NFL Week Sixteen Thoughts

Pittsburgh Steelers def. Carolina Panthers 

Heh, Carolina sucks.

Arizona Cardinals def. Dallas Cowboys

What?  Are you kidding me Dallas?  David Buehler's days as an NFL kicker may be numbered.  I'm sure they still like him as a plus fifty yard kicker and on kickoffs, but if he can't make medium distance field goals and isn't reliable on extra points then he's not really worth it.  They might do what they had done previously and keep two kickers on the team, but I get the feeling they didn't really like that approach.

New England Patriots def. Buffalo Bills

Who was I kidding, the Patriots always play like they have something to play for.

Chicago Bears def. New York Jets

Wow, did the Bears surprise me in this one.  I'm not even so surprised that the Jets were able to exploit the holes in our defense, I am surprised in how effective we still were with basically no pass rush.  I'm also surprised at how well we ran, fitting that the only player to rush for 100 yards in over a year on Buddy Ryan's son was a Bear.  We're looking damn good right now, and even if it took sixteen weeks the sports media is finally starting to give us our due.

Baltimore Ravens def. Cleveland Browns

The Ravens weren't going to drop a game with so much riding on it.

Washington Redskins def. Jacksonville Jaguars

And this is why Jack del Rio's job is on the line, he can't pull his team through when they need it most.  Two weeks removed from controlling their own destiny they now need Indy help to get into the playoffs, and I have a feeling they're not going to get it.

Kansas City Chiefs def. Tennessee Titans

The Chiefs are rolling right now, and I wouldn't want to be facing them early in the playoffs.

Detroit Lions def. Miami Dolphins

This played out exactly like I predicted.  Miami had control of the game for a good while, I had even given up on Detroit winning, but they cannot win at home for some screwy reason.

St. Louis Rams def. San Francisco 49ers

Pulling down your pants in front of your team isn't the most auspicious way to start a coaching stint.  One has to wonder where the Niners team of last year went, why they couldn't turn almost from last year into success this year and instead went the other way.  In the end, it's on Mike's head.  Still, the Rams and Sam Bradford weren't going to let this one slip away with the playoffs potentially on the line.

Cincinnati Bengals def. San Diego Chargers 

I knew that San Diego wasn't going to be the late season juggernaut they usually are, but they are losing with a pretty easy schedule which is surprising.

Denver Broncos def. Houston Texans

What a mess of a game.  Kubiak better get the boot, no way one injury should send your defense from one of the best to one of the worst in the league.

Indianapolis Colts def. Oakland Raiders

Peyton Manning looks unstoppable at the end of the season, I guess the Colts know when to turn up the pressure, and take advantage of some good fortune coming out of Jacksonville.

Green Bay Packers def. New York Giants

Oh Giants, where have you gone wrong?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Seattle Seahawks

Like I said, Seattle got torched.

Minnesota Vikings def. Philadelphia Eagles

I don't mind being wrong here, as it gives my Bears a first round bye.  I do find it very surprising that the Philly defense allowed so many points to a weak looking offense.

New Orleans Saints def. Atlanta Falcons

The Saints know when to turn it up, and made an impressive statement beating Atlanta at home.

NFL Week Sixteen Predictions

Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I considered Carolina in this game with Polamalu out and the team finally finding some consistency, but in the end I don't think their defense can stop Mendenhall.
Prediction: Steelers

Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals

The Cards are looking as bad now as Dallas looked earlier in the season, or even worse.
Prediction: Cowboys

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

With nothing to really play for the Bills could pull off an upset, but we're talking Belichick's Pats here and not the Colts.
Prediction: Patriots

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears

I do think the Bears can beat the Jets, and even are in a good position to do so.  However, the Jets finally got back on track and are fighting for their playoff lives.  The biggest factors in this game, however, are going to be Revis and the line.  I don't believe Cutler is going to be able to pass against the Jets, especially because I don't think our run game is going anywhere against them, and I don't think we're going to be able to pressure Sanchez, which is why I have to go with the Jets.
Prediction: Jets

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

I can't pick against Baltimore here when they're still playing for a playoff berth.
Prediction: Ravens

Washington Redskins @ Jacksonville Jaguars

See above.
Prediction: Jaguars

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

CJ2K isn't going to be able to win this one on his own.
Prediction: Chiefs

Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins

I don't really like Detroit here, but I have sworn off picking Miami at home.  This is my upset of the week.
Prediction: Lions

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams

I can't believe that the Rams are going to get beat by these Niners again, much less at home.  Troy Smith has played in a few more games, there's more film on him now, and the Rams know his tendencies now, so I have to go with the better QB in Sam Bradford.
Prediction: Rams

San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals

I'm having a hard time believing the Bengals can produce against this San Diego defense, or that they can stop Phillip Rivers
Prediction: Chargers

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos

Oh my god, this has to go down as the absolute worst matchup of the year.  Denver is bad, bad, bad, and I don't know that they can stop Arian Foster.  That Houston defense is just as bad though, and this could the point where the Denver offense finally picks up the win.  I'd rather just bury my head in the sand and pretend this matchup won't ever take place, but since I have to pick a winner, Houston.
Prediction: Texans

Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders

Another receiver goes on IR, Dwight Freeney isn't participating in practice, and the Colts go up against a scary Raiders' passing offense.  If you would have said at the beginning of the season that the Raiders are going to end the Colts' playoff hopes I'd have laughed you out of the country, but I say that's exactly what's going to happen.  This is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Raiders

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

Passing defense, I do not think the Packers are going to fare well against New York's.  The Giants are generating a ton of pressure, which has been a sore sport for the Pack, and the Giants' offense is firing on all cylinders.  The big question will be if they'll have another breakdown, but I doubt we'll see a repeat of last week.
Prediction: Giants

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are still fighting for playoff life (barely), and should torch a weak Seattle secondary.
Prediction: Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

All Minnesota is doing now is looking ahead to next year, the Eagles are in contention for a number two seed.
Prediction: Eagles

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

This is turning into a hot matchup.  The Saints came within a field goal of beating the Falcons at the Superdome, and they are in a better position to win now.  Their defense seems to be in a better position than Atlanta's, and their running game and offense are firing on all cylinders.  The Birds don't lose at home, though.  It's so hard to pick Atlanta to lose at home, but I have to go with the Saints here.  This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Saints

NFL Week Fifteen Thoughts

This is the week the Bears won the NFC North, it is a good week indeed!

San Diego Chargers def. San Francisco 49ers


I think it's going to be bye-bye Singletary after this season, though they could still make the playoffs (yikes!)

Baltimore Ravens def. New Orleans Saints

There's nothing I hate more than not knowing whether or not the good team or bad team is going to show up on Sunday, Ravens have that dynamic.

Carolina Panthers def. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona should be mightily embarrassed.

Cincinnati Bengals def. Cleveland Browns

The Bengals are coming on at the end of the season.  I haven't been very high on Mangini as a head coach since he was in New York, I think the Browns would be better off with Mike Holmgren running the show.

Dallas Cowboys def. Washington Redskins

Rex Grossman didn't look half bad, perhaps he's finally landed in a system he fits in.  That Dallas defense is looking impressive late in the year, they could be due for a resurgence next year.

Indianaplois Colts def. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars missed some key opportunities here, but the Colts finally came out and proved they could get past their team troubles and finish a game.  They look like they could be contenders if they make it in to the postseason, but I'm not so sure they can win out.

Buffalo Bills def. Miami Dolphins

Oh Miami, how did you let this one slip away?  I'm starting to think they don't even want to win at home.

Philadelphia Eagles def. New York Giants


Jacksonville last week, Philly this week, seems I can't help but get burned by big punt returns at least once a week.  That fourth quarter breakdown does not look good for the Giants heading into the playoffs, though they have gone from disappointing at the end of the season to playoff monsters in the past.

Kansas City Chiefs def. St. Louis Rams

This Chiefs team is looking pretty impressive, if they can have a good offseason we could be looking at new long-term favorites in the division.

Detroit Lions def. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I got this one right, but it played out just the opposite of what I thought it would.  Detroit's run defense got torched (LeGarrette Blount is a beast), and Drew Stanton lit up the field.  That Tampa defense is very young, too young for this team to be a legitimate contender, but a good draft and they could be back in contention.  You know how it goes in the NFC South, every year they have a new division champion.

Tennessee Titans def. Houston Texans

I made the cardinal mistake of evaluating the Texans this year, never underestimate how atrocious their defense is.

Atlanta Falcons def. Seattle Seahawks

Atlanta is a hot team, the Seahawks are slumping.

