The Championship games are here, and the Bears are playing for a trip to Dallas!
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
This could be the biggest Bears-Packers game ever, the first time they've met in the playoffs since 1941. The Packers are on a hot streak, but I sincerely think this is the Bears' time to shine. Everyone's been raving about the Packers since forever, but the Bears have beat them out in a lot of statistical regular season categories. The Bears are also ahead in playoff stats in most areas, including total offense. Cutler and Forte are also getting hot at the right time, and I think the time is right for Lovie Smith's second trip to the Superbowl.
Prediction: Bears
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't know why everyone seems to think the Steelers are locks for this game, the Jets shut down Tom Brady, I think they can shut down Big Ben. The Jets executed a successful gameplan against the Steelers earlier this season, and I think they can do so again. Both teams will probably go nowhere on the ground so it will come down to quarterbacks. On that count, I do have more faith in Roethlisberger then Sanchez, but I like the Jets' defense better than the Steelers.
Prediction: Jets
Sunday, January 23, 2011
NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Thoughts
Wild week in the playoffs, and I didn't do too well. I think the thing about picking in the playoffs is that all the teams there deserve to be there, and so many times the games come down to intangibles that are so hard to predict. You would think, for example, that the Falcons would have the edge in that category playing at home after a bye, but you would be mistaken.
Pittsburgh Steelers def. Baltimore Ravens
This is one of those times when nothing I said was incorrect except the final outcome. Turnovers killed this game for the Ravens, they knew who the Steelers were and they let them off the hook.
Green Bay Packers def. Atlanta Falcons
The biggest surprise of this game was the lack of pressure on the quarterback by Atlanta, and conversely that the Green Bay line held up. Funny that the Atlanta team I was predicting all year finally showed up, only when they were playing the Packers.
Chicago Bears def. Seattle Seahawks
I am finally one hundred percent, completely right about a playoff game, including the outcome. The comeback near the end was a little disconcerting, but the Bears took care of the worst team in history to make the playoffs.
New York Jets def. New England Patriots
Rex Ryan really has Belichick's number, I guess.
Pittsburgh Steelers def. Baltimore Ravens
This is one of those times when nothing I said was incorrect except the final outcome. Turnovers killed this game for the Ravens, they knew who the Steelers were and they let them off the hook.
Green Bay Packers def. Atlanta Falcons
The biggest surprise of this game was the lack of pressure on the quarterback by Atlanta, and conversely that the Green Bay line held up. Funny that the Atlanta team I was predicting all year finally showed up, only when they were playing the Packers.
Chicago Bears def. Seattle Seahawks
I am finally one hundred percent, completely right about a playoff game, including the outcome. The comeback near the end was a little disconcerting, but the Bears took care of the worst team in history to make the playoffs.
New York Jets def. New England Patriots
Rex Ryan really has Belichick's number, I guess.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Predictions
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
I was impressed by Baltimore's win last week. I know a lot of people are down on KC, but they were a good team this season. The Steelers are also impressive, but mostly because of Polamalu. Without him they have struggled, especially their leader Big Ben. Flacco has also had issues this season, but with the Ravens riding the wave from this last win I feel they are in the better position to make a splash. This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Ravens
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay has had some pretty easy wins as of late, I think the trend stops here. Atlanta's pass rush is great this season, and I'd wager the Packers' line will have trouble keeping them at bay. The defense will definitely pose more of a challenge than Philadelphia's, and I doubt we'll see anywhere near the rushing success by Green Bay that we did last week. Michael Turner is also one of the hottest runners in the league right now, and Matt Ryan has what it takes to lead the birds to a conference game. Finally, Atlanta never loses at home, I think the Falcons have a clear upper hand in this one.
Prediction: Falcons
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
There are games that, as a fan, you know could not have been won. The Patriots game against the Bears this season comes to mind. Then there are others that absolutely kill you because you know they could have been won, like the game against the Seahawks. Don't get me wrong, it was an ugly game by the Bears, but an ugly game they still could have won. Nothing makes me angrier than seeing corner blitzes work on a consistent basis like they did against the Bears, pass to the blitzing side for Christ's sake! This is a different Bears team, though, and I think Mike Martz will have a few new wrinkles for the Seahawks to deal with. Lynch and Williams present matchup problems, rushing defense has been a strength for the Bears yet Lynch is one of the few backs who can do damage against our defense. Still, I doubt we'll see a repeat performance by this Seahawks offense.
Prediction: Bears
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
I talked about Baltimore being hot, well despite having a week off New England is even hotter. Brady is a man on a mission right now, and rookie ballhawk Devin McCourty could present real problems for green quarterback Mark Sanchez. The Jets will have tight coverage, but if anyone can get through it Tom Brady can.
Prediction: Patriots
I was impressed by Baltimore's win last week. I know a lot of people are down on KC, but they were a good team this season. The Steelers are also impressive, but mostly because of Polamalu. Without him they have struggled, especially their leader Big Ben. Flacco has also had issues this season, but with the Ravens riding the wave from this last win I feel they are in the better position to make a splash. This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Ravens
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay has had some pretty easy wins as of late, I think the trend stops here. Atlanta's pass rush is great this season, and I'd wager the Packers' line will have trouble keeping them at bay. The defense will definitely pose more of a challenge than Philadelphia's, and I doubt we'll see anywhere near the rushing success by Green Bay that we did last week. Michael Turner is also one of the hottest runners in the league right now, and Matt Ryan has what it takes to lead the birds to a conference game. Finally, Atlanta never loses at home, I think the Falcons have a clear upper hand in this one.
