NFL Week Seventeen Thoughts

There's plenty going on in the NFL this time of year, so I'll be adding some year-end commentary where applicable.

Atlanta Falcons def. Carolina Panthers

No surprise on the win by Atlanta.  Carolina is a bit of a surprise this year as one of the worst teams.  Yes they had a quarterback carousel, but only two seasons removed from being division champs and posting a respectable record last season, the sharp rate of decline is a surprise.  Of course injuries and the departure of key free agents contributed to this decline, which is also probably a large part of the reason why John Fox is still a highly sought-after coach.  Still, with talented players like Beason still on the team one has to wonder if the worst record in the league is going to hinder Fox's chances of getting a head coaching job.  He was probably already on the way out before the season started, but a record like that can't bode well for him despite all the talk of him being in contention for multiple coaching positions.

I was a bit surprised at the Falcons being as dominant as they have been, and a large part of that is because their defense has become so solid after being a point of weakness last year.  I also think, though, that the Saints were only hindered due to injury and would have taken the division barring the loss of some of their top players.

Baltimore Ravens def. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals really came on near the end of the season and started to look like they did last season.  Part of that decline is the play of Carson Palmer, but that defense which looked so talented a year ago looked completely flat this year.  I can't come up with any other reason than coaching, when you're playing at that level one year and you get your talented players back from injury the next then you should go in completely the opposite direction than what the Bengals did.  I like what Lewis has done, though, and I can't say I completely disagree with the decision to retain him.  He's now on the hot seat in a very competitive division, though.

The Ravens have been up and down all season.  That offense hasn't been anywhere near as high-octane as it was supposed to be, but it has gotten the job done.  The defense that everyone annually predicts will decline because of the age of the starters impressed yet again this season, and despite some of them being ugly the Ravens are getting wins.  I don't know that they're going to be as dangerous in the postseason as I had initially predicted, though.

Pittsburgh Steelers def. Cleveland Browns

What a way to end the season and enter the playoffs.  I always think teams are better going into the postseason on a high note, and this bodes well for Pittsburgh.  They've also been up and down this season, this defense has been exposed when Polamalu isn't playing.  What's surprising, though, is how they can win games despite poor offensive play when he's on the field.  They'll be dangerous in the playoffs.

The Browns look pretty promising.  Peyton Hillis was a nice acquisition, and they're starting to get a good group of talented players at positions like wideout and linebacker.  Another good draft and they should be in a good position to win next year, even despite losing their coach.  I've never liked Mangini, not since he was in New York.  I disagree with the way he ran the Browns from the start, and it's good they have Holmgren there running the show.  I think the Browns would do well to get him as their coach, but that doesn't seem too likely.  Still, whomever they get will probably be an upgrade and should have a good group of players to work with.  This division could be wide open next year.

Detroit Lions def. Minnesota Vikings

Speaking of a team that's looking good, Detroit could be very dangerous in a very short amount of time.  Hell, given their drought I'll even root for them to win the division and the Superbowl next year, and they very well could.  Their defensive line has been dangerous, and Suh should be a valuable part of that team for years to come.  They had an amazing offseason last year, and if they can do half as good this year I think they'll be favorites to take the North.

Which means we could have a new bottom-feeder.  Les Frasier is a nice guy and I hope he does well, but this team could be in rebuilding mode at a bad time.  They have a lot of ageing veterans on their team, and if they don't acquire a lot of talent fast, including a starting quarterback, they could be looking at a few years in last place.

Oakland Raiders def. Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland has been so impressive in their wins, which makes me wonder why they lost some of the games that they did.  I also wonder why a coach who has posted a better record each year and swept the division is getting canned, that is a huge step backwards for the Raiders.  Just as fans start to see light at the end of the tunnel, Cable gets fired and they're back to square one.  It would be different if there were a lot of talented coaches available, but right now I see a high demand for the few talented coaches that are there.  Even with a less impressive season Cable probably would have been the right man for the job, the way he got his team to where they are now should have secured that position for him.  People are saying he could be in demand, but I have my doubts if he would be a fit anywhere else.