Oakland Raiders def. Denver Broncos

Those Broncos are in dire straights, whoever they bring in as coach and/or to run personnel had better have their act together.

New York Jet def. Pittsburgh Steelers

Polamalu didn't play, but I am a little surprised at how easily Sanchez was able to handle their D.  I think the Steelers got robbed by a no-call late in the fourth, but they still didn't get it done on subsequent plays.
New England Patriots def. Green Bay Packers
I'm a bit surprised at how well Matt Flynn did, although this Pats' defense can have sort of a Jekyll and Hyde dynamic to it.

Chicago Bears def. Minnesota Vikings

Okay, I know Webb was in there for a full half, but we played them damn well the whole game.  No matter who was in the pocket we took them to the ground, we generated five turnovers, Hester set a new NFL record for return touchdowns (congrats!), and this offense took advantage where they could.  Jay Cutler looked especially impressive, and I think things are looking up for this team.  No matter what happens in the postseason, this season has been a success.  With that being said, we're division champs and on the way to the playoffs, go Bears!

What Grinds my Gears-Gridiron Edition

It's been a while since I've written anything that wasn't about picks, so at the end of the season I'm finally getting around to writing something substantial.  There have been a lot of things that have been getting on my nerves this season, so I figure it's time I let loose.

I am now wholly convinced that the Bears are one of the most hated teams in the NFL, and the Packers one of the most loved.  Why this is I do not know, though I have some theories.  The first one is that the Packers have a playstyle that many fans like: high octane passing game, blitz-heavy defense.  They can put up big stats on both sides of the ball, which is something I will get into in more detail later, but they can also be burned by opportunistic teams and injuries.  They have Aaron Rodgers, they have Clay Matthews, that's enough to give most fantasy players a woody.

Speaking of which, this is the other reason I think the Packers are loved, the love affair that announcers seem to have with Favre.  Green Bay is still benefiting from that, especially with another good, young QB having replaced Favre.  Everyone is aware of the obsession John Madden had with Favre, if it wasn't readily apparent from watching a broadcast then Frank Caliendo has preserved his obsession for the ages with his impressions.  Years after Madden's retirement, though, broadcasters are still gushing over Brett Favre.  Listening to John Gruden during the Bears game last night was enough to give me diabetes.  We get it, everyone loves Favre.  The best thing about Favre's probable retirement after this season is going to be not having to listen to announcers gush over him, though I'm sure the borderline erotic praise will be lauded on him for a short while after his retirement at least.

Speaking of Minnesota, they are not so great outside of the Metrodome, which is heresy for a Midwest team.  The Minnesota players were whining and complaining all week before the game that they actually had to play *gasp* outdoors.  Perhaps the numerous injuries they sustained, including one to Old Man Favre on a sack by rookie Corey Wooten, should be a confirmation of their worries, but the Bears didn't seem to suffer any ill effects from the weather or the field.  Now Vikings owner Zigy Wilf is lobbying for an outdoor stadium, the first decent thing he's done since taking over.  Look out babies, you might finally have to survive outside of your crib.

This is something that is driving me absolutely insane, stadium deals with the cities.  I don't know exactly when this tradition started, but it is the most insane idea to me that these teams that are making millions upon millions of dollars each year are actually going to cities and demanding money to build stadiums.  The Cubs threatened to pull out of Arizona if they didn't get a new multi-million dollar stadium built for them despite the entire state being in dire straights, Minnesota isn't much better and the Vikings are asking for money for a new field, the Cubs are asking the city of Chicago, which is knee deep in red ink, for money for stadium renovations, am I going insane here?  Go to the Chicago Tribune online and read any article about preserving programs that help people in need, preserving education funding, preserving union jobs, and you get some ideological argument riddled with accusations of leeching and excessive use of the term "entitlement."  Read an article about the Cubs wanting a new stadium and everyone talks about how it's common practice, about how we don't want them to leave (apparently), about how the Bears got money to renovate Soldier Field.  I don't care if it HAS been done, it shouldn't be done.  There are people in need, and they should take priority in receiving government funds over pro sports franchises that are extremely well off to being with.  On top of all of this, ticket prices are enormously high.  You would think the least these owners could do for people who build them stadiums is keep prices low, but fans get gouged from the parking lot to the ticket window to the concession stand.  It's fucking bullshit, if people want to make a huge deal about government overspending and free market principles then they should start by demanding that pro sports franchises build their own goddamned stadiums.

We're getting to progressively hotter topics for me, and this one is really been getting to me lately.  Fantasy football is ruining fans' brains.  Fans today are so concerned about stats, they are so concerned about people making huge plays, that they forget that this game is more than stats.  Everywhere I go I see fans making predictions based on win/loss records, talking teams down because they don't have a QB with MVP numbers or talking teams up simply because they have a productive fantasy player.  The really strange thing is you would think they could look at the top fantasy players each year and realize that many times they don't play on winning teams.  You would also think that they would be more easily able to look at a team like Detroit and realize that players that might put up big fantasy numbers but were injured could be affecting that record.  That's one thing these fans aren't able to see, is the quality of play.  For teams like Detroit and Buffalo quality play hasn't exactly translated into victories, but that doesn't mean they aren't a decent teams with a lot of potential.  Anyone can watch the way those two teams, or other maligned teams such as Washington, have played this season and know they are on the cusp, but the fantasy-minded see only numbers.

Then you get to this new trend of fantasy analysts some networks are hiring, and they are by far the douchiest, know-nothingest bunch of obnoxious charlatans on TV this side of Fux News.  They have absolutely no concept of breaking down a team, of looking at different stats, of evaluating how certain teams and players respond in certain conditions.  They look at numbers, numbers, numbers and then go out in front of a camera and do their tired sports nerd machismo bit, playing up the teams and players with flashy numbers and attempting to emasculate those without.  As if sports fans need any more machismo.  Look, this is a team game, it takes 53 players to get to the playoffs and beyond.  Obviously not every team has 53 all-pros, and not every team can be full to the teeth of fantasy standouts.  This is what the fantasy generation cannot comprehend, is that teams with mediocre stats, or that excel in certain areas but not others, can remain competitive.  I said it before the season started, this is a league of parity.  You can look at teams like the Browns beating teams like the Patriots, at the Colts falling off after just one season,at the Bengals sweeping their division last season and going back to the bottom this season.  Look at the way the Chiefs and Rams have turned things around, how the Raiders and Jaguars are hanging in there after seasons of fizzling out.  Hell, forget the records and look at the way teams like the Lions, Bills, and Redskins are playing, look at the margin of victory, look at some of the good teams they've beaten or come close to beating.  This is a league of parity, any team can win on any given Sunday, and that makes this league great.  I don't really care if fantasy brains (and I use that word loosely) can't understand that, they just need to stop acting like they're experts when they can't get their heads around the core concepts of this league.  If stats were all that mattered then why even play 16 games, why not play four or five and let statistical simulations dot he rest?  At this time of year with the playoffs approaching, the fantasy brains are already anointing winners and losers based on stats and playmakers, but what they forget is that you haven't won squat until you actually go out there and win it.  At this point in the year, regardless of strength of schedule or any other meaningless excuse used to disparage certain teams, every single team that is still alive has the chance and the ability to win the big one, and any real football fan wouldn't have it any other way.

