Thursday, June 17, 2010

NFL 2010 Predictions

The start of the NFL season is drawing near, and predictions about where the teams will end up at the end are starting to come in. Many prognosticators, including myself, make the disclaimer that nothing is for certain at this point and that once the season starts everything is up for grabs. I can't help but think, though, that some use that as an excuse to make wild predictions about the upcoming season during the period when not much is known.

Aside from SI's Peter King, who although ranking the Bears fairly low admits his own lack of credibility in rankings due to his past predictions, there seems to be a general consensus of failure for the Bears in the upcoming season. Two analysts over at NFL.com have recently ranked the Bears 21st and 27th in the league for next season. 21st I can understand, we were an underachieving team last year and we still have questions at some key positions, namely cornerback and safety, and we still have a lot to prove, but 27th? Lets put it this way, on the first list the Bears were ranked below teams such as the Texans, the Titans, the Dolphins, the Steelers, and the Falcons, not a true slouch among them unless you want to bring up the Titans' disastrous first half, and no team with a 2K rusher can be THAT bad. The second list ranked the Chiefs, Raiders, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Broncos better than the Bears. Can you believe that? The entire AFC West, which has been disastrous in the past, is expected to do better than the Chicago Bears. I do believe this is going to be the season of upward momentum for a lot of teams, including the Raiders and the Lions, but also including the Bears.

I'll admit I have my doubts. Is Mike Martz going to be successful with his new system? Is first-time coordinator Rod Marinelli the right man for the job. I still say this organization should have gone to Perry Fewell, gotten down on their knees, and begged him to come to Chicago. Still, we can't be as bad as people are saying we'll be, not even possible. Word is from training camp that Matt Forte looks better than he did his rookie year, and splitting the workload with another 1,000 yard back like Chester Taylor couldn't hurt. Zack Bowman is doing well enough to be trusted to take on some of the NFL's elite receivers, a privilege he lost last year to Charles Tillman.

The worst criticism, though, I think is aimed at the two groups least deserving of it, the offensive line and receiving corps. There is a lot of great young talent along this line including our new star tackle Chris Williams and the heir apparent to perennial Pro-Bowler Olen Kreutz, Josh Beekman. What people forget is that this line played its best at the end of the season against opponents like the Vikings, where they held an end like Jared Allen to no sacks and three tackles. It's the same story with the receivers, Aromashodu was the league leader in receiving that week against the Vikings in a spectacular performance, and yet league analysts call our group of receivers weak. Hester, in two seasons, has averaged over 700 yards a season, and while I'll agree that he's not the number one that Lovie Smith so adamantly believes he is, he is a talented receiver. Between the speedy and reliable Knox, the possession specialist Bennett, the unknown commodity of Juaquin Iglesias, and the extremely talented (and in my opinion only true number one on the Bears' roster) Aromashodu, this receiving corps should surprise a lot of people. In Lovie's first couple of season he said he liked playing as an underdog team, I think that type of mentality will combine with teh talent on this team to surprise a lot of people. Personally, I don't like making predictions until closer to the pre-season. I'll announce my first rankings closer to the start of exhibition games, but I'll be going over the strengths and weaknesses of all the teams by division. First up, the AFC West.

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