Prediction: Falcons
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
There are games that, as a fan, you know could not have been won. The Patriots game against the Bears this season comes to mind. Then there are others that absolutely kill you because you know they could have been won, like the game against the Seahawks. Don't get me wrong, it was an ugly game by the Bears, but an ugly game they still could have won. Nothing makes me angrier than seeing corner blitzes work on a consistent basis like they did against the Bears, pass to the blitzing side for Christ's sake! This is a different Bears team, though, and I think Mike Martz will have a few new wrinkles for the Seahawks to deal with. Lynch and Williams present matchup problems, rushing defense has been a strength for the Bears yet Lynch is one of the few backs who can do damage against our defense. Still, I doubt we'll see a repeat performance by this Seahawks offense.
Prediction: Bears
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
I talked about Baltimore being hot, well despite having a week off New England is even hotter. Brady is a man on a mission right now, and rookie ballhawk Devin McCourty could present real problems for green quarterback Mark Sanchez. The Jets will have tight coverage, but if anyone can get through it Tom Brady can.
Prediction: Patriots
NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Thoughts
Wild first round with a lot of unexpected turns, here's what I think:
Seattle Seahawks def. New Orleans Saints
This was a bit of a shocker to me. As I said, the Seahawks have gotten torched by the pass this season and Drew Brees went to town on them. What I didn't expect was that the New Orleans defense was going to be so porous against both the pass and the run. Seattle looked impressive in some regards, but in the words of Denny Green I think New Orleans let them off the hook.
New York Jets def. Indianapolis Colts
I love it when I hit on all the right marks.
Green Bay Packers def. Philadelphia Eagles
I think this is another game where the losers didn''t put their best effort forward. Injuries have something to do with it, and this has to make you wonder if Vick can continue to be an effective NFL quarterback for a full season without injuries. DeSean Jackson is similarly struggling on that front, and without those two this team will struggle. I was very surprised that Green Bay was able to run the ball the way they did, they shouldn't expect similar success against Atlanta. James Starks is not the back everyone makes him out to be, this one-time performance against a questionable defense could be distracting people who are too short-sighted to consider he might be a flash in the pan.
Baltimore Ravens def. Kansas City Chiefs
Everyone's jumping on Matt Cassel for the loss, but this is a hungry Baltimore defense. When turnovers happen the mentality is that the offensive players are at fault, and while that's true in many situations in others it's just a very hungry defense. Baltimore could be dangerous this post-season.
Seattle Seahawks def. New Orleans Saints
This was a bit of a shocker to me. As I said, the Seahawks have gotten torched by the pass this season and Drew Brees went to town on them. What I didn't expect was that the New Orleans defense was going to be so porous against both the pass and the run. Seattle looked impressive in some regards, but in the words of Denny Green I think New Orleans let them off the hook.
New York Jets def. Indianapolis Colts
I love it when I hit on all the right marks.
Green Bay Packers def. Philadelphia Eagles
I think this is another game where the losers didn''t put their best effort forward. Injuries have something to do with it, and this has to make you wonder if Vick can continue to be an effective NFL quarterback for a full season without injuries. DeSean Jackson is similarly struggling on that front, and without those two this team will struggle. I was very surprised that Green Bay was able to run the ball the way they did, they shouldn't expect similar success against Atlanta. James Starks is not the back everyone makes him out to be, this one-time performance against a questionable defense could be distracting people who are too short-sighted to consider he might be a flash in the pan.
Baltimore Ravens def. Kansas City Chiefs
Everyone's jumping on Matt Cassel for the loss, but this is a hungry Baltimore defense. When turnovers happen the mentality is that the offensive players are at fault, and while that's true in many situations in others it's just a very hungry defense. Baltimore could be dangerous this post-season.
Friday, January 7, 2011
NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Prediction
Playoffs? Playoffs!?! Yes, Playoffs!!! With the Bears this year!!!
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
There are games where I need to go to the stats and games where I don't, this game falls into the latter category. The Seahawks get torched by the pass, the Saints torch people with the pass. This is the matchup from hell for Pete Carroll.
Prediction: Saints
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
This is going to be a great game, game of the week material in fact (no sleepers or upsets in the playoffs). First the Jets, they're third in the league in both total defense and rushing defense, and I doubt the Colts will have much success running the ball even with the return of their featured backs. Jets are sixth in the league in passing defense, and in passing touchdowns allowed. If anyone can stop Peyton Manning it's them, the key will be if their defensive backs can cover the Colts receivers.
On the other side, the Colts have struggled against the run. This is a perfect matchup for Rex Ryan, whose Jets runners are very effective at pounding the ball. The Colts have gotten better against the pass and are rushing the passer effectively, but I see their defense struggling too much in this game to win. What do I always say wins Superbowls, despite what others will tell you? Defense and rushing.