NFL Week Fifteen Predictions

San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers

San Fran is going to be making me second guess myself for the rest of the season, but I think the Chargers are good enough to beat them.
Prediction: Chargers

New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens

It's hard to predict which talented team will have the signature breakdown this week.  The Ravens are better running the ball, but the Saints are dominant on both sides of the ball passing.  Both teams have been prone to letdowns, but the Ravens have struggled since losing to the Steelers and the Saints are making a push.
Prediction: Saints

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

The battle of two bad teams.  The Cardinals have been improving slithgly in the past few weeks, especially running the ball where Carolina is most vunerable.
Prediction: Cardinals

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland looks a little better in terms of stats.  It'll be tough stopping Peyton Hillis, but Cleveland is just as bad as Cincy in rush defense.  The Browns have struggled in recent weeks, and the Bengals have played hard against good teams.  I like the Bengals to bounce back.
Prediciton: Bengals

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys

Wahsington is the team that sent Dallas into its downward spiral at the start of the season, now the boys are out for revenge.  The key could be who can run the ball better, and Dallas has the edge defending the run.  Ryan Torain is the Skins' ace in the hole, but the Dallas running back by committee and John Kitna make me think they have the edge.
Prediction: Cowboys

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianaplois Colts

Last time these two teams faced off I had the Colts as a lock, and the Jaguars showed up in a huge way.  That was before the Colts ran into injuries and other problems, and now the Jaguars look like the superior team.  The Colts have a way of winning the games everyone predicts they'll lose, though, so you can't count them out based on intangibles.  How about this stat, the Colts are 29th in the league in stopping the run, the Jaguars are second in the league running the ball.  I think the Jaguars match up well here.
Prediction: Jaguars

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

A lot of people are picking Buffalo as an upset here, but Miami is playing well again.  I know they're horrendous at home, but the Bills are an easy win for any team who can remained focused, like I think Miami will.
Prediction: Dolphins

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

What a matchup, both teams are just about dead even rushing the ball.  On defense, the Giants have a very slight edge against the run.  On the passing side of the ball, the Ealges have an edge on offense and the Giants on defense.  The Bears showed a gameplan for how to beat the Eagles with the same base scheme the Giants run, DeSean Jackson and other Eagles receivers are out, and the Giants receivers are getting a bit healthier.  I think that equals a bounceback for the Giants.  This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Giants

Kansas City Chiefs @ St. Louis Rams

The Rams have really dropped off rushing the ball, while the Chiefs have improved in that aspect.  While the Chiefs are good defending the run, the Rams are better.  The key to this game could be Matt Cassel, but if the Chiefs can control the ball like I think they will they'll win this game.  This is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Chiefs

Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This could be a surprisingly good game.  The Lions were very effective against Aaron Rodgers last week and have been very effective against the run all season, and I think will give a lot of trouble to Josh Freeman.  A lot of the Lions' playmakers are back, but the deciding factor could be whether or not Shaun Hill plays.  He's listed as questionable, so I think he plays and the Lions beat the Bucs.  This is my upset of the week.
Prediction: Lions

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

The Titans are bad without Vince Young.  The Texans should be able to pass all over the Titans.
Prediction: Texans

Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks

The Falcons are pushing, the Hawks are struggling, this is a no-brainer.
Prediction: Falcons

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders

The Broncos are BAD right now, and Tim Tebow starting isn't going to turn them around.
Prediction: Raiders

New York Jet @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Mark Sanchez is struggling and he's going up against Troy Polamalu, Troy wins this battle.
Prediction: Steelers

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots

The Pats are at home, they are on a roll, they're playing well on both sides of the ball, Green Bay is struggling on both sides, and they're without Aaron Rodgers.  No way they win this game.
Prediction: Patriots

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Rookie Joe Webb is starting, they're not playing in the dome, and the Bears are this close to winning the division.  Bears should take this one.
Prediction: Bears

NFL Week Fourteen Thoughts

Indianapolis Colts def. Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is bad without Vince Young.

Buffalo Bills def. Cleveland Browns

Fitz ain't great, but he's good enough to be a starter for a 3-10 team.

Atlanta Falcons def. Carolina Panthers

This one was over before it began.

Detroit Lions def. Green Bay Packers

When am I happy to be wrong?  When I pick the Packers to win.  Make no mistake, Detroit is a good team.  I think I said they'd get a division win this year, I might've even said it would come against the Pack.  Still, the way the season was playing out I thought that was one pre-season prediction I'd be wrong about.  The bigger story, though, is that the Packers have now lost to two opponents that the Bears beat and the Bears themselves.  I hope this finally establishes the Bears as the better team this season.  Don't blame this one on Rodgers being gone, either, the Lions were pummeling him before he exited the game.

Jacksonville Jaguars def. Oakland Raiders

I do hate being wrong, but I hate it even more when I'm wrong because the team I picked blew a late lead because of bad kick coverage and one huge run.  It looked like the Raiders were going to pull this one off, then two plays later they lose.  This is why despite looking impressive at times, the Raiders are not a playoff-caliber team.

Pittsburgh Steelers def. Cincinnati Bengals

Big Ben may be the quarterback, buck Troy Polamalu is the key to their success.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Washington Redskins

I'm really surprised at the manner in which Tampa won, Washington had this game and gave it away (a high school kicker could've done a better job than Gano).  One thing's for sure, though, Ryan Torain is a beast.

New Orleans Saints def. St. Louis Rams

Bradford is good, he outshined Drew Brees in the stat column.  New Orleans is the better team, though.

San Francisco 49ers def. Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco is quickly becoming my least favorite team to pick this year, they always end up doing the complete opposite of what I expect.  Seattle is almost as bad, so it's no wonder this turned out to be a matchup from hell for me.

Arizona Cardinals def. Denver Broncos

I should've gone with my gut instinct, Denver is bad.

New England Patriots def. Chicago Bears

This loss looked worse than it really was.  If not for some offensive turnovers that lead to New England scores and a breakdown on the last play of the half, this game could've at least been a lot closer than it was.  It also seemed like our gameplan was off, it looked like the coaches expected New England to keep to the ground and instead Brady came out and lit the place up.  Still, New England outplayed us.  They're a better team, I'll go so far as to call them he beast in the league right now, and they beat us.  I'm not trying to make excuses, I'm just saying that people despairing about our playoff chances should find some hope despite the lopsided score.

New York Jets def. Miami Dolphins

Mark Sanchez and that offense are looking pretty pathetic right about now.

San Diego Chargers def. Kansas City Chiefs

Matt Cassel not being there made a big difference, but with the way the score ended up it's no guarantee he would've changed the outcome.

Philadelphia Eagles def. Dallas Cowboys

Philly's playmakers really tore it up, and Jackson's little celebration was pretty entertaining.

New York Giants def. Minnesota Vikings

The only thing holding the Giants back this season is injuries, and unfortunately they have even more at the receiver position after this game.

Baltimore Ravens def. Houston Texans

Baltimore's starting to let leads slip away with regularity, not a good thing heading into the playoffs.  Baltimore's defense is still a hell of a lot better than Houston's.

NFL Week Fourteen Predictions

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is bad without Vince Young.  Indy may have a dismal run defense, but Tennessee has gotten by all season by having their offense hang in there and score as many points as their defense has given up.  With Indy that's probably not going to happen, Peyton will get over the hump against that Tennessee secondary.  Kerry Collins, meanwhile, is going to be taken apart by an Indy pass D that is in the top five in the league.
Prediction: Colts

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

With the Bills sitting at dead last in rushing defense and Peyton Hillis taking snaps for the Browns, Cleveland is a mighty tempting pick.  However, the Bills are no slouches in pass defense, while Cleveland sits at 20th in the league.  Most of Cleveland's linebackers are also listed as out or questionable, so I have to go with the Bills in this one, for the first time this year I believe.
Prediction: Bills

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

I think I'll take a chance on the Falcons in this one.
Prediction: Falcons

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Nothing would make me happier than to see the Packers upset by the Lions, but with their third string QB going up against Aaron Rodgers I just can't see Detroit winning this one.
Prediction: Packers

Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Oakland has the Jaguars outclassed in passing defense.  The Jaguars' running game is flying under the radar this season and David Garrard could put on a show against Oakland, but I think the Jaguars run into an Oakland gameplan that keeps the ball out of their hands and puts points on the board.
Prediction: Raiders

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I don't know what's worse, the Steelers' 23rd-ranked passing defense or the Bengals' 24th-ranked running defense.  This game seems ripe for an upset, but with Rashard Mendenhall taking snaps I can't go against the Steelers.
Prediction: Steelers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins

Every week people are picking Tampa to beat playoff-caliber teams, every week they come up just shy.  This week they play a non-playoff caliber team, and they should win.  Washington does have players coming back from injury, but I don't believe they can keep up with this Bucs' offense.
Prediction: Buccaneers

St. Louis Rams @ New Orleans Saints

Would you believe I actually had to go to the stats with this one?  The Rams are certainly making an improvement over the past few seasons.  It looks like Pierre Thomas is finally going to make his return, though, which makes the running back committee for New Orleans look very formidable.  The Rams have quietly been in the upper half of the league in run defense, with the Saints being right there with them in the same category.  I don't know that I can rightly give the advantage to either quarterback even with the slew of weapons Brees has, so this one comes down to passing D.  The Saints are head and shoulder better than the Rams in this department, so I have to go with the favorite.  Still, this is my game of the week.
Prediction: Saints

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Mike Singletary is benching Troy Smith after the way he's played over the past few games?  This season has really turned into a disaster for him.  The Niners have the talent to win this game, but I think the Seahawks are the overall better team.
Prediction: Seahawks

Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals

When I heard that McDaniels was fired I thought that Studesville was going to break the trend of interim coaches getting their first win in their first game, then I saw who the Broncos were playing and changed my mind.
Prediction: Broncos

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears

This is a good matchup, both teams have strengths and weaknesses the other can exploit.  The Bears have been good on defense against formidable passing attacks, but New England has just the right offense to exploit the cover-2.  The Patriots are near dead last in the league in passing defense, but rookie Devin McCourty is dangerous and could end up costing Cutler some picks.  On the ground, New England is just in the bottom half of the league on defense while Chicago's run game is just getting going.  On the flip side, Chicago is second in the league against the run while the Patriots don't do anything special on offense.  Statistically the Bears should be able to pull out the win, though the Patriots have been finding ways to win games where they seem overmatched all season.  I wouldn't count the Patriots out of anything, but after their big win last week I think they're due for a comedown.  This is my upset of the week.
Prediction: Bears

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

These teams are pretty evenly matched, but where Miami has most of their defensive stars listed as questionable it seems like New York is due to get most of their injured players back this week.  I have to take the Jets in a close one.
Prediction: Jets

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers

No Matt Cassel, no chance for the Chiefs
Prediction: Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

There are a lot of people choosing the Cowboys as an upset and I will admit the intangibles seem to favor them.  However, the Eagles have the defense on both sides of the ball to keep this game under their control.  As long as they can keep the Cowboys from establishing offensive rhythm they should be able to pull out a win.
Prediction: Eagles

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings

Despite the talk about the injuries to the Giants' line, Eli Manning hasn't been sacked since he played the Cowboys in week seven.  He has thrown a ton of interceptions, though, and Nicks and Smith are still listed as questionable.  Minnesota hasn't been great in generating takeaways, but their sack numbers have improved in recent weeks.  The Giants are just as formidable, though, and have an electric secondary.  I am right on the fence on this one and could easily take the Vikings, but I'm barely looking at New York as favorites in this one.  This is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Giants

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans

I'd like to take the Texans as an upset here, but their biggest advantage is their running game and Baltimore's run game is just as good.  The Texans are absolutely atrocious in pass defense, and I can't rightly pick them to win a game against a team with a quarterback like Joe Flacco. 
Prediction: Ravens

NFL Week Thirteen Thoughts

Philadelphia Eagles def. Houston Texans

It's amazing how one missing player can have this big an impact on what used to be viewed as one of the more formidable defenses in the league.  Losing Dunta Robinson in the offseason didn't help any, either.

New Orleans Saints def. Cincinnati Bengals

You're kidding me, the Bengals almost won?  They stayed in the game for all four quarters, they ran and threw the ball on the Saints, their secondary gave Drew Brees problems?  Where has this Bengals team been all season?

Chicago Bears def. Detroit Lions

I know the Bears didn't play their best half in the first, but make no mistake, this Lions team is good.  There's no shame in getting beat big by players like Jahvid Best and Calvin Johnson.  I'm especially surprised at how well their line played, if they have another draft like last year they're going to end up being the worst team favored heavily to make the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers def. San Francisco 49ers

Singletary could've helped out his old team if he had been able to hold on to his lead and given the Bears a two game lead in the division.  I know Green Bay is a good team, but if the Niners hadn't let this one slip away they could've upset them.  That alone tells me that Green Bay isn't as good as everyone makes them out to be (even if they're still good).  In fact, Green Bay caused my stomach to churn when on Monday morning I saw a story on the front page of NFL.com talking solely about Green Bay wearing their throwback jerseys.  Seriously guys, remove your lips from the Packers' overrated asses.

Kansas City Chiefs def. Denver Broncos

Denver is in dire straits, when you think Eric Studesville is a better option than your current head coach and are willing to make him the third head coach you'll be paying this year then you know something is wrong.  I don't foresee Denver having the same success that Minnesota and Dallas enjoyed after dumping their embattled head coaches.

Cleveland Browns def. Miami Dolphins

I don't know what to make of this one.  Of course, Miami always plays worse at home than on the road, but I'm surprised that they couldn't contain the Browns' offense.  They let Jake Delhomme pass for 217 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions?  For shame.

Minnesota Vikings def. Buffalo Bills

This played out almost exactly as I expected, except for Tavaris Jackson finally coming off the bench.  Earth to Frazier, bench the old man already.  You want to test T-Jack down the stretch to see what you have for next year.  Favre isn't going to be back next year anyways, the bigger concern should be the long-term plans for this team.

New York Giants def. Washington Redskins

Not surprised at all.

Jacksonville Jaguars def. Tennessee Titans

The Titans are bad without VY, Jacksonville is starting to show that they're a legitimate contender.

Oakland Raiders def. San Diego Chargers

I've been saying all along that San Digeo's problems go deeper than just a slow start, but I didn't expect them to revert to the form of last season of giving away points on turnovers and special teams.

St. Louis Rams def. Arizona Cardinals

The Cards are officially the new Rams.  Props to Derek Anderson for telling that reporter off, the press definitely blows things like that out of proportion on a regular basis and the guy deserved what he got.  It almost goes down as the best post-game outburst in Cardinals' history, but you still can't beat Denny Green.  "You wanna crown their asses, then crown their asses!" Priceless.

Dallas Cowboys def. Indianapolis Colts

Manning is definitely struggling and deserves some of the blame for what the Colts have been going through.  I still say that people who put it all on him aren't paying attention, though, those receivers are blowing a ton of routes.

Seattle Seahawks def. Carolina Panthers

Panthers suck.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Atlanta Falcons

Lotta people took Tampa here, but I wasn't fooled.  It's like I keep saying, they're a young team and that defense is especially green.

Pittsburgh Steelers def. Baltimore Ravens

So much for the Ravens executing better.  Both the call to pass at the end of the game and the coach defending and not defending his coordinator at the same time made me facepalm.

New England Patriots def. New York Jets

I guess the Jets aren't who we thought they were.  They're going through a transition in the secondary and New England matches up pretty well, this shouldn't be that much of a surprise.

NFL Week Thirteen Predictions

Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles

It might seem like it's late, but I posted my pick elsewhere before the game.  No way the Texans' defense is going to be able to stop Philly's high-octane offense.
Prediction: Eagles

New Orleans Saints @ Cincinnati Bengals

Their schedule doesn't do the Bengals any favors, but they've still fallen off a great deal.  With the Saints in the playoff chance I would be surprised if they let this one slip away.
Prediction: Saints

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

This one won't come down to the last play of the game, Detroit's fallen off too much to be able to pull this one out.  Drew Stanton and Maurice Morris going up against the Chicago D?  Hah!
Prediction: Bears

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

I almost thought about seriously contemplating giving this one to San Francisco when I looked at some of their defensive numbers.  Still, they're at Green Bay and any success they might have in holding the Packers will probably be offset by not being able to score on offense.
Prediction: Packers

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

Looking at this one on paper it would seem like the Chiefs would have a hard time containing the Broncos' passing game, but after seeing Denver get bullrushed by the Rams last week I have no confidence picking them.
Prediction: Chiefs

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins

I believe in the Miami defense in this one.  Their passing D is enough to wreak havoc on Jake Delhomme and their running D should be enough to keep the game out of the Browns' hands, especially if Hillis doesn't play.
Prediction: Dolphins

Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings

Vikings are fifth in the league in rushing defense, Bills are dead last.  Seeing the Steelers getting beat up on by Buffalo through the air last week makes me cautious about this, but I say the resurgent Vikings get another win under Leslie Frazier.  This is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Vikings

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

No way New York should lose this game.
Prediction: Giants

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

I don't much care if Kerry Collins is playing or not, the Titans don't have much of a chance.  The Jaguars have been quietly lighting it up against teams like the Giants, Texans, and Colts.
Prediction: Jaguars

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are playing their best football, they aren't making the mistakes they were near the beginning of the season, they're playing at home, and the Raiders shouldn't sneak up on them this time.
Prediction: Chargers

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

Rams are playing some good football, and they should be able to outduel whichever quarterback Arizona starts.  I don't have a true upset this week so I'll call this one my upset of the week.
Prediction: Rams

Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts

I'd love to pick the Boys to get the upset, but that passing defense is way below what it needs to be to take on Peyton Manning.
Prediction: Colts

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks

No way the Hawks should lose this one.
Prediction: Seahawks

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are good, but the Falcons are better.  I don't know how anyone can second-guess the Falcons after their performance last week.
Prediction: Falcons

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

There's one deciding factor in this game, the Ravens are executing better than the Steelers.  The Steelers have been struggling lately, and I think the Ravens take a crucial division game.
Prediction: Ravens

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

This Patriots' secondary is turning it up and getting some picks, it could be time for Sanchez to come down from his recent run.  This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Patriots

NFL Week Twelve Thoughts

New England Patriots def. Detroit Lions


Hard to tell if Detroit's losing it or if New England is turning it on, but it seems to me like it's a combination of both.
New Orleans Saints def. Dallas Cowboys

New Orleans is good once it gets that running game going, and Chris Ivory looks like he can be a dependable complement to PT down the road.
New York Jets def. Cincinnati Bengals

No surprise here, Bengals fell off big time this season.
Atlanta Falcons def. Green Bay Packers

I. Told. You. So.
Pittsburgh Steelers def. Buffalo Bills

Hard to believe the Bills almost won this won, harder yet to believe they should have.
Cleveland Browns def. Carolina Panthers

Another game where it was hard to believe how close it was, I guess this is the time of the year where bad teams decide they want to start winning games.

