock to make the post-season, if not take the division. They have a rough schedule, but they should be the favored team going into most of their matchups, though they could stumble early with key secondary players missing. Injuries, uncertainty, and young players stepping in should make them less of a lock than most are predicting, but a lock nonetheless. Still, no 16-0 season in the making here, expect certain teams to play them hard, especially within the division. They may end up division champs, but they're still going to have to fight for it.
2009 Record: 11-5, Second in Division
2009 Playoff Record: 0-1
Key Losses: Ahman Green, Aaron Kampman, Johnny Jolly
Key Additions: Bryan Bulaga, Mike Neal, Morgan Burnett
All the buzz in the NFL has been around the Green Bay Packers since they exited the playoffs early last year despite scoring 45 points in their only game. I tend to be a person who downplays hype, and considering the team I would typically be expected to downplay it even more. The Packers are good this year, I am forced to admit it. As usual, though, the hype still exceeds actual potential and I am all too happy to act as a wet blanket to the media spark surrounding the Packers' season.
Despite all this hype and despite Green Bay having excellent success in previous offseason acquisitions, their draft was somewhat weak. Green Bay knew their line was a weak spot and addressed the tackle position first, but they still have some problems on defense that need addressing. Their corners, specifically, are getting up there in years and though they're set at the position, the logical move would be to draft their eventual replacements now instead of waiting until they're gone. Green Bay might be realizing that now, as starting strong safety Atari Bigby is out 4-8 weeks and starting corner Al Harris 6 weeks, both with injury. Part of the success of Green Bay's defense last season was their league-high 30 picks, with two starters gone they could fall behind early.
Another big loss for Green Bay is that of their nose tackle from last season, Johnny Jolly. They were expected to move Jolly to end and start 2009 draft pick B.J. Raji at nose tackle, which also could be a make or break move for the Pack, but now that he's out for all of 2010 on suspension they're going to have to make due without him at either position. They did draft two ends in 2010, and they're going to have to make due with those and their remaining veterans to pick up the slack.
The best news for Green Bay on defense is in their linebacking corps. Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk, and Clay Matthews make up one of the best corps in the league, and they fit in perfectly with Dom Capers' high octane blitz schemes. The Packers combined for 36 sacks as a team last year, enough to make most quarterbacks cringe. They were also dominant in overall pass and rush defense, ranking fifth and first, respectively. If Green Bay can mimic their success from last season they should have a good shot at taking the division.
Offense has its high and low points. Among the low points is their offensive line, which gave up a league-high 51 sacks. News on the running side is slightly better, with the team gaining 1,800 yards and a 4.3 average. They did draft a tackle in the first round and a guard in the fifth, but other than that the line looks similar to last year's. If the rookies cannot produce immediately then the unit could be in for a long year, especially in a division now containing Julius Peppers, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Ray Edwards.
The good news is that those 51 sacks didn't seem to slow Rodgers down too much last season. If they don't begin to compromise his health then he should be able to play through them just fine. He does have an aging receiving corps, though Jermicheal Finley adds some youth at tight end. On the running side of things, Ryan Grant quietly put up 1,200 yards last season, though they'd probably like to see better production from Brandon Jackson. The offense is very solid on the whole, though, and they possess the potential to go deep into the post-season.
The hype surrounding this team can be muted, but not by that much. They do, unquestionably, look good and should be a lock to make the post-season, if not take the division. They have a rough schedule, but they should be the favored team going into most of their matchups, though they could stumble early with key secondary players missing. Injuries, uncertainty, and young players stepping in should make them less of a lock than most are predicting, but a lock nonetheless. Still, no 16-0 season in the making here, expect certain teams to play them hard, especially within the division. They may end up division champs, but they're still going to have to fight for it.
NFC North Part Two: Third Time's the Charm?
Minnesota Vikings
2009 Record: 12-4, Division Champions
2009 Playoff Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Chester Taylor, Benny Sapp, Sage Rosenfels
Key Additions: Lito Sheppard, Chris Cook, Toby Gerhart
For the past two seasons Brett Favre has been trying to win a Championship for the first time outside of Green Bay, he's hoping that this is the year he actually does it. If Minnesota makes it to the playoffs it will be the third time they have done it with a highly talented team, but they're hoping they can have better success than the past two occasions where they were unceremoniously bounced in the conference game. Everyone in the locker room is hoping that the third time is the charm for the Vikes, and it very well could be. Unlike the division rival Lions, however, this team is not looking for long-term success. There are many aging players on this roster, and if they fail to win a Superbowl this year it could be the last chance this team has at a playoffs for at least a few more.
They are in an extremely good position to repeat, though. They've retained almost all of their talent, added some young players, and addressed a position of need at corner. If there was one area where Minnesota needed improvement it was defense. They did rank sixth in the league in total defense and second in rush defense, but they were 19th in pass defense and 26th in interceptions despite leading the league in sacks. They made an upgrade at corner, widely called out as the weak link in their secondary, by grabbing former Jet Lito Sheppard. Sheppard is definitely an upgrade, but like Dunta Robinson in Atlanta there is a question of whether or not it will be enough. Their safeties are also a bit suspect, and with passers like Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler to deal with in addition to the great passers in the East divisions, the position could still prove to be a weak spot.
The rest of the defense is solid. Second against the run is great, and they've retained all of their linebackers in addition to getting E.J. Henderson back from injury. The Williams Wall is going to be there for another full season, and Edwards and Allen form the best pass rushing duo in the league on the outside. When I talk about the age of this team, though, defense is one area that stands out. This team has built itself around this defense for years, and some of the players are getting fairly old. Star tackle Pat Williams is entering his fourteenth year in the league. Most of their other defensive starters are hovering around 6 years or more, with the bigger concerns being around the ones nearing ten. Without Pat this team loses a step, and if it takes a couple of years to recover from that step then more of this team's starts start to look like Pat does now, as getting to the end of their careers.