Prediction: Jets
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
I'm going to go back to week one for this one, Packers at Eagles. The Packers are up 27-10 in the third quarter when Michael Vick comes in and leads the Eagles to unanswered ten points and comes within a hair of sending the game into overtime. It was the rebirth of Michael Vick against a Packers defense that has since sustained heavy injuries. I think Vick is going to put the hurt on the Eagles this Sunday the way he would have if they had started him in week one.
Prediction: Eagles
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs' resurgence this season has been pretty amazing, I had high expectations for them to being with and I didn't expect they'd make it into the playoffs, much less win their division. Both of these teams have the capability to win, and both have struggled at times. However, I think Baltimore has the experience to win and is coming off a win in the regular season finale. They should have the momentum, and that will turn out to be the difference
Prediction: Ravens
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
There are games where I need to go to the stats and games where I don't, this game falls into the latter category. The Seahawks get torched by the pass, the Saints torch people with the pass. This is the matchup from hell for Pete Carroll.
Prediction: Saints
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
This is going to be a great game, game of the week material in fact (no sleepers or upsets in the playoffs). First the Jets, they're third in the league in both total defense and rushing defense, and I doubt the Colts will have much success running the ball even with the return of their featured backs. Jets are sixth in the league in passing defense, and in passing touchdowns allowed. If anyone can stop Peyton Manning it's them, the key will be if their defensive backs can cover the Colts receivers.
On the other side, the Colts have struggled against the run. This is a perfect matchup for Rex Ryan, whose Jets runners are very effective at pounding the ball. The Colts have gotten better against the pass and are rushing the passer effectively, but I see their defense struggling too much in this game to win. What do I always say wins Superbowls, despite what others will tell you? Defense and rushing.
Prediction: Jets
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
I'm going to go back to week one for this one, Packers at Eagles. The Packers are up 27-10 in the third quarter when Michael Vick comes in and leads the Eagles to unanswered ten points and comes within a hair of sending the game into overtime. It was the rebirth of Michael Vick against a Packers defense that has since sustained heavy injuries. I think Vick is going to put the hurt on the Eagles this Sunday the way he would have if they had started him in week one.
Prediction: Eagles
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs' resurgence this season has been pretty amazing, I had high expectations for them to being with and I didn't expect they'd make it into the playoffs, much less win their division. Both of these teams have the capability to win, and both have struggled at times. However, I think Baltimore has the experience to win and is coming off a win in the regular season finale. They should have the momentum, and that will turn out to be the difference
Prediction: Ravens
NFL Week Seventeen Thoughts
There's plenty going on in the NFL this time of year, so I'll be adding some year-end commentary where applicable.
Atlanta Falcons def. Carolina Panthers
No surprise on the win by Atlanta. Carolina is a bit of a surprise this year as one of the worst teams. Yes they had a quarterback carousel, but only two seasons removed from being division champs and posting a respectable record last season, the sharp rate of decline is a surprise. Of course injuries and the departure of key free agents contributed to this decline, which is also probably a large part of the reason why John Fox is still a highly sought-after coach. Still, with talented players like Beason still on the team one has to wonder if the worst record in the league is going to hinder Fox's chances of getting a head coaching job. He was probably already on the way out before the season started, but a record like that can't bode well for him despite all the talk of him being in contention for multiple coaching positions.
I was a bit surprised at the Falcons being as dominant as they have been, and a large part of that is because their defense has become so solid after being a point of weakness last year. I also think, though, that the Saints were only hindered due to injury and would have taken the division barring the loss of some of their top players.
Baltimore Ravens def. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals really came on near the end of the season and started to look like they did last season. Part of that decline is the play of Carson Palmer, but that defense which looked so talented a year ago looked completely flat this year. I can't come up with any other reason than coaching, when you're playing at that level one year and you get your talented players back from injury the next then you should go in completely the opposite direction than what the Bengals did. I like what Lewis has done, though, and I can't say I completely disagree with the decision to retain him. He's now on the hot seat in a very competitive division, though.
The Ravens have been up and down all season. That offense hasn't been anywhere near as high-octane as it was supposed to be, but it has gotten the job done. The defense that everyone annually predicts will decline because of the age of the starters impressed yet again this season, and despite some of them being ugly the Ravens are getting wins. I don't know that they're going to be as dangerous in the postseason as I had initially predicted, though.
Pittsburgh Steelers def. Cleveland Browns
What a way to end the season and enter the playoffs. I always think teams are better going into the postseason on a high note, and this bodes well for Pittsburgh. They've also been up and down this season, this defense has been exposed when Polamalu isn't playing. What's surprising, though, is how they can win games despite poor offensive play when he's on the field. They'll be dangerous in the playoffs.
The Browns look pretty promising. Peyton Hillis was a nice acquisition, and they're starting to get a good group of talented players at positions like wideout and linebacker. Another good draft and they should be in a good position to win next year, even despite losing their coach. I've never liked Mangini, not since he was in New York. I disagree with the way he ran the Browns from the start, and it's good they have Holmgren there running the show. I think the Browns would do well to get him as their coach, but that doesn't seem too likely. Still, whomever they get will probably be an upgrade and should have a good group of players to work with. This division could be wide open next year.