Houston Texans def. Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is sunk without Vince Young.

New York Giants def. Jacksonville Jaguars

The weak point of the Jaguars is their defense.

Minnesota Vikings def. Washington Redskins

The Vikings' defense showed up, but only against the Redskins' offense.
Miami Dolphins def. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders can be a hard team to figure out at times.  Henne's turning into a quarterback who only plays well down the stretch, which is usually good but you want him to play slightly better in the beginning of the season than he did.
Kansas City Chiefs def. Seattle Seahawks

What did I say about KC at the beginning of the season?  Run game.

Baltimore Ravens def. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I won't say that Tampa is overrated, okay maybe a little, but they're a young team and they weren't going to stop a hot Ravens' offense.

Chicago Bears def. Philadelphia Eagles

An authoritative victory for the Bears.  Their defense let up a bit in the fourth quarter, but the biggest thing is they allowed fewer points than their offense scored.
St. Louis Rams def. Denver Broncos

Hard to figure these teams out at times.  It looked like the Rams were going to run away with it for a while, which was unexpected, but that hot Broncos' offense finally showed up, only too little too late.
San Diego Chargers def. Indianapolis Colts

Colts are really struggling, and I don't blame injuries.  They won games this season despite injuries, the problem seems to be that teams are getting wise on how to beat them.  With no run game, defenses can just drop their players into coverage and make it impossible for Peyton to work his magic.
San Francisco 49ers def. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are really in a tailspin, and they desperately need a quarterback.

NFL Week Eleven Thoughts

Chicago Bears def. Miami Dolphins


I said the Bears were being underrated, and I stand by that.  I'll get more into that in my next picks post, but they established themselves here.
Baltimore Ravens def. Carolina Panthers

Is anyone really surprised?

Buffalo Bills def. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have problems.  When you can't hold on to a lead like that against a team like Buffalo, look out.  This also probably spells the end for Marvin Lewis in Cincy.
Dallas Cowboys def. Detroit Lions

Detroit got beat, and they got beat bad.  Yeah, Dallas came out strong, but Detroit made some mistakes that made this loss hit harder than it should have.

Jacksonville Jaguars def. Cleveland Browns 

David Garrard is one of the most underrated QBs in the NFL, possibly due to playing in the same division as Peyton Manning.  He pulled this game out and got the win like he's been doing all season for Jacksonville.
Kansas City Chiefs def. Arizona Cardinals

Didn't Arizona used to be one of the best teams against the run a year ago?  Everyone knew the offense would change, but it's amazing how much the lack of offense has changed the defense.  Arizona needs a QB and quick.
Green Bay Packers def. Minnesota Vikings

That was an embarrassing loss for the Vikings.  Favre has struggled at times, but this is the first time I thought he hasn't looked like an NFL starter.  He threw inaccurate passes, he made mental mistakes, and he looked completely out of place in the pocket.  The score doesn't tell the whole story of this game, the Vikings could have pulled out the win.  They were matched up well and they didn't execute, and the ensuing firing was completely justified.
New York Jets def. Houston Texans

What happened to the Texans that beat the Colts in week one?  They've become a team that can't close, and that defense is looking helpless without DeMeco Ryans.
Pittsburgh Steelers def. Oakland Raiders

You want to beat the Raiders?  Stop the run.  There's no better team at stopping the run than Pittsburgh, and Oakland showed that their defense definitely needs to improve next year if they want to compete with the elite offenses of the NFL.
Washington Redskins def. Tennessee Titans

Rusty Smith is not the answer for the Titans at QB.  Right now Chris Simms looks like a better option, and I think he would have done better in the clutch than Smith.  Still, Tennessee is most successful when Vince Young is on the field and if they want success they had better find another mobile quarterback, that or completely change offensive philosophy.  It's embarrassing when your running back rushes for a buck thirty and you still lose the game.
New Orleans Saints def. Seattle Seahawks

Don't count New Orleans out yet.  Chris Ivory looks to have emerged as a back that can at least function as a fill-in, but Pierre Thomas still looks like their best option.  If they can have both healthy next season it will be a potent one-two combination.  I don't know where that leaves Reggie Bush, but I say they keep him, maybe in a different role such as wideout or receiving fullback.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. San Francisco 49ers

Maybe I underestimated the Bucs, but looking at the stats it seems like it was a game that San Francisco should've won.  This whole team has been a huge disappointment, and in the end it all comes back to the coach.  I thought Mad Mike was off to a bad start when he pulled his pants down in front of the team, but he seemed to have momentum going into the season.  Where that's all gone is anyone's guess.
Atlanta Falcons def. St. Louis Rams

Atlanta is hot.  You would think that a division where the winner changes every single year would have one of the least impressive playoff teams, but for the second year in a row the opposite is holding true.
New England Patriots def. Indianapolis Colts

The Patriots have Peyton Manning's number, and it doesn't help that half his receiving corps is out with injury.  More importantly, that Patriots secondary seems to be developing into one of the most explosive in the league.
Philadelphia Eagles def. New York Giants

The Giants made it interesting, but the Eagles come out ahead in the end.  I thought the biggest factor was the Giants' lack of passing success, and their injured receivers have a lot to do with that.  The way the Giants played Michael Vick gives me hope for this week's game.
San Diego Chargers def. Denver Broncos

A small spurt gives the Broncos' fans hopes, and a whomping rips it away.  The Broncos still have problems, problems they can hide against middle of the pack teams but that show themselves against potent offensive teams like San Diego.

NFL Week Twelve Predictions

Last minute picks, so they'll come before my thoughts.

New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions

Cleveland has me second-guessing this pick, but Detroit has no Peyton Hillis so I'm going with the Pats.  If Brady doesn't play they might lose, but with the division as tight as it is, a questionable status for Brady means he's playing to me.
Prediction: Patriots

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys

Hard to know what to make of this one.  Betts and Thomas are out for the Saints and Bush is questionable, but Felix Jones is out for Dallas.  This game could come down to passing, and against the pass Dallas has one of the worst scoring defenses while New Orleans has one of the best.
Prediction: Saints

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets

Forget stats, if the Bengals couldn't beat the Bills then they sure as hell can't beat the Jets.
Prediction: Jets

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

The media love affair with the Packers continues.  I watched a breakdown of this game and all they talk about is quarterbacks and their stats, nevermind that Atlanta has one of the best pass rushes in the league or that Green Bay is still horrible at protection.  I think the Packers are outmatched, Atlanta has a tough defense, running game, passing attack, and are just better than the Pack.  The Packers are missing their star back, their protection is suspect, and their defense has holes that can be exploited.  The sports media are all picking the Packers, but only because they have an invisible layer of cheese covering their eyes.  This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Falcons

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

Ah, I can finally get back to laughing my ass off at the Bills.
Prediction: Steelers

Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns

Carolina has a porous run defense and Cleveland has Peyton Hillis, no question about this one.
Prediction: Browns

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

About the only thing Tennessee has going right now for them is Chris Johnson.  The Texans are getting beat, but they're getting beat through the air.  Against a green rookie, I say their pass defense gets shored up and they pull things together, at least for a game.
Prediction: Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants

The injury list for the Giants is stunning, almost every one of their starters seems to be listed as at least probable.  The injury report isn't great for Jacksonville either, both Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Sims-Walker are listed as questionable.  If they're out this game is going to New York, but even if they play I have questions.  New York has generated 27 sacks and 10 interceptions on defense, Jacksonville has given up 24 sacks and 15 picks.  Defense wins here, I gotta go with the Giants.
Prediction: Giants