Speaking of which, Brett Favre has to be nearing his as well. He had to undergo surgery in order to be able to play this season, and after the beating he took against New Orleans in the post-season many were questioning whether he would be back at all. He's back, but for how long is the question. Like Pat he is a keystone to this team's success, and if he leaves before this team wins a championship the repercussions could last a while. Still, when he is on the team he gives them an increased chance to win, especially if he plays like he did last year. During the 2009 season he threw only seven interceptions, a career low, though the Vikings' playoff hopes did end on one of those as did the Packers' the last two times he was playing in an important game for them. That is the other major weakness of this team, turnovers. One could argue that the turnovers committed by Favre and fumble-prone Adrian Peterson cost the Vikings the conference game and a Superbowl berth last year. Much of the Vikings' success this year could depend on Favre and Peterson's ability to protect the football.
The Vikings still have a tremendous running game, though, as they rushed for almost 2,000 yards as a team last season. Adrian Peterson is one of the best backs in the league, with fumbling being the one thing holding him back. That success starts with the line, though the line didn't have as much success in pass protection. They were lauded for keeping Favre upright last year, but despite that praise ranked 17th in the league and gave up 34 sacks. It's not a problem area, but it is an area I would want to see improvement in if I were Childress. This division is full of teams that are hungry for sacks; Chicago and Detroit both added some great pass rushers and Green Bay's scheme is predicated on getting plenty of sacks. If Minnesota isn't careful those 34 sacks could increase, which probably means more interceptions from Favre. If they want to take the division again they are going to have to have great protection against some of the best pass rushers in the league.
Minnesota does have a good chance to repeat, but they have to be air tight. Their secondary must improve from last year if they want to compete against quarterbacks like Rodgers, Cutler, McNabb, Brady, and others. They also are going to have to protect the ball, which means eliminating fumbles and protecting Favre. That won't be an easy task against the defenses they'll face. Chicago and Detroit will be improved from last year, Green Bay will look to continue their success on defense, and the rest of the teams they'll be facing won't be pushovers, either. I'll go back to week 16 of last season when they lost to the Chicago Bears. The Bears have improved from that game, as have most of Green Bay's opponents from last season. I don't know if the Vikings have done enough to keep pace, though they certainly do still have the advantage of already having been there. Still, I don't know that I can pencil them in as repeating Division Champions right now, I have a feeling they'll be fighting for a Wild Card spot come late season.
2009 Record: 12-4, Division Champions
2009 Playoff Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Chester Taylor, Benny Sapp, Sage Rosenfels
Key Additions: Lito Sheppard, Chris Cook, Toby Gerhart
For the past two seasons Brett Favre has been trying to win a Championship for the first time outside of Green Bay, he's hoping that this is the year he actually does it. If Minnesota makes it to the playoffs it will be the third time they have done it with a highly talented team, but they're hoping they can have better success than the past two occasions where they were unceremoniously bounced in the conference game. Everyone in the locker room is hoping that the third time is the charm for the Vikes, and it very well could be. Unlike the division rival Lions, however, this team is not looking for long-term success. There are many aging players on this roster, and if they fail to win a Superbowl this year it could be the last chance this team has at a playoffs for at least a few more.
They are in an extremely good position to repeat, though. They've retained almost all of their talent, added some young players, and addressed a position of need at corner. If there was one area where Minnesota needed improvement it was defense. They did rank sixth in the league in total defense and second in rush defense, but they were 19th in pass defense and 26th in interceptions despite leading the league in sacks. They made an upgrade at corner, widely called out as the weak link in their secondary, by grabbing former Jet Lito Sheppard. Sheppard is definitely an upgrade, but like Dunta Robinson in Atlanta there is a question of whether or not it will be enough. Their safeties are also a bit suspect, and with passers like Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler to deal with in addition to the great passers in the East divisions, the position could still prove to be a weak spot.
The rest of the defense is solid. Second against the run is great, and they've retained all of their linebackers in addition to getting E.J. Henderson back from injury. The Williams Wall is going to be there for another full season, and Edwards and Allen form the best pass rushing duo in the league on the outside. When I talk about the age of this team, though, defense is one area that stands out. This team has built itself around this defense for years, and some of the players are getting fairly old. Star tackle Pat Williams is entering his fourteenth year in the league. Most of their other defensive starters are hovering around 6 years or more, with the bigger concerns being around the ones nearing ten. Without Pat this team loses a step, and if it takes a couple of years to recover from that step then more of this team's starts start to look like Pat does now, as getting to the end of their careers.
Speaking of which, Brett Favre has to be nearing his as well. He had to undergo surgery in order to be able to play this season, and after the beating he took against New Orleans in the post-season many were questioning whether he would be back at all. He's back, but for how long is the question. Like Pat he is a keystone to this team's success, and if he leaves before this team wins a championship the repercussions could last a while. Still, when he is on the team he gives them an increased chance to win, especially if he plays like he did last year. During the 2009 season he threw only seven interceptions, a career low, though the Vikings' playoff hopes did end on one of those as did the Packers' the last two times he was playing in an important game for them. That is the other major weakness of this team, turnovers. One could argue that the turnovers committed by Favre and fumble-prone Adrian Peterson cost the Vikings the conference game and a Superbowl berth last year. Much of the Vikings' success this year could depend on Favre and Peterson's ability to protect the football.
The Vikings still have a tremendous running game, though, as they rushed for almost 2,000 yards as a team last season. Adrian Peterson is one of the best backs in the league, with fumbling being the one thing holding him back. That success starts with the line, though the line didn't have as much success in pass protection. They were lauded for keeping Favre upright last year, but despite that praise ranked 17th in the league and gave up 34 sacks. It's not a problem area, but it is an area I would want to see improvement in if I were Childress. This division is full of teams that are hungry for sacks; Chicago and Detroit both added some great pass rushers and Green Bay's scheme is predicated on getting plenty of sacks. If Minnesota isn't careful those 34 sacks could increase, which probably means more interceptions from Favre. If they want to take the division again they are going to have to have great protection against some of the best pass rushers in the league.