Detroit Lions def. Minnesota Vikings
Speaking of a team that's looking good, Detroit could be very dangerous in a very short amount of time. Hell, given their drought I'll even root for them to win the division and the Superbowl next year, and they very well could. Their defensive line has been dangerous, and Suh should be a valuable part of that team for years to come. They had an amazing offseason last year, and if they can do half as good this year I think they'll be favorites to take the North.
Which means we could have a new bottom-feeder. Les Frasier is a nice guy and I hope he does well, but this team could be in rebuilding mode at a bad time. They have a lot of ageing veterans on their team, and if they don't acquire a lot of talent fast, including a starting quarterback, they could be looking at a few years in last place.
Oakland Raiders def. Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland has been so impressive in their wins, which makes me wonder why they lost some of the games that they did. I also wonder why a coach who has posted a better record each year and swept the division is getting canned, that is a huge step backwards for the Raiders. Just as fans start to see light at the end of the tunnel, Cable gets fired and they're back to square one. It would be different if there were a lot of talented coaches available, but right now I see a high demand for the few talented coaches that are there. Even with a less impressive season Cable probably would have been the right man for the job, the way he got his team to where they are now should have secured that position for him. People are saying he could be in demand, but I have my doubts if he would be a fit anywhere else.
New England Patriots def. Miami Dolphins
The Pats are another team that is rolling into the playoffs. They looked almost mortal at the beginning of the season, I'm amazed at the turnaround they've had in recent weeks. Belichick definitely deserves 99% of the credit for this team's success, he is one of the winningest coaches in this league no matter who he puts on the field.
The Dolphins decided to keep Tony Sporano, and that's probably a good idea. This season was a definite disappointment, but the lack of available coaches should be a bigger concern for the Dolphins. Sporano is a known asset and they should be more concerned with keeping up their recent success than gambling on a new coach, especially with all the young players they have.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay has been uber-impressive this season, even with a banged-up, young defense they came one win away from the post-season. I would have loved to see them make it, hell I would have loved to see the Giants make it, but this team has promise. Every year a different team wins the NFC South, next year will probably be no different.
The Saints have struggled at times, but they're a good team. Their running backs are dangerous, and Brees is one of the best in the league when he gets hot. I would not want to face them in the post-season, at home or on the road.
New York Jets def. Buffalo Bills
It was good for the Jets to not only win here but to make a statement, that momentum could prove to be a difference-maker int he playoffs. They've surprised me in some of the games they've lost this year, but they've also shown an ability to bounce back against good teams. They should not be counted out in any game they play.
The Bills have really surprised me, I thought they were going to go winless and they ended up getting four wins in the span of six weeks. I thought Chan Gailey was a goner from the start, but there may be promise for him yet. What he needs more than anything is a good draft so that he can get the right players for his system, then this team should start to see some improvement.
San Diego Chargers def. Denver Broncos
San Diego is one team that I thought should have fired their coach. Norv Turner has made the playoffs consistently, but has never gone very far at all once there. Now he's had a team with a lot of talent and completely missed the playoffs inside a weak division. When your quarterback is putting up the numbers that Phillip Rivers is and your team is still losing, there is a problem. Keeping him on only makes the problem worse, Rivers is getting older and it would be better to get a new coach in so that his system has time to develop.
The Broncos are a huge disappointment. In McDaniels' first season everyone was calling me out while they were winning because I had predicted he would crash and burn, then they missed the playoffs and spent this past season losing, and now I get to say I told you so. I will say that I think Orton's numbers are a side-effect of McDaniels' offense (no disrespect to Orton), but you have to be more than a one trick pony to be an NFL head coach. The talent side of this team was out of whack as soon as McDaniels stepped through he door, and what they need more than anything is for someone to restore sanity to this team. They never should have fired Shanahan, and now they could be in a rough position with so few viable options for the coaching position.
Green Bay Packers def. Chicago Bears
What a tough loss for the Bears. Going into the postseason with momentum is important, and it would have been great if they could have knocked the Packers out of the postseason. Still, I thought their defense played impressively, aside from a couple big plays. This past week all everyone was talking about was the Green Bay offense, how they were going to pass all over Chicago, and we held them to ten points. The offense was disappointing, but I think if we meet again that Martz and company will have some new tricks up their sleeve.
Green Bay continues to be the media darling, I think some of these commentators need to just suck a Packers player off already and get it over with. The Green Bay offense continues to not impress me, most of their big plays are a result of defensive players missing tackles or assignments and they have no running game whatsoever. Their defense is what was impressive last Sunday, but we still should have been able to adjust. Their coverage of our receivers was the biggest key to why they won, but key drops were also a big part of that. Overall, though, I think it was a game we should have won. To quote a famous coach whose name I can't remember, "We knew who they were and we let them off the hook!"
Houston Texans def. Jacksonville Jaguars
Isn't that just like me to swear off a team for disappointing me and then have them win a meaningless game at the end of the season. The Texans had a hugely disappointing season after starting off so well, and there is no reason that one defensive player should make that much of a difference when he's not on the field. No offense to DeMeco Ryans, but the defensive coaches need to find a way to make up for his loss when he's not playing. I think Gary Kubiak should have been fired for this season, he's been ont he hot seat forever and he never seems to get canned despite disappointing season after disappointing season. Hiring Wade Phillips could help, but his defense struggled mightily in Dallas this year as well. Next season could be another long season for the Texans.
