AFC West Part Two: The Silver and Black Attack is Back

Oakland Raiders

2009 Record: 5-11, Third in Division

2009 Playoff Record: Did Not Qualify
Key Losses: Justin Fargas, Javon Walker, Gerard Warren, Kirk Morrison, JaMarcus Russell
Key Additions: Rolando McClain, Lamarr Houston, Jason Campbell


Analysts are predicting a lot of upward momentum for AFC West teams, and this is the one instance where I strongly agree with them.  Despite putting up sub-par results, the Raiders have kept a very talented core consisting of a good mix of young and old players.  They also had a silently decent draft, unlike in the past where they would select fast players that many say they could have had much later.  This year they took a young and highly touted linebacker to reinforce their already talented linebacking corps and make up for the loss of Kirk Morrison, who they turned into their fifth-round pick, Jacoby Ford.  With the rest of their picks they reinforced other defensive positions and the offensive line, which could stand to improve after allowing 49 sacks last season.  However they did help the team accumulate over 1,700 rushing yards and a 4.1 YPC average.  In addition, maligned ex Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell had a habit of hanging on to the football too long, a habit that new acquisition Jason Campbell should break.  If the offensive line can begin to mesh, then Jason Campbell should have a good chance to improve their offense.


However, Campbell will need some help if he's going to get this offense over the hump.  Losing Justin Fargas, one of their many backs who had a habit of underachieving, could be big.  Fargas was no superstar, but he had some decent numbers and consistency, something his replacements might lack.  Michael Bennett has slightly more yards and a slightly better average than Fargas over about the same period of time, but has been prone to fumbling.  Rock Cartwright has been good at hanging onto the ball, but has put up significantly fewer yards playing the backup role to a true featured back in Clinton Portis.  Whether either of these backs can make up for what Fargas brought to the team remains to be seen.  That also leaves the question of their prize draft choice from three years ago, Darren McFadden, and if he can really function as a star back.  He has been underwhelming at best so far, and if he does not step up to fill the featured role this running game could be as dismal as it was last season.  That would not bode well for Jason Campbell, who has proven he can be effective behind a good line and running game in Washington, but who has struggled without offensive support.


The receivers probably aren't as big an issue as the run game, after all Campbell has succeeded in Washington without any standouts.  However they will need to improve, if they continue to drop passes and blow routes like they did last season then Campbell stands no chance.  Losing Javon Walker was big, as they have no true possession receiver now.  They continue to conform to the idea of fielding a speed-oriented corps, and neglecting receivers who might not run as fast but can make spectacular catches could hurt them.  Just a reminder, TO is still out there.  I know many think having him around all the young players could be a detriment, but he performed well last year in Buffalo and is exactly the type of receiver they need to complement speed demons Darrius Heyward-Bey, Johnnie Lee Higgins, and Jacoby Ford.  They still have an outstanding tight end who can fill that role in Zack Miller, but as was shown last season he can't carry the receiving corps on his own.


The biggest plus for this team is its defense.  Perennial Pro-Bowler Nnamdi Asomugha is back and heading a secondary that quietly made its way into the top ten in the league in terms of pass defense and helped secure wins over the Bengals, Broncos, Steelers, and Eagles last season.  The problem lies in their rush defense, where they ranked 29th in the league last season and gave up almost 2,500 yards.  They didn't make any big moves on defense this offseason, instead opting to make incremental ones and secure key positions.  They're hoping for immediate production from their top two picks, inside tackle Lamarr Houston and inside linebacker Rolando McClain.  They'll need immediate production if they want to win, especially against the run.  The success of this defense, though, rests on the front four.  Without good run support and pressure on the quarterback they won't be able to win games and their hopes for a chance at a Wild Card could be dashed.  A strong secondary and weak run support could work a bit to their advantage when it comes to their schedule, both the AFC South and NFC West have their share of pass heavy teams with weak rushing attacks.  San Diego and Denver also could be struggling to find their running legs, but the Raiders are now in a division that features a back who has put up five straight 1,000 yard seasons in Thomas Jones.  In addition, their swing games are against the Steelers and Dolphins, two teams that rely heavily on the run.  They should be able to improve to .500 even if they don't solve their problems with run defense, if they can get veterans Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour to lead some of their younger linemen and noticeably improve, than they should surprise a lot of folks who have them pegged as a bottom-feeder for next season.


The key for Oakland?  Youth.  Tom Cable is in a bad position, if he doesn't win now he could be gone.  It would be a shame if he didn't save his job because if he's gone next season whoever gets his job will have inherited a far better team than the one he did.  Another guaranteed season and Cable could look like a genius, but he's on the hot seat now.  In order for him to keep his job these young players need to play hard now.  Jason Campbell, Darren McFadden, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and their top draft picks will all need to play at a pro level out of the gates, and they will need their veterans along the defensive and offensive lines to play solid enough to keep them in it.  There's a decent chance for that, though, and this could be the year where the Raiders turn things around.  At the very least they should improve their record, make .500, and get a couple more wins in the division.