Minnesota does have a good chance to repeat, but they have to be air tight. Their secondary must improve from last year if they want to compete against quarterbacks like Rodgers, Cutler, McNabb, Brady, and others. They also are going to have to protect the ball, which means eliminating fumbles and protecting Favre. That won't be an easy task against the defenses they'll face. Chicago and Detroit will be improved from last year, Green Bay will look to continue their success on defense, and the rest of the teams they'll be facing won't be pushovers, either. I'll go back to week 16 of last season when they lost to the Chicago Bears. The Bears have improved from that game, as have most of Green Bay's opponents from last season. I don't know if the Vikings have done enough to keep pace, though they certainly do still have the advantage of already having been there. Still, I don't know that I can pencil them in as repeating Division Champions right now, I have a feeling they'll be fighting for a Wild Card spot come late season.
Sunday, September 5, 2010
NFC North Part One: Light at the end of the Tunnel
The NFC North has quietly been one of the more competitive divisions in the NFL lately, a big reason for the lack of attention being the undue attention the NFC East gets on a yearly basis. After the Vikings went to the NFC Championship game last season and the Packers put up a great show against the Cardinals in the Division game, though, the North is finally getting some credit. After domination by Green Bay in the 90's, the Bears and Vikings have taken the Division Crown in six of the ten years since 2000. This still means that Green Bay has taken the Crown in four, which is more than either team has on its own. All this adds up to one, if not the, most competitive divisions in the regular season, and this season looks to be another year of tough fighting in the North.
Detroit Lions
2009 Record: 2-14, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Larry Foote, Ernie Sims, Robert Henderson
Key Additions: Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Nate Burleson
So I'm breaking my mold of breaking down who I think will be the best teams first and randomizing the North for the most part, that's because I always like to save the best for last. I'll start with the Lions, who have been one of the worst teams in football for at least a decade now, making history by being the only team to go 0-16 in the regular season. All those high draft picks are starting to pay off, though, and with a young quarterback and head coach leading this team they promise to improve on the two wins they had last season.
The Lions have had one of the better offseasons in the league. They didn't have any huge losses outside of Larry Foote, and they made a big splash in both free agency and the trade market. We'll start out on offense, where they have been at least steady over the past few years. They already have some pieces in place with Matthew Stafford emerging as a franchise QB and Calvin Johnson having proven himself to be an elite receiver. They added Burleson, a number one in Seattle, as a proven compliment to Johnson, which should improve their passing game greatly. Also a big move in the passing game was grabbing tight end Tony Scheffler from the Broncos. One area they didn't improve much was tackle, only addressing the position by drafting a player in the fourth round and picking up an unproven player off the street. They're going to need improvement, as the Lions ranked 24th in the league in sacks allowed last season.
The run game has seen improvements as well. They've done well with Kevin Smith, but decided to draft a compliment to him in Jahvid Best. Best has looked great in the preseason, and they should make a potent one-two combination. They did upgrade on the line in the running aspect, nabbing guard Rob Sims from the Seahawks. They weren't horrible in the run game last season, but they would certainly like to improve on 1,616 yards and a 4.0 average, and Best and Sims should help them do that.
Defense is the one area that has been their Achilles' heel in recent years. They have always carried some promising players, but that didn't translate well to production. They made a concerted effort to change that this offseason, and it definitely shows. They picked up one of the better pass rushers in the league in Kyle Vanden Bosch and drafted the top rated pass rusher in Ndamukong Suh. They also picked up Corey Williams from the Browns, and now their line has gone from looking like one of the most lethargic in the league to one of the best in a short period of time.
There is still plenty of concern in other area of the defense, though. Last season they were, bar none, the worst team in the league in overall defense. Whereas a team like Cleveland had a bright spot in sack totals, the Lions never broke 29th in any major category. Their linebacking corps still looks depleted, they lost Larry Foote and Ernie Sims and only added Isiah Ekejiuba, and run defense will still be suspect until they prove otherwise. Secondary isn't much better, though they did improve. Louis Delmas has been on an island at safety, and they didn't add another safety that is a significant upgrade. The only corner that stuck past cuts was Chris Houston, and coming from a maligned secondary in Atlanta he doesn't seem like the significant upgrade the Lions need. They will definitely be counting on the pass rush to improve the play of their corners, whether it does or not remains to be seen.
Detroit still has gaping holes, especially on defense. Three of their games last season came by eight point or less, and both of their wins by five points or less. The upgrades they've made are enough to make close games like those winnable, but they are not enough to significantly improve this team's record. Had this team been playing last year, at best they could have gone from two wins to five. Expect that kind of improvement from Detroit, five, maybe six wins. The schedule, also will most definitely not be kind to them. The two East divisions are tough, their division rivals are solid, and even games against other last place teams from last year could give them trouble. Detroit should look at this as a building season, if they can win a few games and retain most of their talent it should be a positive step forward.
Detroit Lions
2009 Record: 2-14, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Larry Foote, Ernie Sims, Robert Henderson
Key Additions: Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Nate Burleson
So I'm breaking my mold of breaking down who I think will be the best teams first and randomizing the North for the most part, that's because I always like to save the best for last. I'll start with the Lions, who have been one of the worst teams in football for at least a decade now, making history by being the only team to go 0-16 in the regular season. All those high draft picks are starting to pay off, though, and with a young quarterback and head coach leading this team they promise to improve on the two wins they had last season.