Jacksonville is taking its fans on a roller-coaster ride. I was dumbfounded when I saw Indianapolis losing tot he Titans and the Jaguars blowing that opportunity by trailing to the Texans. You would think that with the season on the line the Jaguars would play like there's no tomorrow, but they lost to the Texans of all teams. Indianapolis came a field goal away from gifting them a chance to the post-season, and it wouldn't have mattered because they blew it. I'm thinking that Del Rio should be gone after this season. Like Kubiak, he's had one chance too many and come up short too many times. Unlike most other coaches I've mentioned, the Jaguars have a 4-3 personnel and there are plenty of 4-3 coaches out there. I don't know that someone like Tom Cable or John Fox wouldn't be a better fit in Jacksonville.
Indianapolis Colts def. Tennessee Titans
Well, the Titans finally found their passing game, a bit too late if you ask me. I still think they need either a running quarterback or some new offensive weapons combined with some new offensive ideas to be dangerous again. If it's a choice between Young and Fisher, though, Fisher is the right choice hands-down.
The Colts won, but that's not exactly how I'd like to enter the postseason. We've got a rematch from last year coming up, and the Colts' problems could all come to a head. Still, they've improved in recent weeks and the bears gave them the blueprints to beating the Jets with a 4-3, it should be a great game.
Dallas Cowboys def. Philadelphia Eagles
Philly could be in trouble going forward, although I think they had great success against he Packers when Vick went in during the second half of their game earlier in the season and they have a decent chance at getting revenge. It really has been a great season for the team and for Vick especially, and things are looking up for them.
Dallas was always better than their record indicated, it seemed like Phillips just lost control of the team. Jason Garrett has done a great job with them, and I expect them to be a dangerous team again next year.
San Francisco 49ers def. Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco continues to confound me, as do the Cardinals. I guess Alex Smith has finally found his form, during the last few weeks of the season. I think what they need more than anything is a great coach, and they should try to land one of the big names out there right now. Jim Harbaugh would be an excellent fit.
The Cardinals, simply, need a quarterback. Their defense is underrated, Ken Whisenhunt has kept them competitive despite what the record would say. Their defense relied solely on Kurt Warner, though, and they need someone who can claim to be a legitimate starting quarterback to have a chance. Fortunately, there should be some options available this offseason. They'd also do well to solidify their line and get their running game back on track.
New York Giants def. Washington Redskins
The Redskins are on the cusp. I know a lot of people don't give them any respect, but they are so close they can feel it. Injuries really hurt this team, but their primary concern has to be getting better players on offense. Ryan Torrain was a great find and he and Portis should compliment each other nicely. However, they need better receivers and linemen and they need them fast. Grossman could run this team successfully, but he needs protection. McNabb would probably be a better option, but they seem to be at an impasse with him and he needs better weapons at receiver. Their defense looks old, but they kept them in contention in most games. Seven of their wins were by six points or less, and their offense struggled consistently. If they can just jump that last hurdle on offense then their defense should be good enough for them to win.
The Giants are a disappointment, though injuries definitely played a part in that. Talk of firing Tom Coughlin is ridiculous, he's done a great job with this team.
Seattle Seahawks def. St. Louis Rams
What I believe even less than the fact that a 7-9 team will host a playoff game is that the Rams lost to the Seahawks with the season on the line. This season will be a success for Pete Carroll, but I would not be satisfied with it if I were him. He still has some large holes at key positions, and he needs to approach the offseason as a chance to get a lot better no matter how well he does in the playoffs.
The Rams still have problems, that much is obvious. Sam Bradford had a tremendous rookie year, though, probably the best for a quarterback in recent memory. Their defense also impressed statistically, if not in certain key situations. Spagnuolo bought himself some time and proved he can coach a team, but he has to deliver next year. He's on the hot seat, and the expectation is probably 9-7 or better. They can probably do it, though, as they have a lot of good parts in place and only need to supplement them in the offseason.
Atlanta Falcons def. Carolina Panthers
No surprise on the win by Atlanta. Carolina is a bit of a surprise this year as one of the worst teams. Yes they had a quarterback carousel, but only two seasons removed from being division champs and posting a respectable record last season, the sharp rate of decline is a surprise. Of course injuries and the departure of key free agents contributed to this decline, which is also probably a large part of the reason why John Fox is still a highly sought-after coach. Still, with talented players like Beason still on the team one has to wonder if the worst record in the league is going to hinder Fox's chances of getting a head coaching job. He was probably already on the way out before the season started, but a record like that can't bode well for him despite all the talk of him being in contention for multiple coaching positions.
I was a bit surprised at the Falcons being as dominant as they have been, and a large part of that is because their defense has become so solid after being a point of weakness last year. I also think, though, that the Saints were only hindered due to injury and would have taken the division barring the loss of some of their top players.
Baltimore Ravens def. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals really came on near the end of the season and started to look like they did last season. Part of that decline is the play of Carson Palmer, but that defense which looked so talented a year ago looked completely flat this year. I can't come up with any other reason than coaching, when you're playing at that level one year and you get your talented players back from injury the next then you should go in completely the opposite direction than what the Bengals did. I like what Lewis has done, though, and I can't say I completely disagree with the decision to retain him. He's now on the hot seat in a very competitive division, though.