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins

Ugh, this is a hard pick for me.  On paper Minnesota has a big edge in pass defense and run defense, and momentum from a new coach might get them to pick up a win.  Washington is another team that looks like it's missing almost all of its starters.  Both Clinton Portis and Ryan Torrain are out, and their entire defense, half their offensive line, and their best receiver are questionable.  Minnesota's probably going to be without Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice, and Favre could be the x-factor in this.  If he plays like he did last week the Vikings have no chance, and his play makes me question this pick.  Still, the Vikings outmatch Washington enough that I'm tentatively picking them to win.
Prediction: Vikings

Miami Dolphins @ Oakland Raiders

Both teams have mediocre rush defenses, but when the Oakland running game gets going so does their passing game.  Miami's passing game has struggled regardless, so I'll take the silver and black.  This is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks

Both rush defenses are evenly matched, but the Seahawks are near the bottom of the league in rush offense while the Chiefs are right at the top.  If the Chiefs play their game, running the ball, they should come out with a win.
Prediction: Chiefs

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Baltimore Ravens

The Buccaneers' run game has been improving, but the Ravens' run defense is solid.  The game will probably come down to Josh Freeman vs. Joe Flacco, and it is very evenly matched.  Too close for me to call, but in the end I have to go with Baltimore's advantage in the run game and playing at home.
Prediction: Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

The media love affair with Green Bay works two ways, they also have it in for Chicago.  Again I watched a preview of the games, and what do they focus on?  Chicago's offensive line.  Not one mention of their shut-down defense, not one mention of their previous success against Michael Vick, not one mention of how well their defense matches up, not one mention of Eagles' injuries.  That's fine, that works, it just makes it all the more sweeter when I get to say I told you so.  The Bears match up well.  New York was able to contain Vick to a degree last week, and this Bears defense has been playing extremely well all season.  They should be able to hold Vick to average numbers, do not expect another game from him like the one he had in Washington.  He will put up points, though, and the question will be if the Chicago offense can keep up.  With their star cornerback out, I think Cutler and company have a chance.  This is my upset of the week.
Prediction: Bears

St. Louis Rams @ Denver Broncos

The Rams have been surprisingly quiet running the ball this year, but the Broncos have been even worse.  The Rams are ranked ninth in rush defense, the Broncos 31st.  Passing could be key for the Broncos, they have the Rams as outmatched in the pass game as the Rams have them outmatched in the run game.  This game will come down to who will be able to dictate pace, and I'm going with the Broncos to bounce back after a tough week.
Prediction: Broncos

San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts

Both teams are tearing it up through the air, but the Chargers are number one in pass defense while the Colts are sitting at eighth.  San Diego has a multitude of injuries, though, and I think they hurt the Chargers more, despite Indy's bench starting to resemble an emergency room waiting area.  I just don't see the Chargers winning with so many offensive playmakers out.
Prediction: Colts

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Despite all the bad talk, Troy Smith didn't have that bad of a game.  It's his team that really seemed to let him down, so the Niners win in the QB comparison.  In terms of defending the pass, the Niners come out ahead as well.  The Niners can defend the run, the Cardinals can't, and though the Niners are disappointing in the run game this year, they're still a good deal better than the Cards.  The Niners should have the edge on paper, the only thing that could kill them is a breakdown like the ones they've had throughout the season.  Like Minnesota I'm reluctant to take them, but they match up extremely well so I have to ignore intangibles.
Prediction: 49ers

NFL Week Eleven Predictions

Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins

Miami finally looked like its passing game wasn't holding back its offense last week, and I wouldn't underestimate third-stringer Tyler Thigpen.  He's a good quarterback, and he's got a couple of weapons on offense.  Consistently underrated, though, is the Bears' defense, which is number two in the league against the run and among the top in takeaways.  Miami is 25th in the league in interceptions, tied for 24th in fumbles, and could struggle against Julius Peppers and company with their starting left tackle out.  Miami has also done poorly at home, and with a tough schedule coming up I expect the Bears to take advantage of a winnable game.
Prediction: Bears

Baltimore Ravens @ Carolina Panthers

The Ravens are in the playoff hunt, the Panthers are spiraling rapidly.
Prediction: Ravens

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bills lost eight games before picking up their first win last week, the Bengals have lost six straight, they should call this the basement bowl.  I actually don't know where to go on this one, the teams are pretty evenly matched in the passing game, but the Bills have a distinct edge in rushing.  Quarterbacks could be the difference, and although Palmer has struggled, the Bengals defense has an edge on turnovers, so I'm going with the Bengals.
Prediction: Bengals

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are getting things going, and the Lions are slumping.  The Cowboys have their running and passing games going, and the Detroit defense is giving up.  At home in Dallas, I'll take the Boys to win two straight.
Prediction: Cowboys

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Both teams are evenly matched on the ground, the difference will be through the air.  Cleveland is missing Josh Cribbs, and David Garrard has more experience than Colt McCoy.  Add that to homefield advantage, and the Jaguars look poised to stay in the race for the AFC South.
Prediction: Jaguars

Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs

The running game for these two teams is like night and day.  KC might be slumping a bit, but they should be able to run over an Arizona team that's equally good at shooting themselves in their feet.
Prediction: Chiefs

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have a huge edge in the running game, having a much better game on offense with AP and sitting 11 places higher than the Pack in rankings.  The Packers could rack up the sacks, but with the trouble they're having against the run AP could be the difference in this game.  At home, I'll take the Vikings to beat the Pack.  This is my upset of the week.
Prediction: Vikings

Houston Texans @ New York Jets

The Jets haven't exactly been a well-oiled machine, but the Texans are having huge defensive problems.  As long as they can maintain balance, the Jets should win.
Prediction: Jets

Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Raiders have rocketed ahead of the Steelers in rushing in recent weeks, but the Steelers still have them beat in rush defense.  The Steelers are slumping against the pass and the Raiders' pass D is turning it up, but I still trust Big Ben more than Jason Campbell.
Prediction: Steelers

Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans

The Redskins are going to have a heap of trouble against Chris Johnson.
Prediction: Titans

Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints

Neither team is doing very well on either side of the ball rushing.  Both teams have also had ups and downs passing on offense, but the Saints are first against the pass while the Seahawks are 28th.  The Saints should show improvement at this point in the season
Prediction: Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers

Both teams depend on the run game to set up the pass and the Bucs are really getting fired up rushing and passing, but the Niners have them totally outmatched on defense.  In addition, Troy Smith is heating up at the right time, and the Niners have homefield advantage.  This is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: 49ers

Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams

The Rams have been surprising some people this season, but the Falcons are red hot.  They're not going to let up in St. Louis.
Prediction: Falcons

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

Neither team stands out in the run game on either side of the ball, this game will come down to passing.  These teams are very evenly matched there, and I have to go with New England due to injuries at receiver, that and I get burned every time I pick against them.
Prediction: Patriots

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

We'll finally see if Michael Vick is unstoppable.  The Giants' defense might stop Vick, but I think the difference will be injuries.  The Giants are banged up at key positions on offense, and they're slumping without those players.  This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Eagles

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

The top two passing teams ion the league go up against each other.  The Chargers have the edge in defense in yards, but are less successful at scoring defense.  The Broncos are far worse, though, and Phillip Rivers should be able to outscore Kyle Orton.
Prediction: Chargers

NFL Week Ten Thoughts

Atlanta Falcons def. Baltimore Ravens


I should've taken this early sign of fallibility from my gut as an omen, four games right, dear Christ.  At least with this one I knew the game would be close, I don't think I'll underestimate the Falcons again this season.
Buffalo Bills def. Detroit Lions

Gah, my 0-16 prediction fall to shambles with the rest of my predictions this week!  Detroit looked like they were at least playing disciplined early on, they seem like a less confident and organized group in recent weeks.  Jim Schwartz is going to be on the hotseat if he can't get this team back to close to .500.
Chicago Bears def. Minnesota Vikings

Told you so.
New York Jets def. Cleveland Browns

That New England game last week confuses me more than ever now, I don't understand how they can hold Brady like they did and get killed by Sanchez.  He's actually starting to look better, they need him to make that jump instead of just relegating him to checkdowns.
Indianapolis Colts def. Cincinnati Bengals

No surprises here, which is a rare occurrence this past week.
Jacksonville Jaguars def. Houston Texans

Dear god, if you're going to bat the ball at the last minute then bat it AWAY from the field of play.  The Texans are a team that could be winning games, I like Gary Kubiak but he could be gone after this season.
Miami Dolphins def. Tennessee Titans
This confuses me a bit, maybe Miami's better than I give them credit for.  Chris Johnson rushed for almost 120 and the Titans still lost, but the Dolphins have to prove to me that they can maintain success.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Carolina Panthers

Carolina looks dire.