The Lions have had one of the better offseasons in the league. They didn't have any huge losses outside of Larry Foote, and they made a big splash in both free agency and the trade market. We'll start out on offense, where they have been at least steady over the past few years. They already have some pieces in place with Matthew Stafford emerging as a franchise QB and Calvin Johnson having proven himself to be an elite receiver. They added Burleson, a number one in Seattle, as a proven compliment to Johnson, which should improve their passing game greatly. Also a big move in the passing game was grabbing tight end Tony Scheffler from the Broncos. One area they didn't improve much was tackle, only addressing the position by drafting a player in the fourth round and picking up an unproven player off the street. They're going to need improvement, as the Lions ranked 24th in the league in sacks allowed last season.
The run game has seen improvements as well. They've done well with Kevin Smith, but decided to draft a compliment to him in Jahvid Best. Best has looked great in the preseason, and they should make a potent one-two combination. They did upgrade on the line in the running aspect, nabbing guard Rob Sims from the Seahawks. They weren't horrible in the run game last season, but they would certainly like to improve on 1,616 yards and a 4.0 average, and Best and Sims should help them do that.
Defense is the one area that has been their Achilles' heel in recent years. They have always carried some promising players, but that didn't translate well to production. They made a concerted effort to change that this offseason, and it definitely shows. They picked up one of the better pass rushers in the league in Kyle Vanden Bosch and drafted the top rated pass rusher in Ndamukong Suh. They also picked up Corey Williams from the Browns, and now their line has gone from looking like one of the most lethargic in the league to one of the best in a short period of time.
There is still plenty of concern in other area of the defense, though. Last season they were, bar none, the worst team in the league in overall defense. Whereas a team like Cleveland had a bright spot in sack totals, the Lions never broke 29th in any major category. Their linebacking corps still looks depleted, they lost Larry Foote and Ernie Sims and only added Isiah Ekejiuba, and run defense will still be suspect until they prove otherwise. Secondary isn't much better, though they did improve. Louis Delmas has been on an island at safety, and they didn't add another safety that is a significant upgrade. The only corner that stuck past cuts was Chris Houston, and coming from a maligned secondary in Atlanta he doesn't seem like the significant upgrade the Lions need. They will definitely be counting on the pass rush to improve the play of their corners, whether it does or not remains to be seen.
Detroit still has gaping holes, especially on defense. Three of their games last season came by eight point or less, and both of their wins by five points or less. The upgrades they've made are enough to make close games like those winnable, but they are not enough to significantly improve this team's record. Had this team been playing last year, at best they could have gone from two wins to five. Expect that kind of improvement from Detroit, five, maybe six wins. The schedule, also will most definitely not be kind to them. The two East divisions are tough, their division rivals are solid, and even games against other last place teams from last year could give them trouble. Detroit should look at this as a building season, if they can win a few games and retain most of their talent it should be a positive step forward.
AFC North Wrap-Up, Be Happy
This is the worst time for a sports fan like me, baseball playoffs haven't started yet, hockey and basketball are still a while away, and the few short days until the greatest sport ever kicks off its season feel like a lifetime. There's still some baseball to be played and the playoff race is getting close, and I have a few thoughts about sports fans, but first I'll finish my preview of the AFC North.
Early Predictions:
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
I was very down on the Steelers before I did my preview, I was convinced they would be fighting for the third spot with Cleveland, though I did think they would win out in the end. After seeing the improvements they've made on offense and the difference that injured players returning should make, I'm forced to admit that they look damn good. Yes, they got swept by the Bengals last season and yes, they lost some easy games. That being said, with Mendenhall going into his first full season as starter, Flozell anchoring the line, and Mike Wallace coming into his own this offense looks ready to compete, and the defense was never i question. I'm still high on the Bengals, but I think they have more to prove than the Steelers. The Bengals have had problems putting successful back to back seasons together, and though they have made improvements I doubt they will mimic the domination over the division that they did last season. Cleveland is also much better than I thought, and I already was impressed with the way they finished the season. I still don't believe that they can move out of last place, but they should get a couple of division wins and could improve on their 5-11 record, if only by a couple of games. The Ravens are the undisputed champs in my mind. Their offense has come into its own behind Joe Flacco and Ray Rice, and now with Anquan Bolding heading up their receiving corps they should be one of the best offenses in the league. Question on defense prevent me from crowning them champs right now as others are doing, but they still have potential to go deep into the playoffs.
Hockey and basketball are dead topics now, although I did see an amusing article on the recent meeting of the Chicago sports teams that have won championships since '86, it took a well-deserved shot at the 102 year championship sporting Cubs. Speaking of championships, the Sox aren't out of the chase yet, but things aren't looking particularly good for them. It was thought that a Central team making the Wild Card was out of the question, but the Sox are neck and neck with the Red Sox for the second spot. The Division looks increasingly out of the question as the Twins continue to play good ball, oh and by the way Kenny, thanks for giving Thome to them on a silver platter, DH by committee my ass. The concern now is the way the Sox are playing against division leaders. They played good ball against Boston, but they've been getting killed by teams like the Yankees and the Twins. Even if they do make the playoffs, they need to play better if they have any hope of going anywhere. In both respects, making the playoffs and winning in them, what they need is a late season push. That's what propelled them to their World Series win in 05 and it's exactly what they need to secure a playoff berth and carry that momentum into the postseason this year. Sox fans are waiting, guys, anytime you want to make that push would be nice.
I recently chastised a fellow Bears fan for lashing out at a sports writer, and the incident was just the culmination of something that's been going on in sports that's bothered me for a while. Why is it so impossible for us fans to enjoy sports without turning into complete tools? This behavior goes on in many cities, I've seen Philly fans as the ultimate sports jerks for a long time now. Besides their complete disrespect for the tradition of the Stanley Cup recently when they lost it at home, they have a long history of heckling and antagonizing visiting fans, from getting into fights to pelting them with snowballs. I noticed this kind of behavior on a recent trip to Lambeau as well. Though my previous two visits were largely incident-free, the fans seemed much less amiable on the third. I'll admit there was always some good-natured competitiveness between the fans, the cheeseheads gave us crap before the game for our team's struggles up to that point and we gave them crap after the game for their team losing, but it never seemed acrimonious. The last time I was up there it was much different, with far less friendly insults being hurled both before and after the game and a near complete breakdown in decorum.