The Ravens have been up and down all season. That offense hasn't been anywhere near as high-octane as it was supposed to be, but it has gotten the job done. The defense that everyone annually predicts will decline because of the age of the starters impressed yet again this season, and despite some of them being ugly the Ravens are getting wins. I don't know that they're going to be as dangerous in the postseason as I had initially predicted, though.
Pittsburgh Steelers def. Cleveland Browns
What a way to end the season and enter the playoffs. I always think teams are better going into the postseason on a high note, and this bodes well for Pittsburgh. They've also been up and down this season, this defense has been exposed when Polamalu isn't playing. What's surprising, though, is how they can win games despite poor offensive play when he's on the field. They'll be dangerous in the playoffs.
The Browns look pretty promising. Peyton Hillis was a nice acquisition, and they're starting to get a good group of talented players at positions like wideout and linebacker. Another good draft and they should be in a good position to win next year, even despite losing their coach. I've never liked Mangini, not since he was in New York. I disagree with the way he ran the Browns from the start, and it's good they have Holmgren there running the show. I think the Browns would do well to get him as their coach, but that doesn't seem too likely. Still, whomever they get will probably be an upgrade and should have a good group of players to work with. This division could be wide open next year.
Detroit Lions def. Minnesota Vikings
Speaking of a team that's looking good, Detroit could be very dangerous in a very short amount of time. Hell, given their drought I'll even root for them to win the division and the Superbowl next year, and they very well could. Their defensive line has been dangerous, and Suh should be a valuable part of that team for years to come. They had an amazing offseason last year, and if they can do half as good this year I think they'll be favorites to take the North.
Which means we could have a new bottom-feeder. Les Frasier is a nice guy and I hope he does well, but this team could be in rebuilding mode at a bad time. They have a lot of ageing veterans on their team, and if they don't acquire a lot of talent fast, including a starting quarterback, they could be looking at a few years in last place.
Oakland Raiders def. Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland has been so impressive in their wins, which makes me wonder why they lost some of the games that they did. I also wonder why a coach who has posted a better record each year and swept the division is getting canned, that is a huge step backwards for the Raiders. Just as fans start to see light at the end of the tunnel, Cable gets fired and they're back to square one. It would be different if there were a lot of talented coaches available, but right now I see a high demand for the few talented coaches that are there. Even with a less impressive season Cable probably would have been the right man for the job, the way he got his team to where they are now should have secured that position for him. People are saying he could be in demand, but I have my doubts if he would be a fit anywhere else.
New England Patriots def. Miami Dolphins
The Pats are another team that is rolling into the playoffs. They looked almost mortal at the beginning of the season, I'm amazed at the turnaround they've had in recent weeks. Belichick definitely deserves 99% of the credit for this team's success, he is one of the winningest coaches in this league no matter who he puts on the field.
The Dolphins decided to keep Tony Sporano, and that's probably a good idea. This season was a definite disappointment, but the lack of available coaches should be a bigger concern for the Dolphins. Sporano is a known asset and they should be more concerned with keeping up their recent success than gambling on a new coach, especially with all the young players they have.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay has been uber-impressive this season, even with a banged-up, young defense they came one win away from the post-season. I would have loved to see them make it, hell I would have loved to see the Giants make it, but this team has promise. Every year a different team wins the NFC South, next year will probably be no different.
The Saints have struggled at times, but they're a good team. Their running backs are dangerous, and Brees is one of the best in the league when he gets hot. I would not want to face them in the post-season, at home or on the road.
New York Jets def. Buffalo Bills
It was good for the Jets to not only win here but to make a statement, that momentum could prove to be a difference-maker int he playoffs. They've surprised me in some of the games they've lost this year, but they've also shown an ability to bounce back against good teams. They should not be counted out in any game they play.
The Bills have really surprised me, I thought they were going to go winless and they ended up getting four wins in the span of six weeks. I thought Chan Gailey was a goner from the start, but there may be promise for him yet. What he needs more than anything is a good draft so that he can get the right players for his system, then this team should start to see some improvement.
San Diego Chargers def. Denver Broncos
San Diego is one team that I thought should have fired their coach. Norv Turner has made the playoffs consistently, but has never gone very far at all once there. Now he's had a team with a lot of talent and completely missed the playoffs inside a weak division. When your quarterback is putting up the numbers that Phillip Rivers is and your team is still losing, there is a problem. Keeping him on only makes the problem worse, Rivers is getting older and it would be better to get a new coach in so that his system has time to develop.
The Broncos are a huge disappointment. In McDaniels' first season everyone was calling me out while they were winning because I had predicted he would crash and burn, then they missed the playoffs and spent this past season losing, and now I get to say I told you so. I will say that I think Orton's numbers are a side-effect of McDaniels' offense (no disrespect to Orton), but you have to be more than a one trick pony to be an NFL head coach. The talent side of this team was out of whack as soon as McDaniels stepped through he door, and what they need more than anything is for someone to restore sanity to this team. They never should have fired Shanahan, and now they could be in a rough position with so few viable options for the coaching position.
Green Bay Packers def. Chicago Bears
What a tough loss for the Bears. Going into the postseason with momentum is important, and it would have been great if they could have knocked the Packers out of the postseason. Still, I thought their defense played impressively, aside from a couple big plays. This past week all everyone was talking about was the Green Bay offense, how they were going to pass all over Chicago, and we held them to ten points. The offense was disappointing, but I think if we meet again that Martz and company will have some new tricks up their sleeve.
