Thursday, April 16, 2009

NFL Schedule

It's playoff season in Chicago, and wouldn't you guess, I'm not paying attention. I'll probably have a post up focusing on the Hawks and Bulls' playoff runs before the end of the week, it's just been something that's slipped right by me as of late.

I've been more interested in the Bears lately, as usual. Things got really frenzied after the Jay Cutler trade, and now it seems as if things are all settling down and we're almost used to having a great quarterback. Although things have predictably settled down, I expect them to heat back up after the draft. I can't see the Bears going into next season without a wide receiver who has some decent experience in the NFL, the big question is how good of a receiver will he be. Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison are still out there, the question with them is will the Bears be willing to pay the price tag they're asking for. I think Harrison is the least likely to be signed, as he's reportedly asking for a much larger sum than most teams reasonably should be expected to grant a receiver his age. Torry Holt's also getting up there in years, but he should come a bit cheaper than Harrison and I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears signed him short-term. This also brings up the question, though, of how many more big moves are the Bears and Jerry Angelo willing to make. They've upgraded some key positions in big ways, but are they going to stop there or go deeper into their cap space to stabilize one more position? One last note on this, Braylon Edwards is still a possibility as is Anquan Boldin, but one seriously has to wonder if the Bears have enough left to trade to make a serious move on either of them. I don't know that trading our second round pick would be a great move, and the question of whether or not anyone would be of interest in a player to player trade is probably know.

I will say this, if Angelo has enough in him for one more big trade Anquan Boldin would be a magnificent addition to the team. If he could pull it off, there is no doubt in my mind we would be thinking Superbowl. Like I said, I don't know if we have the firepower to do that. If it meant giving up our second round pick in addition to a player, I'd almost certainly go for it. I know this is wishful thinking, but I can't help but think of a team with Cutler under center; a solid line featuring Garza, Pace, and Olin Kreutz; Hester and Boldin at wideout and Olsen at tight end; Matt Forte at halfback; our D-line players returning to prime form; a linebacking corps that contains Briggs and Urlacher; and a special teams unit that is one of the best in the league. Adding to the wishes, could you imagine if Hester and Danieal Manning became the return threats we know they can be? A situation like that would make me ecstatic.

That's enough day-dreaming for now, though. There are still a lot of detractors here in Chicago, and rightfully so with our history, but I don't know how much of a right they have to criticize the team now. You look at my perfect scenario and take out all the things that are just wishing: a prime form D-line and return game and Anquan Boldin at wideout, and this still looks like a very solid team. Of our seven losses last season, five were lost by a margin of 2-7 points, and three by a margin of 3 or less. If we can just replicate the defensive season we had last year in terms of points allowed we should, by all rights, have a better year and should make the playoffs, and with a solidified offense I don't think that's wishful thinking at all.

The big question to me is the secondary. Many analysts are saying that if the defensive line can generate better pressure we should see a better secondary, and I'm inclined to agree. However, I can't discount the absence of Mike Brown at safety, or the fact that our corners have struggled in pass coverage. Hopefully, though, new line coach Rod Marinelli is having as big an impact as they say he is, and our line will generate enough pressure to make our secondary more of a threat. We do have to remember that the cover-2 system does rely on consistent pass rushing, and that in that system when the pass rush is consistent interceptions ideally do follow. Our secondary may not be the best in the league, but they have shown that they can generate a decent number of takeaways. If we can return to a high turnover ratio this season, we should be a force to be reckoned with.

Finally, the NFL schedule has been released. The Bears have the easiest schedule in the league. Second and third easiest, the Vikings and Packers. In fact, just assuming the substitution of a .500 team in place of the win less Lions rockets the teams up to 24th, 35th, and 27th. To really get a feel of how the schedules will work out, you have to analyze them. I've decided to do so not all at once, but over the course of the next month. I'll do it team by team and hopefully do one team per day. Always save the best for last, so we'll go with the losingest division in the AFC, the West. I'm actually predicting a good year for most West teams, so why are they the losingest? Very simply, because I'm predicting history, I'm predicting that lightning strikes twice. For the second year in a row, I say a team will go win less and this year that team will be the Raiders. This is not the year for new head coaches to be successful, and Tom Cable is no exception. They have a great deal of rebuilding to do, and I don't see them making very many strides in the off-season. That, combined with getting swept in the division and having games against such standout teams as the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, and Steelers and other teams that I don't think will fall to them given the circumstances, leads me to make this bold prediction. The Raiders will be the new worst team in the NFL, and Tom Cable will be fired on principle.

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