Though I've never been to a regular season game at Soldier Field, I have witnessed similar behavior in Chicago in the form of what Bears fans are saying. It seems that, since the Lovie era began, sports fans have become more and more willing to criticize and far more vociferous in their criticisms. I'm all for criticizing when it's appropriate, but it seems that Chicago fans have determined that time to be all the time. Everything gets criticized, everyone gets criticized, there are no good guys until the Bears are holding a Lombardi Trophy. Not only is this a poor reflection on our fanbase, but it also makes the criticisms seem less valid. When a valid criticism is thrown out it doesn't stand out, it seems like just another slight in the tidal wave of slights emanating from Chicago sports fans.
It doesn't stop with the Bears, either. That team which we call professional up on Addison street seems to attract its fair share of degenerates, from drunken hecklers and pugilists to the normal base that delights in insulting their home team, though they are worthy of insult. Milton Bradley claimed to be subject to racial slurs on a regular basis, and while some of his claims on the subject may be exaggerated I have no doubt that this behavior is the norm in that glorified beer garden called Wrigley. Now I know, maybe lumping drunken frat boys who go to watch a second rate team like the Cubs in with Bears fans who care about a team with tradition isn't fair, and maybe it's unrealistic to expect change from either the Cubs or their drunken horde, but the fact still remains that this behavior is degrading to sports as a whole. Take the movie Big Fan for instance, I sat through that entire disaster and came out disgusted at whoever dreamed up that script. The whole movie treated sports fans as either obnoxious, drunken, assholes or socially debilitated shut-ins. Though blame for the portrayal lies ultimately with the writer, do you really think it helps this perception when a section full of fans pelts two people relentlessly with snowballs, or when a player leaves a fanbase in disgust for being subjected to racial slurs on the field? I'm all for having a good time, I'm all for getting a little drunk, and I'm all for a little friendly rivalry, but there's a point when we cross that line between taking pleasure in the sport itself and having a good time, over into getting caught up in hostility and ruining the experience not just for others, but for ourselves as well.
Early Predictions:
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
I was very down on the Steelers before I did my preview, I was convinced they would be fighting for the third spot with Cleveland, though I did think they would win out in the end. After seeing the improvements they've made on offense and the difference that injured players returning should make, I'm forced to admit that they look damn good. Yes, they got swept by the Bengals last season and yes, they lost some easy games. That being said, with Mendenhall going into his first full season as starter, Flozell anchoring the line, and Mike Wallace coming into his own this offense looks ready to compete, and the defense was never i question. I'm still high on the Bengals, but I think they have more to prove than the Steelers. The Bengals have had problems putting successful back to back seasons together, and though they have made improvements I doubt they will mimic the domination over the division that they did last season. Cleveland is also much better than I thought, and I already was impressed with the way they finished the season. I still don't believe that they can move out of last place, but they should get a couple of division wins and could improve on their 5-11 record, if only by a couple of games. The Ravens are the undisputed champs in my mind. Their offense has come into its own behind Joe Flacco and Ray Rice, and now with Anquan Bolding heading up their receiving corps they should be one of the best offenses in the league. Question on defense prevent me from crowning them champs right now as others are doing, but they still have potential to go deep into the playoffs.
Hockey and basketball are dead topics now, although I did see an amusing article on the recent meeting of the Chicago sports teams that have won championships since '86, it took a well-deserved shot at the 102 year championship sporting Cubs. Speaking of championships, the Sox aren't out of the chase yet, but things aren't looking particularly good for them. It was thought that a Central team making the Wild Card was out of the question, but the Sox are neck and neck with the Red Sox for the second spot. The Division looks increasingly out of the question as the Twins continue to play good ball, oh and by the way Kenny, thanks for giving Thome to them on a silver platter, DH by committee my ass. The concern now is the way the Sox are playing against division leaders. They played good ball against Boston, but they've been getting killed by teams like the Yankees and the Twins. Even if they do make the playoffs, they need to play better if they have any hope of going anywhere. In both respects, making the playoffs and winning in them, what they need is a late season push. That's what propelled them to their World Series win in 05 and it's exactly what they need to secure a playoff berth and carry that momentum into the postseason this year. Sox fans are waiting, guys, anytime you want to make that push would be nice.
I recently chastised a fellow Bears fan for lashing out at a sports writer, and the incident was just the culmination of something that's been going on in sports that's bothered me for a while. Why is it so impossible for us fans to enjoy sports without turning into complete tools? This behavior goes on in many cities, I've seen Philly fans as the ultimate sports jerks for a long time now. Besides their complete disrespect for the tradition of the Stanley Cup recently when they lost it at home, they have a long history of heckling and antagonizing visiting fans, from getting into fights to pelting them with snowballs. I noticed this kind of behavior on a recent trip to Lambeau as well. Though my previous two visits were largely incident-free, the fans seemed much less amiable on the third. I'll admit there was always some good-natured competitiveness between the fans, the cheeseheads gave us crap before the game for our team's struggles up to that point and we gave them crap after the game for their team losing, but it never seemed acrimonious. The last time I was up there it was much different, with far less friendly insults being hurled both before and after the game and a near complete breakdown in decorum.
Though I've never been to a regular season game at Soldier Field, I have witnessed similar behavior in Chicago in the form of what Bears fans are saying. It seems that, since the Lovie era began, sports fans have become more and more willing to criticize and far more vociferous in their criticisms. I'm all for criticizing when it's appropriate, but it seems that Chicago fans have determined that time to be all the time. Everything gets criticized, everyone gets criticized, there are no good guys until the Bears are holding a Lombardi Trophy. Not only is this a poor reflection on our fanbase, but it also makes the criticisms seem less valid. When a valid criticism is thrown out it doesn't stand out, it seems like just another slight in the tidal wave of slights emanating from Chicago sports fans.