Denver Broncos def. Kansas City Chiefs

What happened to the Broncos?  Is McDaniels actually gaining control of his locker room?  Perhaps I have underestimated them.

Seattle Seahawks def. Arizona Cardinals

This was embarrassing for the head coach more than anyone, Ken Wisenhunt comes from a defensive tradition and his D should be playing better ball than that.  They've got problems that they'll need to set straight in the offseason.

Dallas Cowboys def. New York Giants

I expected the Cowboys to play better, but to win?  Against the Giants?  The previously thought to be the best team in the NFC Giants?  Maybe the Cowboys aren't as dead as everyone thought, at the very least they're not the easy win they were starting to look like to everyone.
San Francisco 49ers def. St. Louis Rams

Screw you Mike Singletary, stop making my life hard.  I think the Niners are going to roll and you field a circus that can't win a game to save their hides, now that your team has basically no chance of making the playoffs you start winning, and with Troy Smith nonetheless.
New England Patriots def. Pittsburgh Steelers

This is my WTF game of the past week.  New England was absolutely gouged by the Browns' running game two weeks ago, you would think they would get killed by Rashard Mendenhall and company, but they manage to hold them successfully.  Speaking of Pittsburgh, where's that shut-down defense they had in the first half of the season?  Yeah, they're still solid against the run, but they're getting gouged through the air.  Pittsburgh has some real problems, it would be the dropoff of the decade if they missed the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles def. Washington Redskins

Don't feel bad Washington fans, Michael Vick is really showing how good he is, and he's got a great cast backing him up.  I won't say the Redskins don't have issues, but going from 4-12 to playoff contention in one season was a pretty unlikely wish anyways.

NFL Week Ten Predictions

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons

This is going to be a good game.  Both teams are ranked extremely close to each other in rushing on both sides of the ball, with Atlanta holding a slight edge on defense.  Atlanta is getting killed through the air on defense, while Baltimore is in the top 10.  Both teams are among the best in the league in scoring defense, though.  They're both very similar in passing offense, both in yards and points, and both among the best in the league in sacks allowed and interceptions.  This game is going to have to come down to intangibles.  Flacco and company have let me down this season and Baltimore is on the road, but Atlanta also has come close to losing to some teams that are not as good as Baltimore.  My gut says go with the Ravens.
Prediction Ravens

Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills

Detroit can hang with the big boys like the Jets, they can beat the Bills, that is unless they have Ndamukong Suh handle kicking duties again.  The Bills always make it interesting, though, so this is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Lions

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Oh, the Vikings are going to kill them!  Oh, Favre is completely back, forget everything that happened up until last week!  Oh, Simeon Rice is going to explode after sitting out all of the pre-season and the first nine weeks of the regular season!  Oh, Adrian Peterson is going to run all over them!

I think the Bears have become the team that everyone likes to dump on.  Sometimes it's warranted, but more often than not it's unfounded.  I still run into people who have a love affair with the Packers even after they struggled in recent weeks, and the Vikings finally have one good game and all of the sudden people act like they're back to last season's form, but the Bears, oh no, they're pretenders.  It's crap, people are still judging the NFC North by last season's performance, but I think they may need a memory refresher.  Week 16, the Vikings come into Soldier Field heavy favorites on the way to the NFC Championship Game, and yet the lowly Bears manufacture a late comeback and beat the immortal Brett Favre, while the entire Vikings team is playing better football than they are this year, in overtime 36-30.  The Bears are finding ways to win against good teams like the Packers, just like they found a way to win against the Vikings last season.  They are playing shut-down rush defense, they are not allowing scoring through the air, they are getting turnovers, and they are executing on offense despite problems.

Maybe the Vikings will get to Cutler, that's my biggest concern, but our defense is solid and should be able to be just as imposing against a Minnesota line that hasn't looked like itself this season.  This might be some sentimentality on my part, but at home I have to take the Bears, and then maybe we can finally put an end to the statements that they're the worst team in the division.  This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Bears

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns

Cleveland's heating up right now and the Jets are struggling, but can they really get by New York's run defense?  Maybe not, but the Browns shut down Tom Brady and I see no reason why Mark Sanchez will have any easier of a game.  This is my upset of the week.
Prediction: Browns

Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts

I've lost faith in the Colts, but I've lost much more in the Bengals.  Marvin Lewis might want to start looking for a new job.
Prediction: Colts

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville just doesn't have the pressure or the secondary to make me think they can stop Matt Schaub.
Prediction: Texans

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins

The Titans are going to continue rolling, moreso with Randy Moss on board.
Prediction: Dolphins

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs lose at home to the Panthers?  Maybe I should start a counter for the cats of how many more losses they have to suffer through this season.
Prediction: Buccaneers

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

The Broncos are imploding, coach McDaniels is losing control fast.  They lose one of their captains this week, and KC will make them pay for it.
Prediction: Chiefs

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Both teams are bad on both sides of the ball running, this game is going to come down to passing.  They're both bad in defending the pass in terms of yards, and in putting up yards through the air.  Neither team ranks very well in interceptions on offense, but where Seattle isn't creating turnovers on defense Arizona is, so I have to give it to them.
Prediction: Cardinals

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

Jerry Jones is tossing Jason Garrett right into the fire by having his first game as head coach be at home against arguably the best team in the NFC right now, Cowboys won't get back on track this week.
Prediction: Giants

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Niners are hurting and struggling, Rams are making the most of their opportunities.  Sam Bradford should be able to take the Rams to a division victory.
Prediction: Rams

New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams' recent struggles make me hesitant with this pick, but New England is getting killed by the run.
Prediction: Steelers

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

Vick and the Eagles should put the hurt on a struggling Washington team at home.
Prediction: Eagles

NFL Week Nine Thoughts

New York Jets def. Detroit Lions

I'd be a little disappointed if I were a Jets' fan.  Yes, Sanchez led some nice drives at the end of he game, but he and the offense struggled in the game as well.  They also shouldn't forget that Detroit's kicker went down and that it probably gave them the game, I wouldn't be too happy with that win if I were Rex Ryan.

Baltimore Ravens def. Miami Dolphins

My upset choices this week were basically Miami and Cleveland, and I thought Miami had the better chance of the two.  This game played out exactly as I expected, the only thing that surprises me is how wrong I was about the other game.

Cleveland Browns def. New England Patriots

What happened here?  If you were to tell me the Browns would beat the Patriots I might say there's an outside chance, but a whomping like this?  What it really came down to was defense, Brady had an amazing game, but the Pats had only 68 rushing yards.  Cleveland tore it up on the ground, and Colt McCoy had a solid game.  I think Cleveland just provided a road map of how to beat the Pats.

San Diego Chargers def. Houston Texans

The rest of the team is finally allowing Phillip Rivers to win the game instead of losing it for him.  That defense is still shaky, and I still don't expect San Diego to make a run, but they're at least getting back on track.  The Texans are in big trouble with their division starting to take shape.

Chicago Bears def. Buffalo Bills

I'd like to have seen a bigger margin of victory, but the Bills are better than their record.  I like the commitment to the run, but the lack of production is still there and I doubt we'll be able to stick to it with better teams.  What I would have liked to seen more of is running to set up the pass, the Bills decided to commit extra men to the box early on and too often we ran right into a blitz, when the line is stacked we need to be able to check out of a run and victimize opponents through the air.

Minnesota Vikings def. Arizona Cardinals

This game surprised me a lot.  AP was held to around 80 yards rushing, and Favre ended up being the one who saved the day for the Vikings.  I thought it would be the other way around.

Atlanta Falcons def. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

You can talk about the Bucs' failure to execute on fourth down late in the game, but Atlanta has a solid defense.  The problem was a young Bucs' defense simply being outmatched against Matt Ryan and company.

New Orleans Saints def. Carolina Panthers

Is anyone really surprised?

New York Giants def. Seattle Seahawks


Is anyone really surprised?

Philadelphia Eagles def. Indianapolis Colts

Losing receivers left and right is not helping Peyton at all, and I was a bit surprised at how much success the Eagles had against an Indy defense that was just starting to hit its stride.  The Philly D showed up big as well, and proved that Peyton Manning is human after all.