New England Patriots def. Miami Dolphins

The Pats are another team that is rolling into the playoffs.  They looked almost mortal at the beginning of the season, I'm amazed at the turnaround they've had in recent weeks.  Belichick definitely deserves 99% of the credit for this team's success, he is one of the winningest coaches in this league no matter who he puts on the field.

The Dolphins decided to keep Tony Sporano, and that's probably a good idea.  This season was a definite disappointment, but the lack of available coaches should be a bigger concern for the Dolphins.  Sporano is a known asset and they should be more concerned with keeping up their recent success than gambling on a new coach, especially with all the young players they have.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay has been uber-impressive this season, even with a banged-up, young defense they came one win away from the post-season.  I would have loved to see them make it, hell I would have loved to see the Giants make it, but this team has promise.  Every year a different team wins the NFC South, next year will probably be no different.

The Saints have struggled at times, but they're a good team.  Their running backs are dangerous, and Brees is one of the best in the league when he gets hot.  I would not want to face them in the post-season, at home or on the road.

New York Jets def. Buffalo Bills

It was good for the Jets to not only win here but to make a statement, that momentum could prove to be a difference-maker int he playoffs.  They've surprised me in some of the games they've lost this year, but they've also shown an ability to bounce back against good teams.  They should not be counted out in any game they play.

The Bills have really surprised me, I thought they were going to go winless and they ended up getting four wins in the span of six weeks.  I thought Chan Gailey was a goner from the start, but there may be promise for him yet.  What he needs more than anything is a good draft so that he can get the right players for his system, then this team should start to see some improvement.

San Diego Chargers def. Denver Broncos

San Diego is one team that I thought should have fired their coach.  Norv Turner has made the playoffs consistently, but has never gone very far at all once there.  Now he's had a team with a lot of talent and completely missed the playoffs inside a weak division.  When your quarterback is putting up the numbers that Phillip Rivers is and your team is still losing, there is a problem.  Keeping him on only makes the problem worse, Rivers is getting older and it would be better to get a new coach in so that his system has time to develop.

The Broncos are a huge disappointment.  In McDaniels' first season everyone was calling me out while they were winning because I had predicted he would crash and burn, then they missed the playoffs and spent this past season losing, and now I get to say I told you so.  I will say that I think Orton's numbers are a side-effect of McDaniels' offense (no disrespect to Orton), but you have to be more than a one trick pony to be an NFL head coach.  The talent side of this team was out of whack as soon as McDaniels stepped through he door, and what they need more than anything is for someone to restore sanity to this team.  They never should have fired Shanahan, and now they could be in a rough position with so few viable options for the coaching position.

Green Bay Packers def. Chicago Bears

What a tough loss for the Bears.  Going into the postseason with momentum is important, and it would have been great if they could have knocked the Packers out of the postseason.  Still, I thought their defense played impressively, aside from a couple big plays.  This past week all everyone was talking about was the Green Bay offense, how they were going to pass all over Chicago, and we held them to ten points.  The offense was disappointing, but I think if we meet again that Martz and company will have some new tricks up their sleeve.

Green Bay continues to be the media darling, I think some of these commentators need to just suck a Packers player off already and get it over with.  The Green Bay offense continues to not impress me, most of their big plays are a result of defensive players missing tackles or assignments and they have no running game whatsoever.  Their defense is what was impressive last Sunday, but we still should have been able to adjust.  Their coverage of our receivers was the biggest key to why they won, but key drops were also a big part of that.  Overall, though, I think it was a game we should have won.  To quote a famous coach whose name I can't remember, "We knew who they were and we let them off the hook!"

Houston Texans def. Jacksonville Jaguars

Isn't that just like me to swear off a team for disappointing me and then have them win a meaningless game at the end of the season.  The Texans had a hugely disappointing season after starting off so well, and there is no reason that one defensive player should make that much of a difference when he's not on the field.  No offense to DeMeco Ryans, but the defensive coaches need to find a way to make up for his loss when he's not playing.  I think Gary Kubiak should have been fired for this season, he's been ont he hot seat forever and he never seems to get canned despite disappointing season after disappointing season.  Hiring Wade Phillips could help, but his defense struggled mightily in Dallas this year as well.  Next season could be another long season for the Texans.