It doesn't stop with the Bears, either. That team which we call professional up on Addison street seems to attract its fair share of degenerates, from drunken hecklers and pugilists to the normal base that delights in insulting their home team, though they are worthy of insult. Milton Bradley claimed to be subject to racial slurs on a regular basis, and while some of his claims on the subject may be exaggerated I have no doubt that this behavior is the norm in that glorified beer garden called Wrigley. Now I know, maybe lumping drunken frat boys who go to watch a second rate team like the Cubs in with Bears fans who care about a team with tradition isn't fair, and maybe it's unrealistic to expect change from either the Cubs or their drunken horde, but the fact still remains that this behavior is degrading to sports as a whole. Take the movie Big Fan for instance, I sat through that entire disaster and came out disgusted at whoever dreamed up that script. The whole movie treated sports fans as either obnoxious, drunken, assholes or socially debilitated shut-ins. Though blame for the portrayal lies ultimately with the writer, do you really think it helps this perception when a section full of fans pelts two people relentlessly with snowballs, or when a player leaves a fanbase in disgust for being subjected to racial slurs on the field? I'm all for having a good time, I'm all for getting a little drunk, and I'm all for a little friendly rivalry, but there's a point when we cross that line between taking pleasure in the sport itself and having a good time, over into getting caught up in hostility and ruining the experience not just for others, but for ourselves as well.
Saturday, September 4, 2010
AFC North Part Four: Don't Stop Believing
Cleveland Browns
2009 Record: 5-11, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Kamerion Wimbley, Jamal Lewis, Donté Stallworth
Key Additions: Jake Delhomme, Scott Fujita, Chris Gocong
Cleveland has been regarded as one of the worst franchises since the team was relocated to Baltimore and brought back as an expansion team. Since their return in 1999 they've gone 59-117 with only two winning seasons out of eleven. They've never been able to build on their success, and their high draft picks pan out only occasionally. They hope to have a change in philosophy with new head of talent Mike Holmgren, but it could take a while for him to affect the organization. Coach Eric Mangini, after coming in his first year and clashing with players on many issues, could be in a make or break year very quickly. He's gotten significant upgrades in talent, but the pressure will be on him to get his players to perform at their best. They still don't have a team competitive enough to challenge the big boys in their division, but hopefully they have laid the foundations for a better team down the line.
Last seasons Cleveland was equally dismal on both sides of the ball. Their numbers in defense and offense are fairly similar in terms of ratings, but we'll start on offense. 20th in the league in interceptions given up, last in passing yards per game, and last in overall offense. Cleveland was miserable in the pass game in particular, and they're hoping that trading two unproven QBs for former Superbowl quarterback Jake Delhomme will up their production. Delhomme has struggled recently in Carolina despite a solid rushing game, and he could struggle in Cleveland as well. He doesn't have the luxury of Steve Smith anymore, though young receivers Mohamed Massaquoi and Joshua Cribbs continue to show promise. Brian Robiskie also provides some depth along with veterans Chansi Stuckey and Bobby Engram, and veteran tight end Benjamin Watson is a significant improvement. How effective they will be as a group remains unclear, but they show plenty of promise.
the two areas Cleveland can't blame for its offensive struggles are the line and running back. Cleveland was 10th in the league in sacks allowed, a good sing for Delhomme and rookie McCoy of he comes in. The line also provided good support for a run game that was eighth in the league with over 2,000 yards and a 4.2 average. They seem convinced they have a good number one in fifth year pro Jerome Harrison, who went t over 800 yards in just seven games starting, and their second string back who will be in his first full NFL season has looked like a tremendous power runner so far in the pre-season. This tandem could gouge teams who are not careful to account for them.
On defense there is also a similar bright spot, as Cleveland was eighth in the league in sacks. Barring that, they never managed to get over 28th in any major category. Rushing was a problem for them, and passing defense was miserable. They especially needed more interceptions, something they hope to improve through some of their additions. The Browns have signed linebacker Scott Fujita from the championship Saints, traded for cornerback Sheldon Brown and linebacker Chris Gocong, spent their first two picks on a cornerback and safety, and picked up a defensive end in the late rounds of the draft. In addition they get their defensive line standout Shaun Rogers back and will start him at what they feel to be his natural position of end. This is all needed improvement, but the question is will it be enough? The pickups at linebacker are great, but the other two starters are still lacking. Will the line be able to stand up to the run even with Rogers back? Can Gocong and a couple of rookies bump them up into the top half of the league in pass defense? Cleveland has had a great offseason on defense, but it might require one or two similar ones in the coming seasons before it pays off, due in no small part to the strength of their division rivals.
Cleveland has made some great strides this offseason, but whether or not they will pay off right away remains to be seen. Their schedule isn't favorable to them, the Chiefs and Jaguars could end up victimizing them if their run games doesn't improve. They could sneak some wins in against the NFC South and AFC East and I do expect them to pick up a division win or two, but they could again find themselves at 4-5 wins at the end of the season. If this offseason is any indication of their future, though, the AFC North could be getting a lot more competitive in the coming years.
2009 Record: 5-11, Fourth in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did not Qualify
Key Losses: Kamerion Wimbley, Jamal Lewis, Donté Stallworth
Key Additions: Jake Delhomme, Scott Fujita, Chris Gocong
Cleveland has been regarded as one of the worst franchises since the team was relocated to Baltimore and brought back as an expansion team. Since their return in 1999 they've gone 59-117 with only two winning seasons out of eleven. They've never been able to build on their success, and their high draft picks pan out only occasionally. They hope to have a change in philosophy with new head of talent Mike Holmgren, but it could take a while for him to affect the organization. Coach Eric Mangini, after coming in his first year and clashing with players on many issues, could be in a make or break year very quickly. He's gotten significant upgrades in talent, but the pressure will be on him to get his players to perform at their best. They still don't have a team competitive enough to challenge the big boys in their division, but hopefully they have laid the foundations for a better team down the line.