Oakland Raiders def. Kansas City Chiefs

What really surprised me is how well the Raiders were able to move the ball against KC.  Darren McFadden is finally starting to prove his worth, and he's becoming key to this team's success.

Green Bay Packers def. Dallas Cowboys

What a way for Wade Phillips to go out, that was just embarrassing.  The Cowboys, with all their problems and with Tony Romo out, could still be winning a lot of these games.  The problem: discipline.  They simply have to play smart, disciplined football, and accomplishing that could be key to whether or not Jason Garrett stays on past this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers def. Cincinnati Bengals

I'm surprised at the push the Bengals made late, I think something is definitely different about this Steelers' defense right now.  Still, I didn't expect them to pull of any upset.

NFL Week Nine Predictions

New York Jets @ Detroit Lions

It's hard to have confidence in the Jets after last week's loss, and the Lions are always a threat, but I believe the Jets win out in what will turn out to be a defensive battle.  This is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Jets

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens

Byes actually make me nervous, and Baltimore has been up and down at times.  Miami has been up and down as well, but is coming off a big win last week.  I like the Ravens at home, but I have to go with the Dolphins because all the other upsets this week are killers.  This is my upset of the week.
Prediction: Dolphins

New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns

Cleveland has surprised a few times this year, but you have to get up pretty early to beat Belichick, and Eric Mangini seems like the type to sleep in occasionally.
Prediction: Patriots

San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans

The Chargers stack up well against the run and can make the Texans one-dimensional, and I don't have a lot of confidence in that Texans' secondary right now
Prediction: Chargers

Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills

No real home team here, although the Bills have been here before.  They are coming off two tight losses in OT and are putting some points on the board.  Still, they are porous against the run and I don't believe they're going to turn the corner against the Bears and their turnover-happy D.
Prediction: Bears

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings

Arizona Cardinals are 29th in the league against the run.  With AP in the opposing backfield this is a no-brainer.
Prediction: Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

That young Tampa D is just too green to make me think that Roddy White, Anthony Gonzalez, and Michael Turner won't walk all over them.
Prediction: Falcons

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Saints just won a big game against a good team, Panthers are still sliding.
Prediction: Saints

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks

New York is rolling, and I have no reason to think they will let up against Seattle
Prediction: Giants

Indianapolis Colts @ Philadelphia Eagles

I must tentatively go with the Colts here.  They've been beaten by balance this season, and with Vick coming back Philly has plenty of that.  They're also missing some players on offense, and the Philly secondary isn't half bad.  Still, if the Colts beat Houston then they should be able to beat Philly.
Prediction: Colts

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders

The Chiefs are seventh in the league against the run, the Raiders are 26th.  The Raiders are 5th against the pass, the Chiefs are 23rd.  These two teams are strong on defense where the other is weak on offense and that will make for an intriguing matchup, but with Nnamdi Asomugha out I have to lean towards the Chiefs.  This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Chiefs

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Cowboys look atrocious right now, I wouldn't pick them to beat Carolina.
Prediction: Packers

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

On the road after a tough loss and with some apparent problems this could be a dangerous pick, but I still can't go with the Bengals after what they've shown so far this season.
Prediction: Steelers

NFL Week Eight Thoughts

San Francisco 49ers def. Denver Broncos

This game says more about Denver than it does about San Fran, they have some real problems that need to get cleaned up fast.

Jacksonville Jaguars def. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is in a really bad way right now.  They matched up well against Jacksonville and should have at least made it close, instead due to a bunch of bobbled catches turned into picks and more mistakes they got manhandled.  Early prediction, neither Wade nor his staff returns next season.

Miami Dolphins def. Cincinnati Bengals

A little closer than I expected, but the game mostly unfolded as expected.  Cincy is having some major problems on offense.

Buffalo Bills def. Kansas City Chiefs

Two overtime losses in a row, could this be an early sign that the Bills are about to turn the corner?  Let's hope not.

Detroit Lions def. Washington Redskins

That pass defense of Washington's is bad, and their pass offense has hit a wall as well.  This just makes it all the more tough to take the loss to Washington that the Bears suffered the week before.

St. Louis Rams def. Carolina Panthers

Hmmm...the Panthers lost, whaddya know?

Green Bay Packers def. New York Jets

This game was winnable for the Jets.  Anchors are still praising Mark Sanchez, but he's never going to be a longterm starter until he can press the ball upfield.  Captain Checkdown strikes again.

San Diego Chargers def. Tennessee Titans

San Diego finally manages not to disappoint.  I wouldn't get too excited if I were a fan, though.

New England Patriots def. Minnesota Vikings

This team is in dire straits.  Childress is starting to look like a coach who's time is winding down, going haywire on players for mistakes they didn't make.  That is, of course, except for his geriatric pick machine who can do no wrong.  On top of that, one of the most incompetent owners in the league comes out and says he considered firing Childress and keeping Randy Moss, would've been the first public move of his I'd approve of.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Arizona Cardinals

With almost 400 yards of offense from the starting QB/RB combo on Tampa Bay's side, there's no way this game should have been as close as a field goal.  Still, it's a start for this young team.  Arizona, on the other hand, continues their spiral without a strong QB at the helm.

Oakland Raiders def. Seattle Seahawks

These two teams continue to confound me in picks, but one thing's for sure, I'm not taking Oakland lightly anymore.  They may not be playoff contenders, but they're still a threat on any Sunday.

New Orleans Saints def. Pittsburgh Steelers

This is as confusing as ever.  Pittsburgh rolled through the first four games without their starting QB, New Orleans was in a downward spiral.  New Orleans was having trouble running the ball, and that allowed teams to shut down their passing attack.  The Steelers had one of the best defenses and running games in the NFL coming into this game, and the New Orleans defense wasn't anything to write home about.  Still, this game came down to Big Ben not being able to get the Steelers into the end zone, they might not be as good a team as everyone thought if they don't have a QB they can turn to in those situations.

Indianapolis Colts def. Houston Texans

Between injuries to the Colts and the number of yards Foster put up on them (again), this came as a surprise to me.  Still, the X-factor was, as it usually is in a Colts' win, Peyton Manning.  I still think the Colts will have less success against better secondaries with their best receivers out, and Houston has some holes in what was once one of the best secondaries in the league.

NFL Week Eight Predictions

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers

It's hard to pick the Broncos after last week's thrashing, but it's even harder to pick the Niners after they dropped a game to a team that is arguably the worst in football.
Prediction: 49ers

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys

The Jaguars are porous against the pass, and even worse against the run.  The Cowboys might be missing their starting QB, but their running game should get going in a big way against the Jaguars' D.
Prediction: Cowboys

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Dolphins just had a tough, hard-fought loss against the Steelers, they're on a down streak that has to turn around eventually, and they're not playing at home.  That all equates to an advantage for them, and I say the Bengals' troubles continue.
Prediction: Dolphins

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

I almost want to take the upset here, but the Chiefs are on a roll and I don't believe they'll allow the Bills to get their first win.  Six down, eleven to go.
Prediction: Chiefs

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions

I wanted to take the Lions to beat the team they got their first win against last season, but with all the injuries they have I don't think they can overcome the Skins.
Prediction: Redskins

Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams

The Rams couldn't possibly drop two straight to two bad teams after that start they had, can they?  Nah, they won't...probably.
Prediction: Rams

Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets

Despite a win last week, the Packers are still injured and struggling.  They'll continue to struggle against a team like the Jets.
Prediction: Jets

Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are solid against the run and Tennessee gives up a lot of yards against the pass.  The thing that could kill the Chargers is mistakes, but I think with the return of Vincent Jackson the mistakes will go down and the Chargers end their losing streak.  This is my game of the week.
Prediction: Chargers

Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots

This homecoming is going to be a rough one for Randy Moss, New England isn't the greatest team to face when you're on a losing streak.
Prediction: Patriots

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals

The key stat in this game is passing, with both teams struggling running the ball.  Tampa had a breakout performance last week from LeGarrette Blount, though, so they win in that department.  Josh Freeman outperforms Max Hall, and the Bucs pick up a win.
Prediction: Buccaneers

Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders

This could be a close game, but the Raiders are bad in allowing point through the air and I think the Seahawks are able to air it out.  This is my sleeper of the week.
Prediction: Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints

This really is who dat football, as in who dat team on the field?  Not the team that won the Superbowl last year.  Look out Saints, the Steelers are rolling.
Prediction: Steelers

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are really going to struggle without Dallas Clark.  They're banged up across the board, and I expect Houston to sweep them for the first time in history.  This is my upset of the week.
Prediction: Texans