Green Bay continues to be the media darling, I think some of these commentators need to just suck a Packers player off already and get it over with. The Green Bay offense continues to not impress me, most of their big plays are a result of defensive players missing tackles or assignments and they have no running game whatsoever. Their defense is what was impressive last Sunday, but we still should have been able to adjust. Their coverage of our receivers was the biggest key to why they won, but key drops were also a big part of that. Overall, though, I think it was a game we should have won. To quote a famous coach whose name I can't remember, "We knew who they were and we let them off the hook!"
Houston Texans def. Jacksonville Jaguars
Isn't that just like me to swear off a team for disappointing me and then have them win a meaningless game at the end of the season. The Texans had a hugely disappointing season after starting off so well, and there is no reason that one defensive player should make that much of a difference when he's not on the field. No offense to DeMeco Ryans, but the defensive coaches need to find a way to make up for his loss when he's not playing. I think Gary Kubiak should have been fired for this season, he's been ont he hot seat forever and he never seems to get canned despite disappointing season after disappointing season. Hiring Wade Phillips could help, but his defense struggled mightily in Dallas this year as well. Next season could be another long season for the Texans.
Jacksonville is taking its fans on a roller-coaster ride. I was dumbfounded when I saw Indianapolis losing tot he Titans and the Jaguars blowing that opportunity by trailing to the Texans. You would think that with the season on the line the Jaguars would play like there's no tomorrow, but they lost to the Texans of all teams. Indianapolis came a field goal away from gifting them a chance to the post-season, and it wouldn't have mattered because they blew it. I'm thinking that Del Rio should be gone after this season. Like Kubiak, he's had one chance too many and come up short too many times. Unlike most other coaches I've mentioned, the Jaguars have a 4-3 personnel and there are plenty of 4-3 coaches out there. I don't know that someone like Tom Cable or John Fox wouldn't be a better fit in Jacksonville.
Indianapolis Colts def. Tennessee Titans
Well, the Titans finally found their passing game, a bit too late if you ask me. I still think they need either a running quarterback or some new offensive weapons combined with some new offensive ideas to be dangerous again. If it's a choice between Young and Fisher, though, Fisher is the right choice hands-down.
The Colts won, but that's not exactly how I'd like to enter the postseason. We've got a rematch from last year coming up, and the Colts' problems could all come to a head. Still, they've improved in recent weeks and the bears gave them the blueprints to beating the Jets with a 4-3, it should be a great game.
Dallas Cowboys def. Philadelphia Eagles
Philly could be in trouble going forward, although I think they had great success against he Packers when Vick went in during the second half of their game earlier in the season and they have a decent chance at getting revenge. It really has been a great season for the team and for Vick especially, and things are looking up for them.
Dallas was always better than their record indicated, it seemed like Phillips just lost control of the team. Jason Garrett has done a great job with them, and I expect them to be a dangerous team again next year.
San Francisco 49ers def. Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco continues to confound me, as do the Cardinals. I guess Alex Smith has finally found his form, during the last few weeks of the season. I think what they need more than anything is a great coach, and they should try to land one of the big names out there right now. Jim Harbaugh would be an excellent fit.
The Cardinals, simply, need a quarterback. Their defense is underrated, Ken Whisenhunt has kept them competitive despite what the record would say. Their defense relied solely on Kurt Warner, though, and they need someone who can claim to be a legitimate starting quarterback to have a chance. Fortunately, there should be some options available this offseason. They'd also do well to solidify their line and get their running game back on track.
New York Giants def. Washington Redskins
The Redskins are on the cusp. I know a lot of people don't give them any respect, but they are so close they can feel it. Injuries really hurt this team, but their primary concern has to be getting better players on offense. Ryan Torrain was a great find and he and Portis should compliment each other nicely. However, they need better receivers and linemen and they need them fast. Grossman could run this team successfully, but he needs protection. McNabb would probably be a better option, but they seem to be at an impasse with him and he needs better weapons at receiver. Their defense looks old, but they kept them in contention in most games. Seven of their wins were by six points or less, and their offense struggled consistently. If they can just jump that last hurdle on offense then their defense should be good enough for them to win.
The Giants are a disappointment, though injuries definitely played a part in that. Talk of firing Tom Coughlin is ridiculous, he's done a great job with this team.
Seattle Seahawks def. St. Louis Rams
What I believe even less than the fact that a 7-9 team will host a playoff game is that the Rams lost to the Seahawks with the season on the line. This season will be a success for Pete Carroll, but I would not be satisfied with it if I were him. He still has some large holes at key positions, and he needs to approach the offseason as a chance to get a lot better no matter how well he does in the playoffs.
The Rams still have problems, that much is obvious. Sam Bradford had a tremendous rookie year, though, probably the best for a quarterback in recent memory. Their defense also impressed statistically, if not in certain key situations. Spagnuolo bought himself some time and proved he can coach a team, but he has to deliver next year. He's on the hot seat, and the expectation is probably 9-7 or better. They can probably do it, though, as they have a lot of good parts in place and only need to supplement them in the offseason.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
NFL Week Seventeen Predictions
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
If any other team were in Atlanta's position then I'd say this game would be ripe for an upset, but the Falcons are probably going to play with purpose despite having nothing to really play for.