Last seasons Cleveland was equally dismal on both sides of the ball. Their numbers in defense and offense are fairly similar in terms of ratings, but we'll start on offense. 20th in the league in interceptions given up, last in passing yards per game, and last in overall offense. Cleveland was miserable in the pass game in particular, and they're hoping that trading two unproven QBs for former Superbowl quarterback Jake Delhomme will up their production. Delhomme has struggled recently in Carolina despite a solid rushing game, and he could struggle in Cleveland as well. He doesn't have the luxury of Steve Smith anymore, though young receivers Mohamed Massaquoi and Joshua Cribbs continue to show promise. Brian Robiskie also provides some depth along with veterans Chansi Stuckey and Bobby Engram, and veteran tight end Benjamin Watson is a significant improvement. How effective they will be as a group remains unclear, but they show plenty of promise.
the two areas Cleveland can't blame for its offensive struggles are the line and running back. Cleveland was 10th in the league in sacks allowed, a good sing for Delhomme and rookie McCoy of he comes in. The line also provided good support for a run game that was eighth in the league with over 2,000 yards and a 4.2 average. They seem convinced they have a good number one in fifth year pro Jerome Harrison, who went t over 800 yards in just seven games starting, and their second string back who will be in his first full NFL season has looked like a tremendous power runner so far in the pre-season. This tandem could gouge teams who are not careful to account for them.
On defense there is also a similar bright spot, as Cleveland was eighth in the league in sacks. Barring that, they never managed to get over 28th in any major category. Rushing was a problem for them, and passing defense was miserable. They especially needed more interceptions, something they hope to improve through some of their additions. The Browns have signed linebacker Scott Fujita from the championship Saints, traded for cornerback Sheldon Brown and linebacker Chris Gocong, spent their first two picks on a cornerback and safety, and picked up a defensive end in the late rounds of the draft. In addition they get their defensive line standout Shaun Rogers back and will start him at what they feel to be his natural position of end. This is all needed improvement, but the question is will it be enough? The pickups at linebacker are great, but the other two starters are still lacking. Will the line be able to stand up to the run even with Rogers back? Can Gocong and a couple of rookies bump them up into the top half of the league in pass defense? Cleveland has had a great offseason on defense, but it might require one or two similar ones in the coming seasons before it pays off, due in no small part to the strength of their division rivals.
Cleveland has made some great strides this offseason, but whether or not they will pay off right away remains to be seen. Their schedule isn't favorable to them, the Chiefs and Jaguars could end up victimizing them if their run games doesn't improve. They could sneak some wins in against the NFC South and AFC East and I do expect them to pick up a division win or two, but they could again find themselves at 4-5 wins at the end of the season. If this offseason is any indication of their future, though, the AFC North could be getting a lot more competitive in the coming years.
AFC North Part Three: Steel Will
Pittsburgh Steelers
2009 Record: 9-7, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did Not Qualify
Key Losses: Willie Parker, Joey Galloway, Willie Colon
Key Additions: Larry Foote, Flozell Adams, Antwaan Randle El
The Steelers have been the team to beat for the past decade in the AFC North. They've won two Superbowls under two different coaches and took the division title in five of the last ten years. They've been especially dominant in recent years as the Bengals battled injuries and the Ravens struggled to rebuild after success early in the decade. The Steelers have always gotten by despite some glaring holes at certain positions. They've fallen off in key areas while the Bengals and Ravens have gotten far better. It's not that the Steelers have gotten much worse, but the improvements that their opponents have made are too much for Pittsburgh to keep pace with. The Bengals swept them last season, and Baltimore came a touchdown away from doing the same. Pittsburgh is struggling with injuries and suspensions already, and they will be fighting all season to get back to the top.
One thing that has always been accepted in Pittsburgh is that the quarterback protection will be horrible. Losing tackle Willie Colon would seem like a deathblow to an already vulnerable area, but it could prove to be a blessing in disguise. Though he was an anchor on the line, his injury prompted management to go out and get star free agent tackle Flozell Adams. I believe this will be one of the more important free agent signings in the offseason, and he will definitely upgrade the protection that has been so poor in the past. There will still be some pressure on right side starter Max Starks to improve, as Flozell isn't a fix-all on a line that has been constantly maligned for its protection and little else has been done to upgrade the position, but at least the protection should be better than last year.
The other aspect of the line has come under some scrutiny recently as well. The Steelers have had some disappointment in the run game since their Superbowl win in 2005. They thought they had solved the problem by getting rid of aging veteran Willie Parker and replacing him with Rashard Mendenhall, but still ranked just in the bottom half of the league in the run game. Pittsburgh has built its team on having a dominant run game, and with uncertainty at the quarterback and receiver positions they will want to see better production, which starts with the line. Pittsburgh notices this as well, as they made a significant effort to sign and draft guards during the offseason. It looks to be an area coach Tomlin is dedicated to improving.
The good news on offense is that Mendenhall had a tremendous season in his first as a starter, in only twelve games starting he had 1,100 yards and a 4.6 average. If the line improves he should have at least as good a season and could take some of the pressure off the quarterback. Those sack numbers might start to go down, and more defenders in the box means an easier time for the receivers. The receiver situation has good and bad news as well. The good news comes in the form of the projected starters Mike Wallace and Hines Ward, and tight end Heath Miller. All three are considerable talents at the position and possess unique skills, they should provide a boost to whoever is behind center. The bad news comes in the form of uncertainty. Backing them up are a rookie and two veterans who have had their ups and downs. Arnaz Battle and Antwaan Randle El have seen their production drop off in recent years, the Steelers are probably hoping to see those numbers rebound this year for at least one of them.