Jacksonville is taking its fans on a roller-coaster ride.  I was dumbfounded when I saw Indianapolis losing tot he Titans and the Jaguars blowing that opportunity by trailing to the Texans.  You would think that with the season on the line the Jaguars would play like there's no tomorrow, but they lost to the Texans of all teams.  Indianapolis came a field goal away from gifting them a chance to the post-season, and it wouldn't have mattered because they blew it.  I'm thinking that Del Rio should be gone after this season.  Like Kubiak, he's had one chance too many and come up short too many times.  Unlike most other coaches I've mentioned, the Jaguars have a 4-3 personnel and there are plenty of 4-3 coaches out there.  I don't know that someone like Tom Cable or John Fox wouldn't be a better fit in Jacksonville.

Indianapolis Colts def. Tennessee Titans

Well, the Titans finally found their passing game, a bit too late if you ask me.  I still think they need either a running quarterback or some new offensive weapons combined with some new offensive ideas to be dangerous again.  If it's a choice between Young and Fisher, though, Fisher is the right choice hands-down.

The Colts won, but that's not exactly how I'd like to enter the postseason.  We've got a rematch from last year coming up, and the Colts' problems could all come to a head.  Still, they've improved in recent weeks and the bears gave them the blueprints to beating the Jets with a 4-3, it should be a great game.

Dallas Cowboys def. Philadelphia Eagles

Philly could be in trouble going forward, although I think they had great success against he Packers when Vick went in during the second half of their game earlier in the season and they have a decent chance at getting revenge.  It really has been a great season for the team and for Vick especially, and things are looking up for them.

Dallas was always better than their record indicated, it seemed like Phillips just lost control of the team.  Jason Garrett has done a great job with them, and I expect them to be a dangerous team again next year.

San Francisco 49ers def. Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco continues to confound me, as do the Cardinals.  I guess Alex Smith has finally found his form, during the last few weeks of the season.  I think what they need more than anything is a great coach, and they should try to land one of the big names out there right now.  Jim Harbaugh would be an excellent fit.

The Cardinals, simply, need a quarterback.  Their defense is underrated, Ken Whisenhunt has kept them competitive despite what the record would say.  Their defense relied solely on Kurt Warner, though, and they need someone who can claim to be a legitimate starting quarterback to have a chance.  Fortunately, there should be some options available this offseason.  They'd also do well to solidify their line and get their running game back on track.

New York Giants def. Washington Redskins

The Redskins are on the cusp.  I know a lot of people don't give them any respect, but they are so close they can feel it.  Injuries really hurt this team, but their primary concern has to be getting better players on offense.  Ryan Torrain was a great find and he and Portis should compliment each other nicely.  However, they need better receivers and linemen and they need them fast.  Grossman could run this team successfully, but he needs protection.  McNabb would probably be a better option, but they seem to be at an impasse with him and he needs better weapons at receiver.  Their defense looks old, but they kept them in contention in most games.  Seven of their wins were by six points or less, and their offense struggled consistently.  If they can just jump that last hurdle on offense then their defense should be good enough for them to win.

The Giants are a disappointment, though injuries definitely played a part in that.  Talk of firing Tom Coughlin is ridiculous, he's done a great job with this team.

Seattle Seahawks def. St. Louis Rams

What I believe even less than the fact that a 7-9 team will host a playoff game is that the Rams lost to the Seahawks with the season on the line.  This season will be a success for Pete Carroll, but I would not be satisfied with it if I were him.  He still has some large holes at key positions, and he needs to approach the offseason as a chance to get a lot better no matter how well he does in the playoffs.

The Rams still have problems, that much is obvious.  Sam Bradford had a tremendous rookie year, though, probably the best for a quarterback in recent memory.  Their defense also impressed statistically, if not in certain key situations.  Spagnuolo bought himself some time and proved he can coach a team, but he has to deliver next year.  He's on the hot seat, and the expectation is probably 9-7 or better.  They can probably do it, though, as they have a lot of good parts in place and only need to supplement them in the offseason.