Prediction: Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
I just don't see the Bengals being able to do much against that defense.
Prediction: Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Browns might have a slight chance if Hillis plays, but that Steelers' defense is solid.
Prediction: Steelers
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Detroit is just starting to get hot. I know this is a game the Vikings are going to fight tooth and nail to win, but I expect Detroit to mimic the gameplan Chicago used to beat them: lots of pressure on the quarterback and an aerial attack.
Prediction: Lions
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland's looking pretty banged up, and their rush defense isn't keeping up with their pass defense.
Prediction: Chiefs
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
New England isn't going to roll over for this game, they should win at home.
Prediction: Patriots
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
The Bucs are toe to toe with the Saints on both sides of the pass, but they have struggled against the run, and Chris Ivory and company should put the hurt on them.
Prediction: Saints
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
The Jets will make a statement heading into the playoffs.
Prediction: Jets
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Denver hasn't convinced me that they can beat anyone, much less the Chargers
Prediction: Chargers
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
The Bears finally had a statement game over the Jets, but I still feel like people underestimate them. The perfect way to counter that would be to potentially knock Green Bay out of the playoff chase, and I think that motivation will get the Bears back into the habit of winning at Lambeau that they had the first few years under Lovie Smith. This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
The Jaguars haven't looked like a team that wants to win lately, but the Texans are just abysmal. They have a penchant for winning games at the end of the season after they've lost all playoff hope, but I can't see them pulling this one out.
Prediction: Jaguars
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Unfortunately for Jaguars fans I can't see Indy letting a playoff opportunity slip through their hands the way Jacksonville did. The Titans have problems, and I see no way that they'll be able to stop Peyton Manning.
Prediction: Colts
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
I truly hate the questionable status, it seems like every time it's put on someone the day before they end up playing. If Kitna plays, this could be a trap game. If not, I doubt they can put together an attack that will beat the Eagles. I have no other viable upsets, though, so I'm taking the Cowboys. This is my upset of the week.
Prediction: Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals have looked pretty awful at times this season, but they've pulled their act together recently a slight bit. The Niners just had their head coach fired with one game to go and I doubt they'll have a cohesive gameplan going in, so I'm taking the Cards to finish the season strong. This is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Cardinals
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
The Giants are struggling, but they couldn't possibly lose to Washington, could they?
Prediction: Giants
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Hard to believe this is for a playoff spot, you'd never have guessed the Seahawks would still be in it. Still, I don't see them containing the Rams' offense
Prediction: Rams
If any other team were in Atlanta's position then I'd say this game would be ripe for an upset, but the Falcons are probably going to play with purpose despite having nothing to really play for.
Prediction: Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
I just don't see the Bengals being able to do much against that defense.
Prediction: Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Browns might have a slight chance if Hillis plays, but that Steelers' defense is solid.
Prediction: Steelers
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Detroit is just starting to get hot. I know this is a game the Vikings are going to fight tooth and nail to win, but I expect Detroit to mimic the gameplan Chicago used to beat them: lots of pressure on the quarterback and an aerial attack.
Prediction: Lions
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland's looking pretty banged up, and their rush defense isn't keeping up with their pass defense.
Prediction: Chiefs
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
New England isn't going to roll over for this game, they should win at home.
Prediction: Patriots
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
The Bucs are toe to toe with the Saints on both sides of the pass, but they have struggled against the run, and Chris Ivory and company should put the hurt on them.
Prediction: Saints
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
The Jets will make a statement heading into the playoffs.
Prediction: Jets
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Denver hasn't convinced me that they can beat anyone, much less the Chargers
Prediction: Chargers
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
The Bears finally had a statement game over the Jets, but I still feel like people underestimate them. The perfect way to counter that would be to potentially knock Green Bay out of the playoff chase, and I think that motivation will get the Bears back into the habit of winning at Lambeau that they had the first few years under Lovie Smith. This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
The Jaguars haven't looked like a team that wants to win lately, but the Texans are just abysmal. They have a penchant for winning games at the end of the season after they've lost all playoff hope, but I can't see them pulling this one out.
Prediction: Jaguars
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Unfortunately for Jaguars fans I can't see Indy letting a playoff opportunity slip through their hands the way Jacksonville did. The Titans have problems, and I see no way that they'll be able to stop Peyton Manning.
Prediction: Colts
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
I truly hate the questionable status, it seems like every time it's put on someone the day before they end up playing. If Kitna plays, this could be a trap game. If not, I doubt they can put together an attack that will beat the Eagles. I have no other viable upsets, though, so I'm taking the Cowboys. This is my upset of the week.
Prediction: Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals have looked pretty awful at times this season, but they've pulled their act together recently a slight bit. The Niners just had their head coach fired with one game to go and I doubt they'll have a cohesive gameplan going in, so I'm taking the Cards to finish the season strong. This is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Cardinals
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
The Giants are struggling, but they couldn't possibly lose to Washington, could they?
Prediction: Giants
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Hard to believe this is for a playoff spot, you'd never have guessed the Seahawks would still be in it. Still, I don't see them containing the Rams' offense
Prediction: Rams
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