The Big concern going in, though, is quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger will be coming back after week 4 instead of week 6, but those four games are still fairly tough. The Falcons, Titans, and Ravens are all very tough teams, and the Bucs could surprise the Steelers with their star QB riding the bench. It's not even the ability of the rest of the Steelers team or the backup quarterbacks I'm questioning, but against teams with talent in the secondary and who can score enough points to outplay a backup they could be in for dire straights. I'd say they'd be lucky to go 2-2 through those four. After Big Ben gets back things will be different. They'll look like a much better team, the question will be how they can play against Cincinnati. As I said, the Bengals swept them last year and I'm doubtful that the Steelers have improved enough to overtake them, although another sweep seems unlikely.
The defense is a bright spot for this team, they finished fifth in total defense last year. They're also getting star safety Troy Polamalu back, who should help them improve from 16th in the league against the pass and 25th in interceptions. They were again in the top five in the league in sacks and run defense, so that shouldn't be an area for much concern. Despite all that, they still managed to finish third in their division and miss the playoffs last year, and the defense won't be able to carry them all the way this year. They will be a tough team to face, but they're going to need their offense to win games when their defense gives them that chance.
I believe this is one team whose schedule really favors them. They should be the favorites going up against NFC East teams, though the Giants could give them some problems. They also have an advantage against the Raiders, but the Titans could pose a problem in the early season. What will make or break this season for them is division play. I still believe the Ravens are the favorites in this division, but the competition between he Steelers and Bengals could be fierce. The Steelers are going to have to play them hard, and if they get swept again they could be watching the playoffs from home once again.
2009 Record: 9-7, Third in Division
2009 Playoff Record: Did Not Qualify
Key Losses: Willie Parker, Joey Galloway, Willie Colon
Key Additions: Larry Foote, Flozell Adams, Antwaan Randle El
The Steelers have been the team to beat for the past decade in the AFC North. They've won two Superbowls under two different coaches and took the division title in five of the last ten years. They've been especially dominant in recent years as the Bengals battled injuries and the Ravens struggled to rebuild after success early in the decade. The Steelers have always gotten by despite some glaring holes at certain positions. They've fallen off in key areas while the Bengals and Ravens have gotten far better. It's not that the Steelers have gotten much worse, but the improvements that their opponents have made are too much for Pittsburgh to keep pace with. The Bengals swept them last season, and Baltimore came a touchdown away from doing the same. Pittsburgh is struggling with injuries and suspensions already, and they will be fighting all season to get back to the top.
One thing that has always been accepted in Pittsburgh is that the quarterback protection will be horrible. Losing tackle Willie Colon would seem like a deathblow to an already vulnerable area, but it could prove to be a blessing in disguise. Though he was an anchor on the line, his injury prompted management to go out and get star free agent tackle Flozell Adams. I believe this will be one of the more important free agent signings in the offseason, and he will definitely upgrade the protection that has been so poor in the past. There will still be some pressure on right side starter Max Starks to improve, as Flozell isn't a fix-all on a line that has been constantly maligned for its protection and little else has been done to upgrade the position, but at least the protection should be better than last year.
The other aspect of the line has come under some scrutiny recently as well. The Steelers have had some disappointment in the run game since their Superbowl win in 2005. They thought they had solved the problem by getting rid of aging veteran Willie Parker and replacing him with Rashard Mendenhall, but still ranked just in the bottom half of the league in the run game. Pittsburgh has built its team on having a dominant run game, and with uncertainty at the quarterback and receiver positions they will want to see better production, which starts with the line. Pittsburgh notices this as well, as they made a significant effort to sign and draft guards during the offseason. It looks to be an area coach Tomlin is dedicated to improving.
The good news on offense is that Mendenhall had a tremendous season in his first as a starter, in only twelve games starting he had 1,100 yards and a 4.6 average. If the line improves he should have at least as good a season and could take some of the pressure off the quarterback. Those sack numbers might start to go down, and more defenders in the box means an easier time for the receivers. The receiver situation has good and bad news as well. The good news comes in the form of the projected starters Mike Wallace and Hines Ward, and tight end Heath Miller. All three are considerable talents at the position and possess unique skills, they should provide a boost to whoever is behind center. The bad news comes in the form of uncertainty. Backing them up are a rookie and two veterans who have had their ups and downs. Arnaz Battle and Antwaan Randle El have seen their production drop off in recent years, the Steelers are probably hoping to see those numbers rebound this year for at least one of them.
The Big concern going in, though, is quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger will be coming back after week 4 instead of week 6, but those four games are still fairly tough. The Falcons, Titans, and Ravens are all very tough teams, and the Bucs could surprise the Steelers with their star QB riding the bench. It's not even the ability of the rest of the Steelers team or the backup quarterbacks I'm questioning, but against teams with talent in the secondary and who can score enough points to outplay a backup they could be in for dire straights. I'd say they'd be lucky to go 2-2 through those four. After Big Ben gets back things will be different. They'll look like a much better team, the question will be how they can play against Cincinnati. As I said, the Bengals swept them last year and I'm doubtful that the Steelers have improved enough to overtake them, although another sweep seems unlikely.
The defense is a bright spot for this team, they finished fifth in total defense last year. They're also getting star safety Troy Polamalu back, who should help them improve from 16th in the league against the pass and 25th in interceptions. They were again in the top five in the league in sacks and run defense, so that shouldn't be an area for much concern. Despite all that, they still managed to finish third in their division and miss the playoffs last year, and the defense won't be able to carry them all the way this year. They will be a tough team to face, but they're going to need their offense to win games when their defense gives them that chance.
I believe this is one team whose schedule really favors them. They should be the favorites going up against NFC East teams, though the Giants could give them some problems. They also have an advantage against the Raiders, but the Titans could pose a problem in the early season. What will make or break this season for them is division play. I still believe the Ravens are the favorites in this division, but the competition between he Steelers and Bengals could be fierce. The Steelers are going to have to play them hard, and if they get swept again they could be watching the playoffs from home once again.
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